NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	90		Excitement	7.8 [262]		MVP	Horace Grant (ORL): +23.5%
Toronto Raptors	85		Comeback	5.2 [169]		LVP	Morris Peterson (TOR): -20.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Horace Grant	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.15	0.09	0.00	9	90%	0.24	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Monty Williams	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.01	6	83%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	1	75%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Mike Miller	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	11	50%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	20	48%	-0.03	2	-0.05	10	100%	0.06
Troy Hudson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	9	33%	-0.06	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.18	-0.09	-0.08	0.00	4	58%	0.00	5	-0.18	4	100%	0.06

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	12	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	18	40%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Vince Carter	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.03,-0.11	-0.11	0.00	-0.12	-0.01	18	58%	-0.03	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.09	0.01	4	50%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	13	31%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,-0.02,-0.16	-0.16	0.09	-0.24	0.01	14	67%	-0.11	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2	-0.20	-0.15	-0.07	-0.02	7	0%	-0.14	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.5	26.6	19.5	26.5	3.4	33.6	137.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +87.3%

ORL +11.0%

TOR -30.0%

TOR -19.3%

ORL +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	TOR	NBA	ORL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.1	17.6	15.6	102.3	96.6	102.3
season	14.6	16.2		104.6	100.3
opponent	15.6	15.8		100.9	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.3	15.1	14.2	16.9	15.1
TOR	16.9	15.6	19.4	19.1	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Horace Grant	68	69	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.42	9	-4	13	14.6	16.8	-2.21	17.7	17.5	0.21
Mike Miller	65	66	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.30	13	-8	21	14.3	17.3	-3.00	17.8	17.1	0.73
Tracy McGrady	79	79	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.41	8	-3	11	15.1	14.9	0.23	17.9	14.9	3.06
Darrell Armstrong	56	55	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.55	-1	6	-7	14.0	17.0	-3.00	16.9	18.8	-1.89
Pat Garrity	67	68	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.08	9	-4	13	15.1	15.1	-0.07	17.8	17.0	0.82
Don Reid	13	12	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.35	-1	6	-7	11.4	15.7	-4.35	15.7	17.9	-2.28
Troy Hudson	41	41	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.21	7	-2	9	15.9	14.4	1.43	17.9	17.4	0.50
Steven Hunter	11	10	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.07	-3	8	-11	17.0	14.8	2.18	17.1	17.7	-0.61
Patrick Ewing	17	17	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	-0.03	-6	11	-17	18.8	14.2	4.55	18.4	17.5	0.96
Monty Williams	23	23	-0.34	0.84	-1.17	-0.04	-10	15	-25	18.5	13.9	4.64	17.3	17.8	-0.51

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hakeem Olajuwon	26	27	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.04	5	-10	15	16.8	18.0	-1.23	16.9	14.3	2.59
Jerome Williams	61	61	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.08	0	-5	5	18.6	15.4	3.16	15.7	13.8	1.84
Alvin Williams	61	61	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.20	-2	-3	1	17.3	18.5	-1.22	14.4	16.7	-2.38
Vince Carter	59	59	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.39	4	-9	13	17.6	17.7	-0.13	15.8	13.7	2.14
Morris Peterson	42	41	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.06	-15	10	-25	17.3	17.9	-0.58	14.0	16.0	-2.04
Antonio Davis	82	82	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.35	-6	1	-7	17.5	20.2	-2.72	14.7	19.8	-5.09
Chris Childs	41	42	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.49	-2	-3	1	17.1	18.1	-0.96	15.4	14.8	0.60
Keon Clark	68	67	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.40	-9	4	-13	18.2	15.7	2.44	14.8	16.0	-1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.71,0.64,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.74,0.64,0.45,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 105, MIA 103	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.55,0.61,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.71,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.61,0.53,0.72,0.57,0.08,0	91.9%
HOU 113, DAL 111	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.86,0.83,0.7,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.75,0.54,0.34,0.27,0	91.7%
OKC 92, PHI 88	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.37,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.83,0.68,0.45,0.43,0.16,0	91.5%