NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	119		Excitement	9.3 [140]		MVP	Donte DiVincenzo (MIN): +24.9%
Denver Nuggets	114		Comeback	5.5 [72]		LVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): -15.7%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donte DiVincenzo	0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.24,0.25	0.09	0.16	0.01	9	80%	0.31	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.06
Julius Randle	0.22	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.22	0.11	0.12	0.01	14	63%	0.25	1	-0.03	10	80%	0.05
Bones Hyland	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.12	0.06	0.02	5	108%	0.18	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
Naz Reid	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	9	50%	0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Ayo Dosunmu	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.01	8	56%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaden McDaniels	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	15	45%	0.02	3	-0.13	1	0%	-0.02
Anthony Edwards	-0.11	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11	0.05	-0.12	0.04	25	51%	0.02	2	-0.13	9	78%	0.02
Rudy Gobert	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	-0.00	4	20%	-0.04	2	-0.10	2	0%	-0.05

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cameron Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.00	10	59%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.01	4	70%	0.12	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.04	0.03	9	64%	0.11	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.12
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	-0.00	0.01	9	62%	0.10	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.05
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.10	0.01	9	40%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jonas Valan?i?nas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Joki?	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.08,-0.03,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13	-0.13	0.01	-0.15	-0.01	20	51%	-0.04	3	-0.09	7	100%	0.05
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.16	-0.16	0.08	-0.20	0.03	25	58%	-0.04	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.8	1.6	46.4	0.1	33.4	2.3	35.6	151.3
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.8	2.1	32.7	136.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +39.4%

MIN +5.5%

MIN +33.2%

DEN -28.3%

MIN +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	13.3	14.4	14.2	115.5	109.6	113.6
season	13.9	14.6		114.2	119.9
opponent	14.0	14.1		114.8	111.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.7	14.1	11.6	13.2	13.3
DEN	12.8	15.3	13.2	16.8	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donte DiVincenzo	90	91	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.28	12	-7	19	13.3	13.9	-0.66	14.5	13.8	0.66
Jaden McDaniels	96	97	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.35	5	0	5	13.5	11.9	1.60	14.6	11.4	3.21
Ayo Dosunmu	99	99	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.29	6	-1	7	13.7	5.5	8.17	14.8	6.6	8.22
Julius Randle	98	98	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.37	2	3	-1	13.3	14.4	-1.10	14.5	13.0	1.51
Anthony Edwards	93	93	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.37	2	3	-1	13.3	13.6	-0.28	14.8	11.5	3.32
Rudy Gobert	97	96	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.33	0	5	-5	13.4	12.8	0.55	14.7	11.4	3.30
Mike Conley	47	48	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	2	1	15.0	12.0	3.00	14.5	14.4	0.07
Naz Reid	87	87	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.08	-5	10	-15	13.7	11.4	2.26	14.0	16.4	-2.31
Bones Hyland	58	58	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	0.09	-15	20	-35	13.6	13.0	0.66	13.8	15.2	-1.42
Kyle Anderson	55	55	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	0.11	-17	22	-39	13.1	13.7	-0.59	13.0	16.0	-2.98

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Spencer Jones	64	64	0.36	-0.86	1.23	0.04	11	-16	27	14.4	14.5	-0.08	13.9	12.5	1.35
Cameron Johnson	90	90	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.07	1	-6	7	14.3	15.3	-1.00	13.6	11.8	1.81
Jonas Valan?i?nas	7	5	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.07	-4	-1	-3	17.3	14.2	3.07	14.4	13.3	1.10
Tim Hardaway Jr.	102	102	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.32	-3	-2	-1	14.6	6.5	8.08	13.4	5.0	8.43
Aaron Gordon	98	98	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.37	-2	-3	1	14.5	13.0	1.51	13.3	14.4	-1.10
Bruce Brown	88	90	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.32	-4	-1	-3	14.9	11.9	3.01	13.4	12.8	0.58
Christian Braun	90	91	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.36	-4	-1	-3	14.7	12.9	1.73	13.4	13.3	0.02
Nikola Joki?	102	102	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.35	-5	0	-5	14.5	9.0	5.53	13.4	6.0	7.42
Jamal Murray	104	103	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	14.4	0.0	14.42	13.3	0.0	13.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.82,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.54,0.47,0.48,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.73,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.77,0.79,0.6,0.61,0.32,0.28,0.15,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 89, MIA 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.21,0.09,0.27,0	89.7%
MIL 106, TOR 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.61,0.55,0.63,0.2,0.18,0	89.3%
IND 91, NOP 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.71,0.75,0.69,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.53,0.32,0.21,0.14,0.09,0	89.3%