NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	90		Excitement	6.0 [622]		MVP	Tyrone Nesby (WAS): +15.9%
Washington Wizards	97		Comeback	1.2 [1027]		LVP	Jacque Vaughn (ATL): -12.1%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nazr Mohammed	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.03	0.02	9	75%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
DerMarr Johnson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.01	0.08	-0.00	10	50%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Terry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	15	57%	0.13	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	21	53%	0.09	4	-0.12	5	60%	-0.03
Ira Newble	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	7	31%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Hanno Mottola	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	2	37%	-0.05	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12	0.01	-0.12	0.01	5	100%	0.11	5	-0.23	2	100%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrone Nesby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.08	-0.00	4	100%	0.17	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.06
Michael Jordan	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.04	0.07	-0.03	24	48%	0.08	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.04
Courtney Alexander	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	10	70%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	83%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.08	0.06	-0.01	12	36%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	5	56%	-0.02	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	0.00	11	32%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	10	36%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.5	2.5	26.5	15.3	23.6	2.4	36.2	127.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL -25.4%

WAS +24.4%

WAS +0.8%

WAS +49.5%

WAS +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	WAS	NBA	ATL	WAS	NBA
this game	15.7	16.7	15.6	101.1	109.0	102.3
season	15.5	16.5		99.7	102.2
opponent	15.3	15.2		103.9	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.6	17.9	16.2	13.3	15.7
WAS	15.7	15.7	18.1	17.4	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dion Glover	18	18	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.05	8	-15	23	15.2	15.8	-0.54	20.6	15.7	4.82
Mark Strickland	32	33	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.03	1	-8	9	15.3	15.8	-0.48	17.6	16.2	1.43
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	83	82	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.29	0	-7	7	16.0	11.5	4.45	16.9	14.4	2.47
Nazr Mohammed	70	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.17	-5	-2	-3	15.1	17.5	-2.38	17.1	15.4	1.62
Jason Terry	70	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-3	-1	15.2	17.2	-1.98	17.1	15.3	1.82
Jacque Vaughn	50	50	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.34	-2	-5	3	15.8	15.5	0.25	16.2	17.3	-1.07
Hanno Mottola	25	27	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.14	-9	2	-11	16.1	15.5	0.60	15.2	17.4	-2.19
Ira Newble	40	41	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.00	-16	9	-25	16.4	15.0	1.45	14.9	18.2	-3.35
DerMarr Johnson	57	56	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.32	-8	1	-9	15.8	15.3	0.48	16.2	17.6	-1.43

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrone Nesby	40	41	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.23	15	-8	23	15.9	17.4	-1.47	15.8	15.5	0.33
Michael Jordan	70	69	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.31	5	2	3	16.7	16.7	0.03	16.0	14.6	1.36
Etan Thomas	43	45	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.36	2	5	-3	17.1	16.3	0.79	15.9	15.4	0.48
Richard Hamilton	44	46	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.24	3	4	-1	15.7	17.7	-2.07	16.3	15.0	1.35
Tyronn Lue	34	36	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.19	4	3	1	16.1	17.1	-1.05	15.9	15.5	0.40
Chris Whitney	55	53	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.11	3	4	-1	17.1	16.1	1.05	15.5	15.9	-0.40
Courtney Alexander	65	64	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	3	1	17.2	15.5	1.65	15.0	17.2	-2.21
Brendan Haywood	44	42	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	4	-1	17.0	16.4	0.58	16.0	15.3	0.66
Popeye Jones	50	49	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	11	-15	17.1	16.2	0.85	14.8	16.7	-1.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.76,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.61,0.66,0.75,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.81,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.93,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.78,0.68,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 93, ATL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.76,0.83,0.8,0.75,0.7,0.74,0.63,0.64,0.52,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.59,0.69,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.91,0.77,0.74,0.85,0.83,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.83,1	92.7%
DAL 105, POR 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.8,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.81,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.7,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.9,0.84,0.93,0.72,1	92.6%
PHI 100, UTA 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.61,0.61,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.71,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.8,0.71,0.57,0.99,1	92.4%