NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	88		Excitement	6.0 [611]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (SAC): +14.1%
Sacramento Kings	95		Comeback	1.3 [1154]		LVP	Anthony Carter (MIA): -16.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Grant	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	5	80%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	0.00	9	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Chris Gatling	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	5	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	-0.00	13	54%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jim Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.03	-0.05	0.05	11	68%	0.03	3	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01
Rod Strickland	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	5	54%	-0.00	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.03
Eddie Jones	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	16	39%	-0.09	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.03
Alonzo Mourning	-0.13	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	15	37%	-0.13	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	-0.00	7	94%	0.22	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	5	86%	0.11	3	-0.06	11	91%	0.03
Chris Webber	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.07	0.06	-0.01	16	50%	0.09	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.04
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.03	0.00	6	60%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Vlade Divac	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.01	0.00	16	50%	-0.00	3	-0.07	14	86%	0.02
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	2.4	29.6	19.4	23.5	2.3	30.6	132.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +43.0%

SAC +4.7%

MIA -13.3%

SAC +5.9%

SAC +9.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAC	NBA	MIA	SAC	NBA
this game	16.3	15.6	15.6	96.7	105.6	102.3
season	16.5	14.2		96.6	106.6
opponent	15.5	15.8		99.6	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	15.1	18.1	17.6	16.3
SAC	14.9	16.2	16.1	15.1	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Gatling	27	27	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-3	-1	15.3	16.6	-1.31	15.2	15.7	-0.54
Rod Strickland	34	32	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.05	-2	-5	3	17.6	15.4	2.18	17.3	14.6	2.66
Vladimir Stepania	35	33	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.14	1	-8	9	16.1	16.3	-0.18	16.7	14.9	1.74
Brian Grant	27	28	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.17	-2	-5	3	16.0	16.3	-0.31	14.1	16.2	-2.17
LaPhonso Ellis	65	64	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.11	-6	-1	-5	16.0	16.8	-0.83	15.8	15.1	0.69
Alonzo Mourning	56	57	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.15	-8	1	-9	16.3	16.1	0.18	14.9	16.7	-1.74
Anthony Carter	62	63	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.25	-5	-2	-3	16.0	16.9	-0.89	14.8	17.4	-2.68
Eddie Jones	81	80	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-4	1	16.1	17.4	-1.29	15.6	15.5	0.08
Jim Jackson	68	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.28	-6	-1	-5	16.7	15.0	1.68	16.1	14.1	1.97

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Peja Stojakovic	82	81	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.33	4	3	1	15.6	15.6	-0.06	15.8	19.8	-3.99
Scot Pollard	50	52	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.22	5	2	3	16.0	15.0	1.02	16.0	16.6	-0.59
Mike Bibby	67	69	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.16	7	0	7	15.2	16.7	-1.52	16.0	17.0	-0.93
Doug Christie	72	75	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.15	7	0	7	15.4	16.4	-1.03	16.1	17.2	-1.13
Chris Webber	55	53	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.26	2	5	-3	15.4	15.9	-0.52	16.4	16.1	0.30
Hedo Turkoglu	39	40	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.18	4	3	1	16.6	14.8	1.76	17.3	15.4	1.91
Bobby Jackson	27	27	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.14	0	7	-7	16.4	15.2	1.15	17.9	15.6	2.33
Vlade Divac	45	45	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	5	-3	14.7	16.4	-1.76	15.8	16.7	-0.94
Jabari Smith	13	13	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.01	4	3	1	16.2	15.5	0.78	16.8	16.2	0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.78,0.72,0.76,0.72,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.79,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.9,0.96,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 105, UTA 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.97,1,0.99,1	94.1%
WAS 97, CHI 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.77,0.75,0.79,0.83,0.82,0.62,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.92,0.94,0.87,0.93,0.98,0.9,0.96,1	94.0%
MIN 102, POR 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.59,0.7,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.85,0.94,0.96,1	94.0%