NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	122		Excitement	13.6 [8]		MVP	Victor Wembanyama (SAS): +64.9%
Oklahoma City Thunder	115		Comeback	15.9 [87]		LVP	Stephon Castle (SAS): -64.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Victor Wembanyama	0.65	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.05,0.05,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.26,0,0.29,0.29,0.43,0.43,0.63,0.65	0.18	0.44	-0.03	25	65%	0.91	3	-0.26	13	92%	0.09
Dylan Harper	0.26	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.28,0.26,0.26	0.05	0.22	0.01	20	51%	0.35	1	-0.09	7	100%	0.11
Keldon Johnson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	9	65%	0.11	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Devin Vassell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	12	54%	0.11	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Carter Bryant	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Champagnie	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.16,0.09,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	12	46%	0.09	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Castle	-0.65	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.25,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42,-0.43,-0.47,-0.59,-0.59,-0.65,-0.65,-0.65,-0.65,-0.65	-0.19	-0.46	-0.01	14	49%	-0.02	11	-0.62	7	86%	0.02

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alex Caruso	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.38	0.38	0.22	0.20	0.03	19	76%	0.50	2	-0.11	3	33%	-0.00
Jalen Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.21,0.18	0.18	0.02	0.14	-0.02	25	49%	0.22	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Cason Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.03	0.10	-0.01	6	67%	0.17	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.25,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.07	0.09	-0.01	23	44%	0.23	4	-0.20	9	89%	0.09
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	6	42%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Joe	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	1	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jared McCain	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jaylin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chet Holmgren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.05	-0.01	7	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ajay Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.08	0.00	5	40%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	27.1	0.1	31.4	14.7	30.6	0.1	44.5	0.4	14.2	0.1	18.7	181.9
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.2	14.2	29.8	2.1	32.8	2.1	16.7	2.1	16.7	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +20.2%

SAS +27.8%

SAS +57.5%

OKC -64.6%

SAS +9.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	OKC	NBA	SAS	OKC	NBA
this game	16.1	14.4	14.2	106.1	101.8	113.5
season	13.8	13.8		117.5	117.1
opponent	14.7	14.5		105.6	108.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	14.7	17.0	14.7	20.5	13.9	16.3
OKC	12.9	15.0	16.6	13.0	14.7	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carter Bryant	43	44	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.34	11	-4	15	15.7	16.3	-0.58	16.4	13.2	3.20
Luke Kornet	76	75	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.36	9	-2	11	15.6	16.9	-1.23	14.8	13.7	1.05
Devin Vassell	115	113	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	16.1	0.0	16.06	14.4	0.0	14.43
Victor Wembanyama	115	113	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	16.1	0.0	16.06	14.4	0.0	14.43
Stephon Castle	114	113	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	16.1	6.0	10.15	14.4	0.0	14.43
Dylan Harper	114	113	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	16.1	6.0	10.15	14.4	0.0	14.43
Julian Champagnie	111	109	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.27	7	0	7	16.3	10.2	6.02	14.7	7.0	7.71
Keldon Johnson	66	66	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.10	7	0	7	16.4	15.6	0.82	15.5	12.9	2.60
Harrison Barnes	42	42	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	4	-1	16.1	16.0	0.05	13.7	14.9	-1.18

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Wiggins	7	7	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.04	-7	0	-7	16.6	14.3	2.28	19.4	15.8	3.59
Isaiah Joe	23	22	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.02	-7	0	-7	15.0	14.3	0.77	17.0	15.8	1.16
Jaylin Williams	74	75	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.19	-2	-5	3	14.8	13.8	1.01	17.0	14.2	2.78
Luguentz Dort	44	45	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.21	-3	-4	1	16.4	13.2	3.16	15.4	16.5	-1.12
Isaiah Hartenstein	100	102	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.36	1	-8	9	14.4	14.4	0.06	16.4	13.1	3.36
Ajay Mitchell	100	103	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.32	-1	-6	5	14.6	13.0	1.62	16.5	12.5	3.98
Cason Wallace	89	91	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-4	1	14.4	14.6	-0.24	16.7	13.6	3.13
Alex Caruso	101	103	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.25	-7	0	-7	14.7	12.1	2.63	16.2	15.0	1.18
Chet Holmgren	89	91	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.19	-10	3	-13	14.9	12.7	2.14	16.4	14.7	1.66
Jalen Williams	113	115	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	0	-7	14.4	0.0	14.43	16.1	0.0	16.06
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	113	115	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.37	-7	0	-7	14.4	0.0	14.43	16.1	0.0	16.06
Jared McCain	90	89	-0.80	0.30	-1.09	-0.44	-12	5	-17	15.2	11.6	3.55	16.3	15.3	0.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.19,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.29,0.43,0.32,0.58,0.5,0.45,0.29,0.33,0.73,0.5,0.55,0.22,0.15,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 123, ORL 119	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.33,0.25,0.18,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.32,0.26,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.21,0.19,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.43,0.42,0.54,0.47,0.37,0.43,0.17,0	87.8%
MIN 104, NOP 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.55,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.23,0.28,0.36,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.51,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.28,0.32,0.58,0	86.6%
UTA 96, PHX 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.24,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.15,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.29,0.19,0.34,0.25,0.55,0.35,0.58,0	86.3%