NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	86		Excitement	8.8 [125]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (DEN): +36.7%
Denver Nuggets	89		Comeback	8.4 [284]		LVP	George McCloud (DEN): -32.6%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Massenburg	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	5	75%	0.09	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Pau Gasol	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.14,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	14	45%	0.01	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.04
Ike Austin	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	10	20%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Solomon	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	9	44%	-0.04	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Buford	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	14	35%	-0.09	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Brevin Knight	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.14	-0.04	-0.01	10	38%	-0.04	5	-0.13	1	0%	-0.02
Grant Long	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.18	-0.07	-0.11	0.00	4	56%	0.04	3	-0.22	8	87%	0.09
Shane Battier	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.08,-0.19,-0.19	0.00	-0.20	-0.01	14	59%	0.02	3	-0.20	4	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,-0.11,0.12,0.37	0.37	0.05	0.32	0.00	22	54%	0.50	1	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawnelle Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.02	3	86%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	11	52%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zendon Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	8	39%	-0.01	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
James Posey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	6	37%	-0.05	3	-0.09	4	50%	-0.04
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.06,0,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	20	43%	-0.13	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.24,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33	-0.33	-0.18	-0.16	-0.01	6	0%	-0.14	4	-0.19	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.3	26.6	16.3	22.5	2.6	36.1	129.9
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +54.8%

MEM -45.6%

DEN +31.8%

DEN +12.6%

MEM -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	DEN	NBA	MEM	DEN	NBA
this game	15.6	14.2	15.6	89.6	91.8	102.3
season	15.7	16.1		96.0	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.2		105.9	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	16.1	14.6	16.9	15.1	15.6
DEN	13.4	13.6	14.4	15.5	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Massenburg	33	35	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.11	0	-3	3	16.2	15.3	0.86	14.2	14.2	-0.01
Ike Austin	50	48	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	2	-7	16.4	14.8	1.66	13.6	14.8	-1.15
Will Solomon	34	36	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.23	-2	-1	-1	16.2	15.3	0.87	13.2	14.8	-1.52
Rodney Buford	81	80	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.33	1	-4	5	15.5	16.7	-1.21	14.7	11.6	3.10
Grant Long	55	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.37	2	-5	7	15.2	16.3	-1.13	15.1	12.9	2.27
Pau Gasol	68	69	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.27	-3	0	-3	15.4	16.2	-0.75	13.9	14.9	-1.02
Brevin Knight	72	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.38	-1	-2	1	15.1	17.3	-2.25	14.1	14.6	-0.53
Shane Battier	87	88	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.41	-7	4	-11	15.9	13.4	2.43	14.2	14.7	-0.51

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Calbert Cheaney	46	45	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.60	3	0	3	13.5	14.8	-1.30	16.2	15.2	1.00
Nick Van Exel	84	82	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.39	7	-4	11	14.5	12.2	2.28	15.5	16.7	-1.25
Voshon Lenard	77	76	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.08	12	-9	21	14.6	12.7	1.90	15.5	16.1	-0.64
Ryan Bowen	55	55	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.27	3	0	3	14.4	14.0	0.36	15.1	16.3	-1.17
Scott Williams	30	28	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.21	3	0	3	13.9	14.4	-0.49	18.0	14.7	3.32
James Posey	41	41	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.23	-2	5	-7	13.8	14.5	-0.70	16.2	15.2	1.00
Zendon Hamilton	10	10	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.04	6	-3	9	13.5	14.3	-0.79	16.6	15.5	1.07
Raef LaFrentz	50	51	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.35	-10	13	-23	15.0	13.3	1.68	14.7	16.7	-1.96
George McCloud	46	46	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.07	1	2	-1	14.4	14.1	0.31	15.7	15.6	0.14
Shawnelle Scott	28	27	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.00	-3	6	-9	14.5	14.1	0.36	14.7	16.0	-1.31
Avery Johnson	18	19	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.04	-5	8	-13	11.2	14.9	-3.73	15.6	15.7	-0.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.2,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.83,0.75,0.46,0.32,0.59,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 92, ATL 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.57,0.63,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.69,0.46,0.35,0.73,1	91.7%
BKN 93, ORL 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.52,0.53,0.67,0.59,0.59,0.73,0.53,0.36,0.24,0.42,1	90.7%
TOR 84, ATL 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.36,0.25,0.23,0.37,0.3,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.83,0.6,0.73,0.39,0.45,0.22,0.42,1	90.2%