NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	121		Excitement	9.1 [116]		MVP	Kyle Kuzma (WAS): +57.0%
Washington Wizards	124		Comeback	8.6 [219]		LVP	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (WAS): -29.3%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Rozier	0.39	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.34,0.44,0.39	0.13	0.33	0.07	17	68%	0.46	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.04
Gordon Hayward	0.20	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.13	0.07	-0.01	22	57%	0.20	0	0.00	3	100%	0.04
Mason Plumlee	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.01	0.01	4	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Miles Bridges	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03	0.08	-0.05	-0.00	19	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Cody Martin	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Jalen McDaniels	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	7	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	4	20%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.05
LaMelo Ball	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.14	-0.04	-0.10	0.00	21	42%	-0.09	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.27,0.57,0.57	0.57	0.11	0.48	0.02	26	64%	0.73	5	-0.16	4	100%	0.01
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.12	0.09	0.02	8	78%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Corey Kispert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.03	-0.01	5	86%	0.15	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Daniel Gafford	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.04	0.03	7	83%	0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Bradley Beal	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.05,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,-0.06,0.1	0.10	0.12	-0.01	0.01	22	64%	0.31	4	-0.21	11	91%	0.08
Alize Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deni Avdija	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.02	0.00	7	39%	0.02	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.18	-0.14	-0.02	11	21%	-0.18	3	-0.12	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	24.3	14.7	25.2	2.5	40.9	133.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +48.4%

WAS +19.2%

WAS +4.3%

CHA -26.0%

WAS +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	WAS	NBA	CHA	WAS	NBA
this game	12.6	14.4	14.5	113.1	117.0	110.8
season	14.0	14.9		112.9	109.8
opponent	14.4	14.5		113.1	112.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	13.1	11.0	13.1	13.3	12.6
WAS	13.1	17.4	15.2	12.4	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Rozier	70	70	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.20	6	-9	15	12.9	12.1	0.89	14.0	15.3	-1.35
Miles Bridges	94	92	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.28	8	-11	19	12.4	14.2	-1.82	14.5	14.0	0.48
Jalen McDaniels	44	43	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.01	-2	-1	-1	12.2	12.9	-0.73	16.1	13.3	2.86
Mason Plumlee	62	61	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.23	4	-7	11	12.7	12.5	0.21	13.4	15.8	-2.33
LaMelo Ball	73	71	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-2	1	12.7	12.4	0.33	13.6	16.1	-2.54
Gordon Hayward	86	85	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.44	3	-6	9	12.8	12.1	0.61	14.5	14.0	0.58
Ish Smith	28	29	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.18	-6	3	-9	11.7	13.0	-1.30	16.4	13.6	2.80
Kelly Oubre Jr.	27	27	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.11	-17	14	-31	13.0	12.5	0.49	13.9	14.6	-0.76
Cody Martin	51	52	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.40	-10	7	-17	12.9	12.4	0.43	14.8	14.1	0.73

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bradley Beal	95	98	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.48	4	-1	5	14.2	16.5	-2.38	12.5	13.7	-1.13
Kyle Kuzma	91	91	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.36	5	-2	7	14.0	17.1	-3.17	13.0	10.7	2.22
Deni Avdija	86	87	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.46	1	2	-1	14.3	14.8	-0.47	13.0	11.2	1.77
Davis Bertans	46	46	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.11	12	-9	21	14.9	14.0	0.92	11.9	13.2	-1.23
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	69	71	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.29	-3	6	-9	14.5	14.3	0.18	12.5	12.9	-0.47
Daniel Gafford	81	81	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.23	-2	5	-7	13.9	16.1	-2.18	12.7	12.5	0.23
Corey Kispert	51	50	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.08	-1	4	-5	15.3	13.6	1.77	12.4	12.9	-0.48
Alize Johnson	11	11	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	4	-5	17.9	14.0	3.90	12.8	12.6	0.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.7,0.63,0.59,0.54,0.47,0.36,0.25,0.27,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.1,0.18,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.46,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.59,0.34,0.28,0.38,0.46,0.57,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 87, WAS 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.73,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.47,0.64,0.35,0.47,0.19,0.37,0.55,0.58,1	88.6%
TOR 109, BKN 114	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.36,0.53,0.54,0.39,0.55,0.67,0.42,1	88.5%
GSW 95, ORL 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.2,0.21,0.2,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.4,0.5,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.33,0.58,1	87.0%