NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	102		Excitement	4.6 [878]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +15.8%
New York Knicks	97		Comeback	1.0 [655]		LVP	Latrell Sprewell (NYK): -13.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.13,0.16	0.22	-0.03	0.03	17	82%	0.22	2	-0.06	11	82%	0.01
Anthony Mason	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.05	-0.02	8	55%	0.05	1	-0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Darvin Ham	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	4	64%	0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Joel Przybilla	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	67%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Sam Cassell	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0	-0.09	0.02	-0.07	21	48%	0.06	4	-0.06	8	87%	0.03
Jason Caffey	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	12	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13	-0.14	-0.03	-0.04	10	37%	-0.06	4	-0.07	4	75%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kurt Thomas	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	0.00	9	45%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Charlie Ward	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	7	69%	0.05	4	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Allan Houston	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.04,0,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01	-0.01	0.10	-0.06	0.05	29	60%	0.03	2	-0.04	15	93%	0.01
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.05	0.03	10	58%	-0.05	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.05
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	4	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.01	18	33%	-0.12	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.4	2.4	27.2	15.8	29.2	2.4	43.2	140.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +38.1%

MIL +9.6%

MIL +7.3%

NYK -4.9%

NYK -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	NYK	NBA	MIL	NYK	NBA
this game	15.5	14.7	15.6	107.4	101.0	102.3
season	15.3	15.9		104.7	99.6
opponent	15.6	16.0		103.9	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.9	16.0	15.0	16.0	15.5
NYK	16.3	16.0	13.2	13.5	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	80	80	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.19	14	-9	23	14.6	19.8	-5.15	14.6	15.1	-0.44
Sam Cassell	81	82	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.18	12	-7	19	14.8	19.1	-4.23	14.5	15.7	-1.19
Ray Allen	70	73	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.29	6	-1	7	15.1	16.4	-1.33	15.1	13.5	1.55
Tim Thomas	69	70	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.37	-2	7	-9	15.0	16.7	-1.69	14.4	15.4	-0.94
Joel Przybilla	35	36	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.08	13	-8	21	14.4	16.1	-1.73	16.2	13.8	2.48
Darvin Ham	46	45	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.33	-3	8	-11	15.3	15.6	-0.35	14.5	14.9	-0.39
Jason Caffey	15	14	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	5	-5	15.9	15.4	0.48	15.4	14.6	0.86
Michael Redd	41	41	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.19	-5	10	-15	17.9	13.6	4.29	14.3	15.0	-0.71
Ervin Johnson	38	39	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.26	-10	15	-25	18.4	13.5	4.93	13.9	15.2	-1.26

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shandon Anderson	23	23	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.13	7	-12	19	14.8	14.7	0.11	18.6	14.5	4.15
Othella Harrington	35	34	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.33	11	-16	27	14.3	14.9	-0.56	16.6	14.8	1.75
Charlie Ward	25	25	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.08	-2	-3	1	15.5	14.4	1.06	16.5	15.1	1.38
Mark Jackson	71	70	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-2	-1	14.4	15.5	-1.06	15.1	16.5	-1.38
Allan Houston	87	86	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.40	1	-6	7	14.7	14.9	-0.21	15.3	16.7	-1.33
Kurt Thomas	88	87	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.33	-5	0	-5	14.5	17.2	-2.78	15.2	18.4	-3.18
Marcus Camby	69	69	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.05	-16	11	-27	15.2	13.5	1.69	15.2	16.0	-0.79
Latrell Sprewell	82	81	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.17	-18	13	-31	14.7	14.7	-0.02	14.7	19.9	-5.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.24,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.25,0.21,0.05,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 103, SAC 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.32,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.18,0.24,0.16,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.19,0.07,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.18,0.19,0.34,0.11,0.02,0	94.8%
DAL 128, NOP 120	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.13,0.05,0.06,0.14,0.21,0.04,0,0	94.7%
CLE 110, DEN 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.22,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.25,0.14,0.16,0.09,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.15,0.01,0.01,0,0	94.6%