NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	103		Excitement	5.1 [783]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +15.9%
Washington Wizards	85		Comeback	1.9 [784]		LVP	Juwan Howard (WAS): -15.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.05	-0.00	16	70%	0.19	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.04
Shawn Bradley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	8	78%	0.12	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Hubert Davis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	-0.00	-0.05	4	45%	0.00	2	-0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Gary Trent	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	9	54%	-0.01	1	-0.01	8	100%	0.03
Howard Eisley	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	5	100%	0.08	5	-0.12	1	100%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.02	0.02	21	50%	-0.02	3	-0.07	8	75%	-0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrone Nesby	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Felipe Lopez	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	20	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	18	42%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Gerard King	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	55%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	7	44%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Obinna Ekezie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	9	40%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.05	-0.02	16	44%	-0.03	5	-0.13	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	25.2	15.4	24.6	2.5	29.5	124.8
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +44.5%

DAL +11.7%

WAS -6.0%

WAS -5.4%

DAL +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	WAS	NBA	DAL	WAS	NBA
this game	14.0	15.4	15.5	105.1	86.7	100.9
season	15.2	15.2		104.6	98.6
opponent	15.2	15.3		105.5	101.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	13.6	12.3	14.0	16.1	14.0
WAS	15.2	15.4	16.6	14.5	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	87	87	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.03	20	-2	22	13.7	16.0	-2.30	15.5	15.2	0.28
Michael Finley	87	86	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.02	19	-1	20	14.1	12.8	1.29	15.1	18.1	-3.03
Steve Nash	82	83	0.54	-0.04	0.57	-0.05	20	-2	22	13.7	15.2	-1.54	15.4	15.7	-0.36
Shawn Bradley	70	70	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.08	20	-2	22	14.2	13.4	0.84	15.2	16.1	-0.90
Hubert Davis	69	69	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.11	20	-2	22	13.9	14.0	-0.11	15.1	16.2	-1.15
Christian Laettner	38	37	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	21	-24	13.2	14.4	-1.18	16.5	14.8	1.74
Howard Eisley	46	47	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.07	-4	22	-26	14.4	13.6	0.86	16.2	14.7	1.55
Gary Trent	11	11	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	20	-22	16.0	13.7	2.30	15.2	15.5	-0.28

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerard King	37	36	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-18	18	16.2	15.0	1.22	15.4	13.1	2.22
Obinna Ekezie	44	44	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.05	0	-18	18	16.0	15.0	1.04	14.8	13.3	1.52
Michael Smith	22	22	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	-14	10	15.4	15.4	-0.08	12.3	14.4	-2.12
Tyrone Nesby	51	51	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.07	-9	-9	0	14.3	16.6	-2.32	13.5	14.5	-1.06
Richard Hamilton	65	65	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.07	-15	-3	-12	15.4	15.5	-0.08	15.1	11.8	3.27
Calvin Booth	44	44	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.13	-9	-9	0	15.3	15.5	-0.20	12.1	15.5	-3.35
Juwan Howard	76	76	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	-4	-10	15.4	15.4	0.08	14.4	12.3	2.12
Chris Whitney	79	82	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.08	-14	-4	-10	15.3	15.8	-0.45	13.3	17.2	-3.86
Felipe Lopez	72	70	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	0.21	-25	7	-32	15.7	14.8	0.90	14.0	14.0	-0.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.37,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.27,0.33,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.22,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 111, SAC 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.33,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.31,0.22,0.1,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.05,0.09,0.17,0.07,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.3%
CLE 85, NJN 74	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.31,0.37,0.27,0.3,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.48,0.23,0.18,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0	94.9%
POR 120, PHX 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.27,0.29,0.18,0.08,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%