NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	72		Excitement	5.5 [702]		MVP	Antonio Daniels (SAS): +10.8%
San Antonio Spurs	80		Comeback	1.6 [874]		LVP	Brian Grant (MIA): -12.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie House	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	9	61%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.07	0.01	19	47%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	4	25%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.04	-0.08	-0.02	20	37%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Mason	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	16	38%	-0.12	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Brian Grant	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.05	0.03	11	46%	-0.07	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.06	0.04	12	79%	0.19	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	11	67%	0.09	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Ira Newble	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Dial	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Derek Anderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	12	54%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sean Elliott	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	8	45%	-0.03	1	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	0.01	16	44%	-0.04	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.5	26.2	17.6	22.5	1.8	32.2	126.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +62.9%

MIA -0.1%

MIA -13.5%

MIA -7.7%

SAS +8.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	18.0	17.1	15.5	87.8	97.6	100.9
season	16.3	15.9		98.4	103.4
opponent	15.5	16.1		96.5	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.6	16.3	17.8	22.0	18.0
SAS	16.9	17.2	17.4	17.1	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie House	26	25	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.08	-3	-5	2	19.7	17.2	2.46	17.8	16.8	0.94
A.C. Green	19	19	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.02	-5	-3	-2	17.2	18.3	-1.11	18.4	16.7	1.64
Eddie Jones	64	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-5	2	18.3	16.9	1.37	16.9	17.8	-0.86
Dan Majerle	50	51	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.26	-2	-6	4	18.0	18.0	-0.03	17.7	16.2	1.52
Tim Hardaway	67	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	-4	0	17.0	22.5	-5.45	16.8	18.4	-1.58
Brian Grant	63	63	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.27	-5	-3	-2	18.5	16.5	2.00	17.3	16.6	0.69
Anthony Mason	81	80	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.28	-6	-2	-4	18.1	11.0	7.10	17.0	22.0	-5.01
Bruce Bowen	40	41	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.11	-12	4	-16	17.6	18.4	-0.76	16.2	18.0	-1.88

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Daniels	71	73	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.20	15	-7	22	17.3	16.2	1.07	18.7	12.6	6.13
Derek Anderson	75	74	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.24	12	-4	16	17.1	17.0	0.12	18.2	16.4	1.81
Tim Duncan	76	75	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.33	7	1	6	17.9	6.8	11.09	17.5	23.0	-5.45
David Robinson	50	52	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.03	14	-6	20	15.9	19.0	-3.05	18.9	16.4	2.54
Sean Elliott	56	56	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.08	11	-3	14	16.5	18.5	-1.98	17.9	18.3	-0.38
Danny Ferry	32	31	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.14	3	5	-2	16.9	17.2	-0.28	17.7	18.2	-0.43
Derrick Dial	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	8	-8	4.0	17.6	-13.61	14.0	18.2	-4.16
Ira Newble	1	0	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	8	-8	2.0	17.3	-15.30	0.0	18.0	-18.01
Malik Rose	31	31	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.21	-11	19	-30	18.8	16.1	2.78	17.9	18.1	-0.12
Terry Porter	15	15	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.10	-11	19	-30	19.0	16.7	2.31	14.9	18.7	-3.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.74,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.78,0.74,0.84,0.95,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 79, MIL 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.82,0.74,0.84,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.91,0.83,0.71,0.85,0.86,0.95,1	94.2%
MIL 86, DET 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.62,0.56,0.71,0.82,0.87,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.9,0.9,0.84,0.98,1,1	93.5%
MIN 94, LAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.64,0.6,0.49,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.67,0.66,0.69,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.59,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.75,0.83,0.77,0.87,0.8,0.77,0.86,0.89,0.96,0.98,1	93.4%