NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	109		Excitement	2.5 [1188]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +11.9%
New Jersey Nets	87		Comeback	1.1 [892]		LVP	Kenyon Martin (NJN): -10.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.16	0.01	0.05	16	77%	0.14	2	-0.02	7	86%	0.02
Glenn Robinson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.00	-0.05	20	60%	0.10	5	-0.06	5	80%	-0.00
Mark Pope	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	4	78%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.07	12	50%	0.05	3	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	90%	0.04	2	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Thomas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.11	0.00	-0.09	5	38%	0.01	4	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	11	45%	-0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Eschmeyer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Soumaila Samake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	13	59%	0.03	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Jim McIlvaine	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	10	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	37%	-0.02	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	12	50%	-0.00	2	-0.04	12	67%	-0.01
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	7	39%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	10	39%	-0.03	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.00	0.02	14	50%	-0.04	4	-0.07	6	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.5	29.4	14.7	26.2	2.7	26.5	124.3
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +39.4%

MIL +3.8%

MIL +2.5%

MIL +5.8%

NJN -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	NJN	NBA	MIL	NJN	NBA
this game	14.2	16.1	15.5	114.7	91.6	100.9
season	14.9	15.5		105.9	97.8
opponent	15.1	15.8		103.0	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.0	12.7	14.5	16.9	14.2
NJN	17.0	15.6	15.5	16.6	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	71	72	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.10	18	4	14	14.2	14.2	0.00	16.7	14.4	2.32
Scott Williams	35	35	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.23	20	2	18	14.3	14.1	0.28	17.2	15.5	1.67
Glenn Robinson	77	76	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.07	9	13	-4	14.3	13.8	0.48	15.8	17.5	-1.72
Mark Pope	43	41	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.34	23	-1	24	12.6	15.4	-2.81	16.5	15.9	0.60
Sam Cassell	67	68	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.11	15	7	8	13.9	14.9	-1.08	16.2	16.0	0.21
Tim Thomas	38	40	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.07	7	15	-8	14.7	13.8	0.82	16.8	15.7	1.17
Lindsey Hunter	45	44	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.09	11	11	0	14.8	13.6	1.28	15.5	16.7	-1.21
Jason Caffey	44	43	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.00	5	17	-12	13.5	14.8	-1.29	15.5	16.7	-1.12
Ervin Johnson	39	40	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.12	-2	24	-26	14.7	13.8	0.89	16.0	16.3	-0.30
Rafer Alston	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	20	-18	16.4	14.0	2.41	14.0	16.3	-2.34
Joel Przybilla	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	20	-18	16.4	14.0	2.41	14.0	16.3	-2.34

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Soumaila Samake	16	14	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.13	4	-26	30	16.7	16.0	0.72	16.4	13.8	2.65
Kevin Ollie	21	22	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.11	-8	-14	6	15.4	16.4	-0.98	15.1	13.9	1.26
Johnny Newman	43	42	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	-17	12	15.9	16.4	-0.52	16.1	12.6	3.50
Evan Eschmeyer	19	21	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.13	-11	-11	0	16.4	16.1	0.34	15.1	13.9	1.25
Jim McIlvaine	47	48	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.01	-7	-15	8	16.1	16.2	-0.04	12.8	15.5	-2.70
Stephen Jackson	49	47	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.10	-12	-10	-2	16.1	16.2	-0.18	15.5	12.8	2.70
Lucious Harris	50	52	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.15	-17	-5	-12	16.5	15.8	0.74	12.5	16.1	-3.60
Sherman Douglas	74	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	-8	-6	16.4	15.4	0.98	13.9	15.1	-1.26
Kenyon Martin	74	75	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.21	-20	-2	-18	15.8	17.3	-1.52	14.0	14.7	-0.74
Aaron Williams	82	81	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.13	-20	-2	-18	16.3	15.4	0.88	13.7	16.9	-3.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.26,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 114, SAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.5%
ORL 112, CHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.19,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.5%
GSW 120, WAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.24,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%