NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	120		Excitement	5.5 [737]		MVP	Jerryd Bayless (TOR): +42.8%
Detroit Pistons	116		Comeback	103.2 [11]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): -13.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerryd Bayless	0.43	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.26,0.43	0.20	0.34	0.11	12	86%	0.50	4	-0.07	12	83%	-0.02
Andrea Bargnani	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.10	0.13	0.01	13	79%	0.31	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Leandro Barbosa	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.14	0.04	0.10	13	76%	0.12	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Amir Johnson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.04	0.01	4	67%	0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
DeMar DeRozan	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.00	12	59%	0.08	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Joey Dorsey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sonny Weems	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.05	-0.05	0.04	6	79%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Ed Davis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	37%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Julian Wright	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	0.03	3	50%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.07	0.06	13	77%	0.16	4	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.01	6	62%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.09	-0.02	0.04	14	61%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.03	7	50%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	100%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	0.02	13	42%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	0.03	-0.08	0.01	17	55%	-0.03	3	-0.03	8	87%	-0.05
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.07,-0.14	-0.14	0.01	-0.13	0.01	11	48%	-0.07	1	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.5	1.0	32.8	16.8	26.2	2.4	39.3	148.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +76.2%

TOR +7.8%

DET -20.5%

DET -13.0%

DET -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DET	NBA	TOR	DET	NBA
this game	13.5	16.4	15.5	126.3	119.6	105.7
season	15.1	16.7		104.7	106.4
opponent	15.2	15.5		110.1	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	12.5	14.0	15.6	12.0	13.5
DET	17.3	14.8	15.7	18.0	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	53	54	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.40	14	-10	24	13.2	14.0	-0.87	18.4	14.0	4.45
Leandro Barbosa	54	57	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.26	14	-10	24	12.2	15.2	-3.00	16.3	16.6	-0.37
Andrea Bargnani	75	74	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.62	-1	5	-6	13.8	12.4	1.44	16.9	14.8	2.16
Jerryd Bayless	65	65	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.69	-4	8	-12	14.5	11.4	3.07	16.0	17.3	-1.27
Linas Kleiza	41	44	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.21	10	-6	16	11.9	14.8	-2.92	16.7	16.2	0.41
Julian Wright	36	38	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.34	17	-13	30	12.2	14.3	-2.12	16.9	16.2	0.72
Ed Davis	26	27	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.14	3	1	2	14.6	13.1	1.48	13.3	17.6	-4.30
Joey Dorsey	24	27	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.21	2	2	0	13.2	13.6	-0.38	14.8	17.1	-2.29
Sonny Weems	41	40	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.18	-15	19	-34	13.2	13.8	-0.60	15.8	16.8	-0.99
DeMar DeRozan	60	59	-0.34	0.84	-1.17	0.25	-20	24	-44	15.4	10.3	5.10	16.7	16.0	0.71

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	20	20	0.26	-0.76	1.02	-0.03	10	-14	24	14.2	17.0	-2.81	13.5	13.5	-0.05
Ben Gordon	38	38	0.23	-0.73	0.95	0.02	7	-11	18	15.1	17.3	-2.18	12.2	14.5	-2.30
Greg Monroe	54	51	0.22	-0.72	0.93	0.07	5	-9	14	14.6	18.7	-4.15	13.3	13.9	-0.61
Will Bynum	22	21	0.14	-0.64	0.77	0.11	1	-5	6	15.0	16.9	-1.85	12.3	13.9	-1.61
Jason Maxiell	15	16	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.09	-5	1	-6	21.0	15.6	5.40	14.1	13.4	0.71
Austin Daye	11	10	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.06	-5	1	-6	17.0	16.4	0.64	8.9	14.1	-5.18
Charlie Villanueva	43	44	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.43	-4	0	-4	17.0	16.0	1.02	13.9	13.2	0.69
Ben Wallace	76	74	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.44	-6	2	-8	16.9	14.8	2.13	13.9	12.1	1.79
Tayshaun Prince	73	72	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.50	-5	1	-6	16.7	15.6	1.07	13.7	13.1	0.54
Rodney Stuckey	69	68	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.48	-6	2	-8	17.0	14.9	2.11	14.3	11.6	2.72
Richard Hamilton	64	61	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.37	-12	8	-20	16.9	15.5	1.39	13.9	12.9	1.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.78,0.77,0.81,0.82,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.8,0.83,0.9,0.89,0.57,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 108, NOH 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.62,0.54,0.5,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.92,0.72,0.77,0.42,0	92.6%
DAL 107, MIN 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.85,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.57,0.41,0	92.1%
CLE 87, LAC 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.8,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.91,0.89,0.79,0.86,0.15,0	91.6%