NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	91		Excitement	2.7 [1190]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +13.0%
Dallas Mavericks	104		Comeback	1.1 [1255]		LVP	Shane Battier (MEM): -6.0%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Solomon	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	9	74%	0.08	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eddie Gill	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	11	56%	0.02	3	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Lorenzen Wright	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	13	59%	0.02	3	-0.03	3	33%	-0.00
Antonis Fotsis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	4	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Buford	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.10	0.00	-0.06	18	35%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Stromile Swift	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	0.00	-0.04	7	19%	-0.06	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Shane Battier	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	0.00	0.04	14	55%	-0.03	3	-0.03	5	80%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.16	0.00	0.03	18	70%	0.13	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	11	67%	0.06	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	15	57%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	8	67%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	7	44%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	3	33%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Eschmeyer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	60%	0.02	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	5	30%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Steve Nash	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	10	40%	0.00	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.0	26.2	16.6	29.2	1.8	27.6	126.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +35.6%

DAL +0.9%

DAL +4.6%

DAL +8.7%

DAL +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	DAL	NBA	MEM	DAL	NBA
this game	17.8	13.8	15.6	98.9	115.6	102.3
season	15.7	14.8		96.0	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.2		105.8	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	18.0	18.9	18.0	16.5	17.8
DAL	12.0	15.4	11.3	17.0	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonis Fotsis	12	11	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-17	21	14.3	18.4	-4.03	13.5	13.8	-0.36
Tony Massenburg	13	14	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.06	-8	-5	-3	18.5	17.7	0.82	14.5	13.6	0.87
Lorenzen Wright	64	62	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.24	-1	-12	11	17.2	19.2	-2.03	13.0	15.4	-2.41
Pau Gasol	61	59	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.07	-7	-6	-1	18.6	16.3	2.28	14.0	13.3	0.73
Stromile Swift	46	45	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.02	-10	-3	-7	17.5	18.2	-0.72	14.2	13.3	0.96
Will Solomon	54	52	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	-8	3	17.5	18.3	-0.73	14.0	13.4	0.64
Eddie Gill	51	52	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.14	-17	4	-21	18.5	17.1	1.38	13.5	14.1	-0.54
Rodney Buford	85	83	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.16	-8	-5	-3	17.6	20.7	-3.11	13.7	14.1	-0.41
Shane Battier	74	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.03	-13	0	-13	18.5	15.2	3.25	13.8	13.6	0.26

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	76	78	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.05	18	-5	23	13.3	16.3	-2.98	18.3	15.1	3.18
Raef LaFrentz	61	62	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.26	25	-12	37	12.4	16.6	-4.21	18.6	16.2	2.48
Steve Nash	44	45	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.27	20	-7	27	11.4	16.0	-4.61	19.0	16.7	2.28
Evan Eschmeyer	30	30	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.03	8	5	3	13.0	14.1	-1.10	17.8	17.9	-0.10
Johnny Newman	40	42	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.06	11	2	9	11.5	15.6	-4.08	18.6	17.2	1.44
Nick Van Exel	50	50	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.18	2	11	-9	15.6	11.5	4.08	17.2	18.6	-1.44
Eduardo Najera	34	34	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.01	8	5	3	15.8	12.5	3.26	18.4	17.5	0.96
Dirk Nowitzki	49	51	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.09	4	9	-5	12.9	14.8	-1.95	17.9	17.8	0.15
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	14	14	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.17	-5	18	-23	16.3	13.3	2.98	15.1	18.3	-3.18
Wang Zhi-zhi	14	14	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.17	-5	18	-23	16.3	13.3	2.98	15.1	18.3	-3.18
Danny Manning	10	10	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	19	-25	19.9	13.0	6.90	16.8	18.0	-1.16
Avery Johnson	28	30	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.44	-15	28	-43	16.9	12.4	4.49	15.3	19.1	-3.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.89,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 83, LAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.83,0.87,0.83,0.86,0.86,0.79,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%
ATL 72, WAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.92,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%
MIA 83, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.82,0.8,0.87,0.81,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.4%