NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	112		Excitement	6.2 [503]		MVP	Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): +22.9%
Denver Nuggets	114		Comeback	1.0 [931]		LVP	Austin Rivers (DEN): -12.9%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaxson Hayes	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.03	0.01	3	100%	0.12	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Naji Marshall	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	5	58%	0.07	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Willy Hernangomez	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	58%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Eric Bledsoe	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	12	63%	0.06	3	-0.06	3	33%	-0.02
Steven Adams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wenyen Gabriel	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Ingram	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04	0.02	-0.03	0.02	22	60%	0.13	6	-0.17	1	100%	0.00
Lonzo Ball	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	0.03	14	57%	0.05	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Kira Lewis Jr.	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	4	37%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zion Williamson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.11	-0.01	-0.11	-0.01	17	51%	-0.03	3	-0.09	7	71%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23	0.23	0.11	0.09	-0.03	21	64%	0.26	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Facundo Campazzo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.06	-0.01	9	86%	0.21	4	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.05	-0.03	20	67%	0.24	6	-0.20	8	75%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	47%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Shaquille Harrison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
PJ Dozier	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	7	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.01	7	62%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	5	0%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	2.3	22.5	15.5	26.2	1.8	34.2	130.8
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +38.1%

NOP -2.2%

NOP -4.4%

DEN +13.9%

DEN +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	DEN	NBA	NOP	DEN	NBA
this game	12.2	14.0	14.4	100.9	104.6	111.3
season	14.0	15.0		112.4	116.0
opponent	14.4	14.4		112.3	112.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	13.0	10.9	14.8	10.7	12.2
DEN	13.7	14.9	15.2	12.5	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wenyen Gabriel	38	36	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.13	1	-3	4	12.8	11.9	0.98	15.9	13.1	2.78
Steven Adams	29	27	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	3	-8	13.0	11.9	1.09	14.6	13.8	0.79
James Johnson	19	18	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	2	-6	10.3	12.6	-2.27	14.8	13.8	1.00
Kira Lewis Jr.	40	39	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	1	-4	11.7	12.5	-0.82	14.1	14.0	0.12
Jaxson Hayes	34	33	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.01	-5	3	-8	11.6	12.5	-0.84	13.9	14.0	-0.13
Naji Marshall	44	43	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.19	-2	0	-2	11.2	12.9	-1.68	14.3	13.8	0.42
Zion Williamson	74	77	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.43	6	-8	14	11.3	13.9	-2.62	13.5	15.1	-1.55
Eric Bledsoe	63	63	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.33	2	-4	6	11.9	12.6	-0.64	13.9	14.1	-0.19
Willy Hernangomez	53	54	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.35	2	-4	6	12.8	11.6	1.17	13.5	14.5	-0.95
Lonzo Ball	83	81	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.41	1	-3	4	12.8	10.4	2.37	13.8	14.7	-0.96
Brandon Ingram	78	74	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.36	-3	1	-4	13.1	10.0	3.17	13.7	14.7	-0.97

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Porter Jr.	91	92	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.35	7	-5	12	13.7	15.4	-1.73	12.7	10.0	2.65
Nikola Jokic	81	83	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.30	7	-5	12	13.4	15.7	-2.31	12.8	10.4	2.41
Facundo Campazzo	80	82	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.41	3	-1	4	13.9	14.2	-0.28	12.8	10.4	2.46
Paul Millsap	42	42	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.00	14	-12	26	13.8	14.1	-0.27	12.9	11.8	1.17
PJ Dozier	72	74	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.30	-2	4	-6	13.9	14.2	-0.29	11.8	13.0	-1.20
Austin Rivers	62	63	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.25	-1	3	-4	14.6	13.3	1.31	11.3	13.4	-2.18
Shaquille Harrison	23	24	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	1	0	13.6	14.1	-0.55	11.3	12.4	-1.10
Aaron Gordon	66	67	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.44	-14	16	-30	14.3	13.5	0.81	12.0	12.5	-0.58
JaVale McGee	28	28	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.14	-5	7	-12	15.7	13.4	2.31	10.4	12.8	-2.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.61,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.81,0.76,0.77,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.75,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.95,0.98,0.93,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 99, VAN 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.56,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.83,0.89,0.85,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.96,1	93.9%
GSW 71, NYK 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.76,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.8,0.78,0.69,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.86,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%
LAL 85, NYK 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.67,0.72,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.77,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.72,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.74,0.81,0.79,0.72,0.88,0.87,0.94,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1	93.8%