NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	111		Excitement	4.9 [844]		MVP	Montrezl Harrell (WAS): +19.7%
Washington Wizards	122		Comeback	1.4 [442]		LVP	Trae Young (ATL): -9.3%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Collins	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.20	0.01	0.07	16	87%	0.20	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	11	61%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Clint Capela	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.01	7	69%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Danilo Gallinari	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	67%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Delon Wright	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cam Reddish	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.03	14	62%	0.09	4	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Lou Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	56%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
De'Andre Hunter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	9	56%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Gorgui Dieng	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Kevin Huerter	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trae Young	-0.09	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	17	41%	-0.04	3	-0.05	3	67%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Montrezl Harrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.16	0.05	0.02	16	68%	0.20	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.12	0.12	0.16	0.00	0.04	10	91%	0.15	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	17	52%	0.08	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.03	26	48%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	7	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Aaron Holiday	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	6	58%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raul Neto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Kispert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deni Avdija	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	-0.01	-0.06	8	28%	-0.02	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.5	28.0	15.7	27.3	1.8	37.0	135.9
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +8.5%

WAS +5.7%

WAS +18.1%

WAS +13.4%

WAS +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	WAS	NBA	ATL	WAS	NBA
this game	12.6	15.9	14.5	109.9	120.8	110.8
season	14.6	14.9		114.3	109.8
opponent	14.4	14.5		113.1	113.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.6	12.3	12.9	11.5	12.6
WAS	14.1	16.5	14.3	19.3	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lou Williams	15	15	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.13	4	-15	19	13.6	12.4	1.18	17.3	15.7	1.66
Gorgui Dieng	14	12	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.01	-2	-9	7	12.9	12.6	0.31	18.2	15.6	2.55
Kevin Huerter	32	32	-0.10	-0.41	0.31	-0.10	0	-11	11	13.7	12.1	1.60	14.6	16.6	-1.99
Danilo Gallinari	39	38	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.10	-2	-9	7	13.7	11.9	1.87	15.2	16.4	-1.22
Delon Wright	11	12	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.05	-7	-4	-3	14.7	12.3	2.39	14.2	16.1	-1.90
Cam Reddish	58	57	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-7	3	12.1	13.3	-1.27	15.9	16.0	-0.14
De'Andre Hunter	63	64	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-5	-1	12.2	13.2	-0.95	16.4	15.1	1.37
Clint Capela	48	50	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	-10	-1	-9	12.9	12.3	0.61	15.7	16.1	-0.44
Trae Young	75	74	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.09	-8	-3	-5	12.1	14.1	-2.00	15.9	16.0	-0.06
Bogdan Bogdanovic	69	69	-0.41	-0.10	-0.31	-0.08	-11	0	-11	12.1	13.7	-1.60	16.6	14.6	1.99
John Collins	81	82	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.16	-9	-2	-7	12.5	13.1	-0.63	15.7	16.7	-1.01

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Montrezl Harrell	70	70	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.08	16	-5	21	16.3	15.1	1.19	13.0	11.7	1.23
Bradley Beal	78	77	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.22	7	4	3	16.5	13.9	2.66	12.6	12.5	0.12
Kyle Kuzma	84	84	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.13	9	2	7	16.0	15.5	0.47	12.4	13.5	-1.12
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	64	64	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.05	10	1	9	15.8	16.1	-0.34	12.4	12.9	-0.43
Aaron Holiday	50	50	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.06	9	2	7	16.5	15.3	1.23	13.0	12.2	0.80
Raul Neto	52	52	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	9	-7	15.1	16.8	-1.74	12.2	13.1	-0.91
Corey Kispert	19	19	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.00	5	6	-1	16.8	15.7	1.07	12.6	12.6	0.05
Deni Avdija	47	49	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	9	-7	15.6	16.2	-0.61	12.0	13.1	-1.07
Davis Bertans	41	40	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.16	-5	16	-21	14.5	16.9	-2.45	13.2	12.2	1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.96,0.92,0.91,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.91,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.86,0.99,1,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 101, UTA 112	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.89,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.9,0.98,1,1,1	95.2%
SEA 103, IND 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.2%
SAC 88, MIA 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.6,0.51,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	95.2%