NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	99		Excitement	9.3 [109]		MVP	RJ Barrett (NYK): +32.8%
Boston Celtics	101		Comeback	4.2 [320]		LVP	Alec Burks (NYK): -9.1%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
RJ Barrett	0.33	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.07,0.33	0.22	0.16	0.05	14	91%	0.57	3	-0.24	4	75%	0.01
Derrick Rose	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.04	-0.00	10	50%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Julius Randle	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03	-0.04	0.04	-0.04	23	46%	0.12	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Immanuel Quickley	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Obi Toppin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nerlens Noel	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	58%	0.02	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Taj Gibson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	1	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Elfrid Payton	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	8	50%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Bullock	-0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	8	37%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	9	40%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.31	0.31	0.05	0.28	0.02	11	61%	0.42	2	-0.11	6	100%	0.04
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.10	0.09	-0.04	26	54%	0.34	2	-0.10	7	43%	-0.06
Romeo Langford	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.01	5	60%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Semi Ojeleye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	-0.01	-0.02	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Williams III	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	7	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	47%	0.00	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.15,-0.18,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	21	57%	0.21	8	-0.28	2	100%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Grant Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.5	2.3	26.4	14.8	28.8	2.0	36.6	140.3
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +41.4%

NYK -2.0%

BOS +27.0%

NYK -18.0%

BOS +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	BOS	NBA	NYK	BOS	NBA
this game	14.4	15.1	14.4	103.1	102.0	111.3
season	15.2	14.5		109.2	112.8
opponent	14.5	14.6		111.9	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	14.6	14.2	13.0	15.8	14.4
BOS	15.4	16.4	15.8	13.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	39	39	0.44	-0.94	1.39	0.00	15	-17	32	14.1	14.6	-0.49	16.2	14.4	1.77
Obi Toppin	19	20	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.03	7	-9	16	14.4	14.4	0.03	19.5	14.0	5.54
Immanuel Quickley	23	25	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.01	3	-5	8	14.7	14.3	0.34	18.3	14.1	4.21
Derrick Rose	50	51	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.26	6	-8	14	15.4	13.3	2.01	16.0	14.2	1.71
Alec Burks	46	48	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.26	2	-4	6	15.0	13.9	1.12	14.9	15.3	-0.42
Elfrid Payton	46	48	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.18	-8	6	-14	13.3	15.4	-2.01	14.2	16.0	-1.71
Reggie Bullock	54	56	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.37	-3	1	-4	13.4	15.7	-2.30	14.4	16.1	-1.70
Julius Randle	76	78	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.46	-5	3	-8	14.2	15.0	-0.76	14.1	19.0	-4.85
RJ Barrett	74	75	-0.72	0.23	-0.95	-0.46	-9	7	-16	14.5	14.1	0.34	14.0	18.7	-4.78
Nerlens Noel	53	55	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.26	-18	16	-34	15.1	13.5	1.64	15.3	14.9	0.40

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tristan Thompson	42	44	0.98	-0.48	1.47	0.28	24	-22	46	14.6	15.5	-0.93	15.4	13.5	1.87
Grant Williams	54	54	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.43	9	-7	16	13.3	17.4	-4.12	13.9	15.0	-1.07
Jayson Tatum	87	83	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.46	6	-4	10	15.0	15.8	-0.80	14.3	15.2	-0.88
Jaylen Brown	76	75	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.42	7	-5	12	14.0	18.8	-4.81	14.4	14.5	-0.10
Marcus Smart	76	76	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.42	7	-5	12	14.3	17.8	-3.51	14.2	14.9	-0.70
Semi Ojeleye	23	23	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.06	3	-1	4	18.1	14.2	3.91	16.5	13.7	2.80
Romeo Langford	54	47	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.28	-16	18	-34	16.3	13.7	2.60	13.2	15.5	-2.32
Payton Pritchard	31	30	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.00	-9	11	-20	17.5	14.1	3.38	15.3	14.0	1.32
Robert Williams III	52	48	-0.64	1.14	-1.78	-0.02	-21	23	-44	16.6	13.6	3.00	14.0	14.7	-0.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.42,0.3,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.23,0.26,0.19,0.39,0.69,0.66,0.86,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 98, HOU 101	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.38,0.33,0.48,0.33,0.18,0.24,0.53,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.95,1	92.4%
NJN 102, ORL 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.5,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.28,0.3,0.4,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.29,0.38,0.32,0.13,0.24,0.53,0.69,0.72,0.87,0.83,1	91.5%
MIA 83, DAL 86	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.5,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.48,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.15,0.2,0.32,0.21,0.35,0.53,0.69,0.63,0.84,0.84,1	91.4%