NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	120		Excitement	9.8 [80]		MVP	Eric Gordon (HOU): +39.6%
Houston Rockets	123		Comeback	12.0 [200]		LVP	Al Horford (BOS): -27.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Morris	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.15,0.22,0.28,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.16	0.15	0.00	13	78%	0.38	1	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Greg Monroe	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.13	0.10	0.00	9	75%	0.23	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Terry Rozier	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.03	0.00	10	85%	0.24	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.01	-0.00	7	75%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jaylen Brown	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	8	56%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Smart	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	12	41%	-0.02	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Kyrie Irving	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.21,-0.17	-0.03	-0.09	0.04	17	46%	0.04	3	-0.21	5	80%	0.04
Al Horford	-0.28	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,-0.07,-0.28	-0.09	-0.20	-0.01	12	38%	-0.11	3	-0.17	2	100%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.34,0.39,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4	0.40	0.24	0.18	0.02	13	85%	0.45	1	-0.06	8	75%	-0.02
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.38,0.3	0.30	0.10	0.21	0.01	18	57%	0.30	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.10	0.01	11	58%	0.16	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.06
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	7	57%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	6	75%	0.12	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	57%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	5	58%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.03
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.09,-0.01,-0.1,-0.16	-0.17	-0.02	-0.12	0.02	18	53%	-0.05	4	-0.11	13	85%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	3.5	28.8	14.8	28.3	3.5	40.9	145.4
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +23.0%

BOS -1.2%

HOU +0.4%

HOU +25.4%

HOU +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	HOU	NBA	BOS	HOU	NBA
this game	14.9	14.2	14.7	120.0	125.5	107.5
season	15.1	14.6		106.4	112.8
opponent	14.8	14.7		105.6	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.8	15.9	16.2	13.8	14.9
HOU	15.5	14.6	13.8	12.9	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Monroe	42	40	0.66	-1.16	1.81	0.01	22	-25	47	14.7	15.1	-0.31	14.3	14.1	0.19
Jayson Tatum	59	57	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.06	0	-3	3	14.8	15.1	-0.38	14.8	13.3	1.45
Jaylen Brown	46	47	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.14	-10	7	-17	15.9	14.1	1.76	14.6	13.8	0.83
Aron Baynes	24	24	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.06	-9	6	-15	16.0	14.6	1.48	15.6	13.7	1.94
Terry Rozier	61	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.52	9	-12	21	14.5	15.6	-1.10	13.5	15.1	-1.60
Marcus Smart	63	60	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.50	8	-11	19	14.7	15.4	-0.73	13.5	15.2	-1.62
Marcus Morris	70	69	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.44	3	-6	9	14.7	15.4	-0.73	13.8	15.0	-1.14
Kyrie Irving	72	72	-0.90	0.40	-1.31	-0.41	-17	14	-31	14.9	15.1	-0.21	14.2	13.9	0.33
Al Horford	63	62	-1.08	0.58	-1.67	-0.47	-21	18	-39	15.1	14.7	0.39	14.1	14.2	-0.09

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	77	78	0.96	-0.46	1.43	0.38	20	-17	37	14.0	14.6	-0.58	15.4	13.1	2.34
Clint Capela	68	68	0.95	-0.45	1.40	0.36	20	-17	37	14.2	14.1	0.14	15.5	13.6	1.90
Trevor Ariza	70	71	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.47	13	-10	23	13.8	15.2	-1.42	14.8	15.1	-0.31
PJ Tucker	60	62	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.38	9	-6	15	14.5	13.6	0.95	14.8	15.2	-0.38
Chris Paul	73	76	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.41	-6	9	-15	14.6	12.8	1.83	14.4	16.5	-2.13
Luc Mbah a Moute	31	31	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.07	-7	10	-17	13.9	14.3	-0.43	14.5	15.1	-0.68
Eric Gordon	55	57	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.00	-9	12	-21	13.7	14.8	-1.16	15.1	14.6	0.51
Joe Johnson	27	27	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.01	-10	13	-23	14.3	14.1	0.23	14.6	15.1	-0.50
Nene	29	30	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	0.01	-15	18	-33	14.6	14.0	0.55	14.4	15.1	-0.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.46,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.35,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.14,0.1,0.23,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 72, CLE 74	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.48,0.39,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.41,0.4,0.22,0.19,0.29,0.55,0.92,1	90.1%
WAS 103, DET 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.43,0.47,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.11,0.58,1	89.8%
UTA 82, CHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.33,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.46,0.45,0.72,1	89.7%