NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	85		Excitement	5.9 [609]		MVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): +14.7%
Miami Heat	93		Comeback	1.8 [778]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): -28.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jud Buechler	0.12	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.04	0.01	6	80%	0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Michael Curry	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	5	60%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	6	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Dana Barros	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.05	0.02	8	55%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Billy Owens	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Mateen Cleaves	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	5	18%	-0.08	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Joe Smith	-0.14	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	13	39%	-0.07	1	-0.07	5	40%	-0.02
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.29	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.18,-0.2,-0.25,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.13	-0.14	0.02	30	42%	-0.22	3	-0.07	7	71%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.07	-0.00	5	90%	0.19	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	0.00	0.02	7	78%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.07	-0.01	13	46%	0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	7	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.03
Bruce Bowen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	8	12%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.01	-0.06	0.03	13	59%	-0.07	1	-0.01	13	85%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.24,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.19	-0.09	-0.05	11	37%	-0.07	5	-0.15	8	87%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.6	29.5	17.3	25.1	1.8	32.0	131.6
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +31.2%

MIA +17.5%

MIA +7.7%

DET -6.5%

MIA +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	15.4	15.5	91.4	97.9	100.9
season	14.3	16.3		97.9	98.4
opponent	16.1	15.4		96.9	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.8	14.6	13.5	15.1	15.2
MIA	13.5	14.8	17.1	16.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mateen Cleaves	36	37	0.22	-0.72	0.95	-0.01	8	-16	24	15.7	14.9	0.75	16.3	14.8	1.51
Eric Montross	7	7	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.03	-1	-7	6	16.6	15.1	1.44	15.1	15.4	-0.28
Billy Owens	21	20	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.03	-4	-4	0	14.8	15.4	-0.55	15.8	15.3	0.57
Jud Buechler	38	40	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.09	0	-8	8	14.8	15.6	-0.80	15.5	15.3	0.26
Mikki Moore	27	28	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	-3	-2	16.0	14.9	1.13	14.5	15.8	-1.23
Chucky Atkins	22	23	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.05	-6	-2	-4	14.2	15.6	-1.38	15.5	15.4	0.16
Joe Smith	64	65	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.25	0	-8	8	15.1	15.6	-0.51	15.6	14.9	0.78
Michael Curry	34	34	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	-2	-4	16.5	14.5	2.04	15.3	15.5	-0.16
Jerry Stackhouse	80	81	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.31	-3	-5	2	15.3	15.0	0.28	15.3	16.1	-0.79
Ben Wallace	79	82	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.21	-7	-1	-6	15.0	16.5	-1.49	15.5	15.0	0.46
Dana Barros	57	58	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.25	-16	8	-24	14.9	15.7	-0.75	14.8	16.3	-1.51

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	56	54	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.23	16	-8	24	15.2	15.7	-0.58	15.3	15.2	0.10
Dan Majerle	47	46	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.40	5	3	2	15.2	15.6	-0.37	14.5	16.0	-1.46
Brian Grant	58	59	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.19	7	1	6	15.7	14.9	0.79	15.8	14.2	1.58
Eddie Jones	79	77	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.16	8	0	8	15.4	15.3	0.11	14.9	16.8	-1.90
A.C. Green	55	53	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.16	7	1	6	15.3	15.5	-0.17	15.2	15.3	-0.20
Anthony Mason	86	82	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.27	3	5	-2	15.5	14.9	0.56	15.1	16.3	-1.18
Eddie House	10	11	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	7	-6	14.3	15.5	-1.23	16.0	15.1	0.87
Bruce Bowen	45	44	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.12	1	7	-6	15.4	15.4	-0.00	16.0	14.6	1.41
Tim Hardaway	39	39	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.03	-8	16	-24	15.7	15.2	0.58	15.2	15.3	-0.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.78,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.4,0.44,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.86,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 86, MEM 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.7,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.75,0.83,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.79,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.63,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.8,0.89,0.82,0.88,0.9,0.99,0.99,1,1	92.0%
UTA 89, GSW 100	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.67,0.66,0.73,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.67,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.75,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.9,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	91.7%
NJN 78, SAS 79	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.43,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.85,0.91,1	91.5%