NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	93		Excitement	8.4 [218]		MVP	Naz Reid (MIN): +12.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves	91		Comeback	4.7 [248]		LVP	Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): -26.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bones Hyland	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.06	-0.02	7	57%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.06	0.01	14	53%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Austin Rivers	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	150%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Facundo Campazzo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.04	-0.00	2	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.11,-0.08,-0.14,-0.17,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.04	-0.07	0.10	-0.01	23	52%	0.22	7	-0.18	4	75%	0.03
JaMychal Green	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.10	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Dozier	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	0.01	-0.03	10	42%	0.04	4	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.03	-0.06	0.02	10	50%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Michael Porter Jr.	-0.26	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.24,-0.24,-0.26	-0.13	-0.12	0.00	14	23%	-0.23	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Naz Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.03	-0.02	8	75%	0.17	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	70%	0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.11,0.03	0.03	0.10	-0.07	-0.00	14	64%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
D'Angelo Russell	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	15	47%	0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jordan McLaughlin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarred Vanderbilt	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	5	55%	0.00	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Josh Okogie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Taurean Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jaden McDaniels	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	6	17%	-0.10	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-0.04	-0.00	19	35%	-0.08	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.05	-0.12	0.02	11	54%	-0.06	5	-0.14	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	26.6	0.7	26.5	2.4	25.5	109.4
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +21.0%

DEN +7.9%

DEN +12.4%

DEN +10.7%

MIN -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	15.9	13.9	14.5	95.9	94.8	110.8
season	14.8	13.9		113.4	112.6
opponent	14.4	14.4		110.6	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.8	15.3	16.3	17.7	15.9
MIN	12.9	12.9	15.0	15.0	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gordon	63	64	1.21	-0.71	1.91	0.44	26	-24	50	15.1	17.4	-2.27	14.2	13.2	0.97
Nikola Jokic	73	73	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.43	17	-15	32	15.9	16.0	-0.14	13.9	13.7	0.21
Will Barton	64	63	0.88	-0.38	1.25	0.64	8	-6	14	15.2	17.3	-2.02	13.7	14.4	-0.71
Monte Morris	60	61	0.87	-0.37	1.23	0.37	17	-15	32	16.1	15.6	0.56	13.7	14.3	-0.57
Michael Porter Jr.	69	67	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.41	10	-8	18	16.7	14.2	2.47	13.9	14.0	-0.10
Bones Hyland	34	35	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.13	10	-8	18	15.3	16.3	-1.04	15.4	13.0	2.41
Jeff Green	13	12	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	0.13	-15	17	-32	14.9	16.1	-1.17	11.9	14.2	-2.26
P.J. Dozier	31	30	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	0.06	-15	17	-32	14.5	16.6	-2.09	13.8	13.9	-0.14
Austin Rivers	21	20	-0.40	0.90	-1.29	-0.13	-9	11	-20	19.0	15.1	3.85	14.0	13.9	0.19
JaMychal Green	24	23	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	0.01	-15	17	-32	16.0	15.9	0.14	13.7	13.9	-0.21
Facundo Campazzo	33	32	-0.72	1.22	-1.95	-0.02	-24	26	-50	17.4	15.2	2.25	13.2	14.2	-0.97

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Okogie	38	39	0.51	-1.01	1.52	-0.02	18	-20	38	14.1	13.8	0.35	16.5	15.6	0.88
Naz Reid	35	35	0.41	-0.91	1.31	-0.03	15	-17	32	13.6	14.1	-0.47	17.7	14.9	2.78
Patrick Beverley	46	45	0.33	-0.83	1.16	0.04	10	-12	22	14.3	13.6	0.70	15.7	16.1	-0.38
Jordan McLaughlin	9	9	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.07	-5	3	-8	11.7	14.1	-2.46	14.3	16.1	-1.77
Taurean Prince	19	18	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	1	-4	15.2	13.6	1.57	14.4	16.3	-1.83
Jarred Vanderbilt	34	34	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.04	-9	7	-16	14.0	13.8	0.16	14.5	16.7	-2.17
D'Angelo Russell	61	64	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.57	10	-12	22	13.5	14.5	-1.02	16.5	14.9	1.61
Malik Beasley	53	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.45	2	-4	6	14.4	13.3	1.16	15.5	16.6	-1.12
Jaden McDaniels	48	48	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.43	-11	9	-20	13.1	14.6	-1.50	17.3	14.6	2.72
Anthony Edwards	68	69	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.39	-14	12	-26	13.8	14.2	-0.45	15.9	16.1	-0.24
Karl-Anthony Towns	69	69	-1.14	0.64	-1.78	-0.46	-23	21	-44	14.2	13.2	0.94	15.2	17.9	-2.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.8,0.75,0.77,0.73,0.58,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.4,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.33,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 94, PHI 89	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.82,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.83,0.66,0.73,0.69,0.37,0.24,0.16,0	91.7%
SAS 100, TOR 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.73,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.68,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.62,0.46,0.33,0.08,0	91.5%
CLE 90, NYK 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.64,0.69,0.61,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.6,0.7,0.7,0.82,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.6,0.61,0.36,0.45,0.27,0	90.9%