NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	117		Excitement	6.0 [607]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +20.3%
Dallas Mavericks	125		Comeback	2.5 [611]		LVP	Terrell Brandon (MIN): -17.5%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.11	0.13	0.01	0.04	15	73%	0.12	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	10	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Kevin Garnett	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.01	0.03	13	68%	0.09	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.04	0.01	11	55%	0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.01	9	61%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	5	55%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Gary Trent	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	11	57%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Terrell Brandon	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18	-0.13	-0.04	0.01	16	25%	-0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.11	0.07	-0.02	18	68%	0.25	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.02
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.03	-0.00	10	73%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	4	83%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Juwan Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	10	68%	0.09	4	-0.05	8	87%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	15	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	7	71%	0.01
Steve Nash	0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	17	66%	0.14	4	-0.12	4	100%	0.02
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Eschmeyer	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	4	20%	-0.06	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	2.5	28.2	16.8	25.4	2.7	33.5	135.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +29.4%

DAL +10.9%

DAL +0.2%

DAL +3.1%

DAL +6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DAL	NBA	MIN	DAL	NBA
this game	14.4	15.1	15.6	119.4	128.9	102.3
season	15.0	14.8		106.7	109.6
opponent	15.5	16.1		105.8	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.3	15.0	16.3	13.0	14.4
DAL	14.3	13.2	14.3	18.9	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Mitchell	10	10	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.03	-2	-6	4	16.1	14.2	1.87	15.4	15.1	0.31
Rasho Nesterovic	48	48	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.10	-1	-7	6	13.1	15.7	-2.66	14.2	16.0	-1.73
Chauncey Billups	27	26	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.02	-5	-3	-2	15.5	14.0	1.52	16.9	14.5	2.41
Joe Smith	71	71	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.18	-3	-5	2	14.8	13.4	1.40	13.8	18.8	-4.98
Anthony Peeler	41	42	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.21	-3	-5	2	14.3	14.5	-0.22	16.0	14.4	1.63
Terrell Brandon	71	71	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.25	-3	-5	2	14.0	15.5	-1.52	14.5	16.9	-2.41
Gary Trent	49	47	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.10	-9	1	-10	15.7	13.1	2.55	16.1	14.2	1.82
Kevin Garnett	82	80	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	-3	-2	14.1	16.0	-1.89	15.7	12.2	3.57
Wally Szczerbiak	91	90	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.26	-9	1	-10	14.3	16.0	-1.70	15.1	15.0	0.13

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	86	87	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.27	11	-3	14	15.4	13.1	2.29	14.6	13.1	1.50
Dirk Nowitzki	87	88	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.21	10	-2	12	15.6	11.1	4.49	14.3	15.7	-1.43
Michael Finley	93	93	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.22	8	0	8	15.3	10.7	4.56	14.4	14.4	0.02
Steve Nash	79	81	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.27	3	5	-2	14.9	16.2	-1.28	14.0	16.6	-2.70
Tim Hardaway	42	39	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.09	8	0	8	15.9	14.5	1.42	15.2	13.9	1.35
Evan Eschmeyer	40	40	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.00	8	0	8	14.4	15.6	-1.19	14.8	14.2	0.60
Eduardo Najera	31	33	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	8	-8	14.2	15.6	-1.41	14.9	14.2	0.69
Adrian Griffin	27	29	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.15	-8	16	-24	13.7	15.7	-1.92	13.6	14.8	-1.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.32,0.37,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.71,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 83, WAS 93	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.67,0.72,0.9,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
ORL 93, WAS 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.82,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1	94.3%
PHX 92, POR 100	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.37,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.69,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.91,0.88,0.95,0.97,0.98,1,0.99,1	94.3%