NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	101		Excitement	7.4 [321]		MVP	Jason Terry (ATL): +9.4%
Seattle SuperSonics	94		Comeback	3.0 [92]		LVP	Chris Crawford (ATL): -18.9%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.09	0.04	0.06	0.01	23	57%	0.17	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.03
Dikembe Mutombo	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,0.01,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	9	65%	0.11	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Lorenzen Wright	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	9	73%	0.12	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Alan Henderson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.00	6	64%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Larry Robinson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.03	0.02	7	67%	0.09	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.16,0,0,0	0.04	-0.04	0.00	8	61%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.13
Ira Bowman	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Crawford	-0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-0.00	11	36%	-0.10	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.01	4	100%	0.14	4	-0.09	3	100%	0.04
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	10	35%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.02	8	70%	0.05	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Emanual Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	0.00	12	54%	-0.01	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Shammond Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,-0.03,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	20	48%	-0.03	1	-0.07	4	75%	0.02
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	21	41%	-0.06	1	-0.09	2	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.2	2.4	25.2	18.0	27.1	1.8	39.2	145.9
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +45.3%

SEA -19.2%

ATL +26.9%

SEA -8.0%

ATL +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	SEA	NBA	ATL	SEA	NBA
this game	15.8	15.2	15.5	107.4	102.2	100.9
season	15.4	15.2		96.0	103.8
opponent	15.7	15.1		103.5	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.9	16.1	13.7	18.7	15.8
SEA	15.7	15.9	15.8	13.2	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	85	84	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.18	14	-7	21	15.3	20.3	-5.02	15.0	16.7	-1.74
Alan Henderson	37	36	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.15	15	-8	23	14.2	16.8	-2.61	17.0	14.0	2.97
DerMarr Johnson	34	33	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.25	10	-3	13	17.0	15.1	1.84	15.1	15.2	-0.16
Larry Robinson	51	46	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.18	7	0	7	15.0	16.7	-1.74	15.6	14.7	0.85
Lorenzen Wright	79	79	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.24	5	2	3	16.5	12.3	4.12	15.1	15.8	-0.71
Chris Crawford	65	65	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.14	0	7	-7	15.9	15.5	0.41	14.6	16.5	-1.92
Brevin Knight	13	14	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.00	1	6	-5	15.4	15.9	-0.48	16.2	15.0	1.24
Dikembe Mutombo	69	66	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.25	-8	15	-23	16.5	13.8	2.67	14.8	16.1	-1.27
Dion Glover	29	30	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	7	-7	14.4	16.4	-2.05	14.3	15.6	-1.28
Ira Bowman	10	10	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.04	-7	14	-21	16.8	15.7	1.12	12.9	15.4	-2.54

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	57	57	0.41	-0.92	1.33	0.03	13	-20	33	14.7	16.0	-1.30	17.7	12.9	4.79
Brent Barry	65	65	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.10	8	-15	23	14.1	17.8	-3.75	16.6	14.0	2.60
Patrick Ewing	51	52	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.06	2	-9	11	15.5	14.7	0.78	15.5	16.1	-0.58
Gary Payton	76	78	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.24	5	-12	17	14.4	18.7	-4.27	16.5	12.3	4.20
Ruben Patterson	76	76	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.29	1	-8	9	15.6	13.2	2.32	16.8	11.6	5.25
Shammond Williams	16	16	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.05	-12	5	-17	18.7	14.4	4.27	12.3	16.5	-4.20
Emanual Davis	27	29	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.19	-15	8	-23	17.8	14.1	3.75	14.0	16.6	-2.60
Vin Baker	54	57	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.29	-15	8	-23	14.9	15.6	-0.66	15.4	16.4	-0.91
Desmond Mason	38	40	-0.93	0.43	-1.36	-0.28	-22	15	-37	15.0	15.3	-0.23	12.0	18.6	-6.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.29,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 88, IND 83	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.71,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.66,0.59,0.65,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.17,0.15,0.06,0.02,0.13,0.31,0.45,0.24,0.09,0	92.8%
DET 105, CHA 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.3,0.21,0.21,0.12,0.1,0.2,0.13,0.14,0.29,0.33,0.16,0	92.3%
NYK 102, MIN 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0	92.0%