| Win Probability if: | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Game | Time | Score | Shot | Miss | Make | Swing | Result | Play |
| 2025-10-21 | HOU 124 OKC 125 | OT2 0:00 | HOU 124 OKC 125 | 2PT | 0.015 | 0.950 | 0.934 | MISS | MISS J. Smith Jr. 19' turnaround fadeaway Shot |
| 2025-10-24 | DET 115 HOU 111 | Q4 0:56 | DET 113 HOU 111 | 3PT | 0.177 | 0.585 | 0.408 | MISS | MISS J. Smith Jr. 26' 3PT |
| 2025-11-21 | DEN 112 HOU 109 | Q4 1:17 | DEN 103 HOU 101 | 3PT | 0.203 | 0.575 | 0.372 | MISS | MISS J. Smith Jr. 3PT |
| 2025-12-18 | HOU 128 NOP 133 | OT1 1:41 | HOU 123 NOP 125 | 3PT | 0.228 | 0.560 | 0.333 | MISS | MISS J. Smith Jr. 26' 3PT |
| 2025-12-21 | HOU 124 SAC 125 | OT1 0:38 | HOU 120 SAC 122 | 2PT | 0.146 | 0.396 | 0.250 | MAKE | J. Smith Jr. alley-oop DUNK |
| 2026-01-20 | SAS 106 HOU 111 | Q4 1:47 | SAS 104 HOU 104 | 2PT | 0.470 | 0.690 | 0.220 | MAKE | J. Smith Jr. 17' fadeaway Jump Shot |
| 2026-02-21 | HOU 106 NYK 108 | Q4 0:15 | HOU 103 NYK 105 | 3PT | 0.108 | 0.624 | 0.516 | MISS | MISS J. Smith Jr. 24' 3PT |
