NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	113		Excitement	8.0 [280]		MVP	Rudy Gay (SAS): +27.4%
San Antonio Spurs	109		Comeback	3.6 [158]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (SAS): -16.0%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jae Crowder	0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.17,0.17	0.01	0.14	-0.02	5	67%	0.19	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.06
Brandon Clarke	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.03	0.00	7	100%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.05	0.01	12	75%	0.17	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Hill	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	2	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson Jr.	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.06	0.13	-0.05	0.02	17	71%	0.18	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Marko Guduric	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ja Morant	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	12	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	67%	0.01
Dillon Brooks	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	0.04	-0.08	0.00	17	52%	-0.03	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.01
Kyle Anderson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	2	37%	-0.01	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Tyus Jones	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	10	36%	-0.09	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.15	0.14	0.01	9	86%	0.30	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.06	-0.00	15	56%	0.16	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.04
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	70%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryn Forbes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	12	58%	0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	47%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	56%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.06,0.06,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.06	-0.02	13	52%	0.10	1	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	44%	0.02	4	-0.08	3	67%	-0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.11	-0.03	15	39%	-0.09	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	28.4	14.6	24.5	1.6	39.4	134.4
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +3.5%

SAS -5.1%

MEM +29.6%

MEM +18.1%

MEM +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	SAS	NBA	MEM	SAS	NBA
this game	14.2	14.1	14.2	111.9	106.9	109.6
season	13.8	14.1		108.2	110.8
opponent	14.2	13.9		112.0	109.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	12.4	14.4	14.9	15.5	14.2
SAS	13.8	12.3	17.9	13.3	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyus Jones	50	50	0.97	-0.47	1.43	0.41	19	-15	34	13.4	15.0	-1.62	13.6	14.7	-1.13
Jonas Valanciunas	55	54	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.58	7	-3	10	14.2	14.3	-0.12	15.9	12.1	3.76
Jae Crowder	61	62	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.40	13	-9	22	14.7	13.5	1.22	15.0	12.8	2.12
Jaren Jackson Jr.	76	79	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.36	12	-8	20	14.4	13.8	0.63	14.4	13.3	1.08
Dillon Brooks	73	74	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.48	-6	10	-16	15.0	12.2	2.85	14.6	13.0	1.57
Marko Guduric	27	27	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.06	7	-3	10	12.5	14.9	-2.40	13.4	14.4	-1.04
Brandon Clarke	41	40	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.07	7	-3	10	13.0	15.1	-2.12	13.0	14.9	-1.87
Kyle Anderson	43	44	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.03	-6	10	-16	12.7	15.4	-2.72	12.0	15.7	-3.68
Ja Morant	49	49	-0.50	1.00	-1.49	-0.06	-15	19	-34	15.6	12.9	2.71	15.3	13.0	2.29
Solomon Hill	30	31	-0.63	1.13	-1.75	-0.10	-18	22	-40	15.7	13.6	2.03	11.9	15.1	-3.21

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marco Belinelli	36	37	0.21	-0.71	0.91	0.03	6	-10	16	13.2	14.7	-1.50	13.6	14.6	-1.06
Jakob Poeltl	34	35	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-3	2	13.4	14.5	-1.18	13.2	14.8	-1.59
Patty Mills	45	46	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-2	0	13.0	15.1	-2.11	13.6	14.8	-1.23
Trey Lyles	35	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.14	0	-4	4	16.6	12.9	3.71	14.8	13.9	0.88
Dejounte Murray	41	41	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.12	-2	-2	0	15.1	13.5	1.65	13.8	14.5	-0.77
Derrick White	61	60	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.27	-2	-2	0	13.5	15.1	-1.65	14.5	13.8	0.77
Bryn Forbes	57	55	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-2	0	15.1	13.0	2.11	14.8	13.6	1.23
Rudy Gay	62	62	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.28	-4	0	-4	13.0	16.0	-3.02	13.8	14.9	-1.16
LaMarcus Aldridge	68	66	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.41	-3	-1	-2	14.5	13.4	1.18	14.8	13.2	1.59
DeMar DeRozan	71	69	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.38	-10	6	-16	14.5	13.4	1.08	14.7	13.2	1.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.12,0.16,0.23,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.15,0.3,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.46,0.73,0.62,0.46,0.43,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 133, MIL 128	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.37,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.24,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.38,0.4,0.26,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.61,0.39,0.54,0.43,0.09,0	91.4%
CHA 96, IND 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.46,0.43,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.24,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.2,0.19,0.31,0.4,0.47,0.56,0.46,0.32,0.16,0	91.1%
LAL 108, CHI 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.31,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.21,0.26,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.31,0.17,0.22,0.18,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.45,0.62,0.68,0.54,0.32,0.04,0	90.4%