NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	92		Excitement	10.2 [40]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +31.6%
Portland Trail Blazers	90		Comeback	17.0 [59]		LVP	Rasheed Wallace (POR): -41.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.32	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.32	0.06	0.25	-0.01	20	57%	0.42	1	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Jim Jackson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,0,0,0,0,0,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.01	0.10	0.00	11	57%	0.18	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Brian Grant	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	14	50%	-0.04	2	-0.06	10	70%	-0.02
Kendall Gill	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.27,-0.27,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.22,-0.22	-0.08	-0.14	0.00	12	43%	-0.04	2	-0.18	6	83%	0.03

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.17	0.17	0.04	0.12	-0.00	14	56%	0.17	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	9	67%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	70%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Chris Dudley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rick Brunson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.04	0.00	12	43%	0.04	3	-0.10	4	75%	-0.05
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.19,-0.3	-0.30	-0.14	-0.18	-0.01	16	34%	-0.15	3	-0.15	3	100%	0.01
Scottie Pippen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.3,-0.34,-0.34	-0.34	-0.08	-0.27	-0.01	10	29%	-0.29	1	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.19,-0.23,-0.28,-0.28,-0.35,-0.42	-0.42	-0.12	-0.30	-0.01	21	37%	-0.37	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.2	1.7	27.2	20.7	25.1	1.8	34.1	1.6	19.2	157.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	1.7	16.7	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +93.8%

MIA +18.1%

POR -55.2%

POR -15.6%

MIA +8.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	POR	NBA	MIA	POR	NBA
this game	17.4	16.8	15.6	98.9	96.8	102.3
season	16.5	16.0		96.6	105.0
opponent	15.6	15.8		102.2	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	18.3	15.9	18.1	17.4	17.1	17.4
POR	14.5	16.9	17.1	19.6	16.2	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie House	29	30	0.94	-0.44	1.37	0.70	8	-6	14	17.5	17.3	0.19	18.1	16.2	1.91
Jim Jackson	64	65	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.34	3	-1	4	16.9	18.4	-1.59	17.3	15.7	1.56
Vladimir Stepania	24	25	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.19	7	-5	12	16.9	17.5	-0.65	17.5	16.6	0.93
LaPhonso Ellis	29	30	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.21	5	-3	8	16.8	17.6	-0.87	16.9	16.8	0.04
Kendall Gill	60	59	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.32	1	1	0	17.2	17.6	-0.34	16.6	17.3	-0.72
Eddie Jones	73	73	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.23	-1	3	-4	17.6	16.3	1.34	17.0	16.4	0.56
Alonzo Mourning	75	74	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.21	-2	4	-6	17.5	16.9	0.51	16.7	17.2	-0.47
Brian Grant	46	45	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	-0.09	-8	10	-18	18.6	16.1	2.44	16.4	17.3	-0.94
Rod Strickland	56	55	-0.49	0.99	-1.48	-0.34	-5	7	-12	17.0	17.9	-0.85	16.0	18.1	-2.05

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Kemp	34	32	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.01	6	-8	14	16.5	17.0	-0.53	15.8	18.2	-2.35
Chris Dudley	16	14	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.01	4	-6	10	14.6	17.3	-2.67	14.6	17.8	-3.19
Rick Brunson	16	14	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.01	4	-6	10	14.6	17.3	-2.67	14.6	17.8	-3.19
Steve Kerr	3	3	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.13	-1	-1	0	18.0	16.8	1.20	16.0	17.4	-1.40
Scottie Pippen	54	55	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.19	-1	-1	0	17.0	16.6	0.47	17.7	16.8	0.87
Derek Anderson	57	56	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.30	2	-4	6	16.8	16.9	-0.04	16.7	18.4	-1.74
Damon Stoudamire	73	76	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.22	-2	0	-2	17.5	14.6	2.85	17.9	14.9	3.03
Bonzi Wells	69	70	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.39	0	-2	2	16.4	18.1	-1.68	18.0	15.3	2.72
Ruben Patterson	23	21	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.32	-5	3	-8	17.6	16.6	1.02	15.6	17.9	-2.30
Dale Davis	43	45	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.22	-11	9	-20	16.9	16.8	0.04	18.7	16.1	2.54
Rasheed Wallace	77	79	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.43	-6	4	-10	17.3	14.6	2.67	17.8	14.6	3.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.77,0.81,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.27,0.24,0.17,0.07,0.21,0.17,0.84,0.46,0.32,0.28,0.14,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 118, WAS 116	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.63,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.74,0.82,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.19,0.22,0.14,0.22,0.14,0.59,0.54,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.15,0	88.8%
DET 94, WAS 90	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.63,0.72,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.65,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.73,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.74,0.63,0.78,0.66,0.78,0.57,0.62,0.42,0.27,0.24,0.34,0.32,0.54,0.33,0.58,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.15,0.08,0	88.0%
CHI 116, ORL 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.71,0.8,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.79,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.87,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.72,0.71,0.47,0.32,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.54,0.55,0.73,0.54,0.47,0.36,0.15,0.04,0	88.0%