NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	102		Excitement	9.5 [95]		MVP	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): +62.0%
Oklahoma City Thunder	104		Comeback	3.5 [532]		LVP	Alex Caruso (OKC): -33.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaylen Brown	0.15	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.15,-0.02,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,0.15	0.00	0.15	0.00	25	53%	0.38	6	-0.23	14	93%	0.16
Jordan Walsh	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.02	0.00	4	100%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hugo Gonz�lez	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.00	7	69%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Baylor Scheierman	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	10	55%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ron Harper Jr.	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luka Garza	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
Sam Hauser	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	10	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Neemias Queta	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	4	40%	0.03	1	-0.08	2	100%	0.03
Payton Pritchard	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,-0.06,-0.08	-0.06	-0.07	-0.04	17	41%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.44,0.62	0.62	0.20	0.43	0.00	18	80%	0.73	4	-0.11	8	87%	0.02
Chet Holmgren	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.44	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.02	10	61%	0.46	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.04
Ajay Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.10	0.02	10	65%	0.19	1	-0.04	3	67%	0.02
Jaylin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.05	0.00	5	90%	0.09	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	6	64%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Isaiah Joe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Jared McCain	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	6	25%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	8	37%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cason Wallace	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	8	25%	-0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Alex Caruso	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.2,-0.33	-0.33	-0.07	-0.26	0.00	11	32%	-0.31	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	0.1	29.2	14.8	30.5	0.1	39.4	140.3
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +35.3%

OKC +7.5%

BOS -12.1%

OKC +14.4%

OKC +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	OKC	NBA	BOS	OKC	NBA
this game	15.9	15.4	14.2	109.7	114.3	113.4
season	15.5	13.8		118.7	116.4
opponent	14.6	14.4		105.6	111.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.3	17.9	15.4	15.0	15.9
OKC	15.2	13.4	16.7	16.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Walsh	58	56	0.29	-0.79	1.07	0.08	7	-9	16	15.3	16.9	-1.59	15.6	15.1	0.50
Luka Garza	69	69	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.01	-5	3	-8	16.6	13.8	2.83	14.6	17.6	-3.00
Hugo Gonz�lez	92	89	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.18	-5	3	-8	16.1	0.0	16.07	15.5	11.0	4.46
Ron Harper Jr.	92	90	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.36	-5	3	-8	16.1	0.0	16.07	15.5	0.0	15.53
Jaylen Brown	90	87	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.37	-6	4	-10	16.1	10.3	5.74	15.5	12.0	3.52
Baylor Scheierman	83	84	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.46	-3	1	-4	16.3	12.9	3.35	15.2	17.6	-2.39
Sam Hauser	64	63	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.12	-15	13	-28	17.0	13.5	3.45	14.5	17.4	-2.93
Neemias Queta	74	72	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.33	-8	6	-14	16.2	14.8	1.32	15.5	14.8	0.72
Payton Pritchard	83	80	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.37	-8	6	-14	16.2	13.4	2.79	15.3	16.0	-0.72

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chet Holmgren	71	71	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.41	12	-10	22	15.2	16.1	-0.95	16.8	13.0	3.73
Luguentz Dort	77	76	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.41	6	-4	10	15.3	15.5	-0.16	16.3	13.9	2.46
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	91	93	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.44	2	0	2	15.4	0.0	15.36	15.9	0.0	15.89
Alex Caruso	84	87	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.40	1	1	0	15.7	11.3	4.42	15.9	16.5	-0.65
Cason Wallace	81	83	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.10	10	-8	18	15.6	13.4	2.20	16.2	13.7	2.46
Ajay Mitchell	73	74	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	-3	8	15.2	15.9	-0.66	16.4	13.7	2.71
Jaylin Williams	76	78	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.10	4	-2	6	15.2	15.9	-0.68	15.9	15.8	0.11
Jared McCain	41	40	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.14	-6	8	-14	15.1	15.6	-0.48	14.7	16.8	-2.05
Isaiah Joe	67	70	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.09	0	2	-2	15.3	15.6	-0.36	16.2	15.0	1.19
Aaron Wiggins	37	40	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.11	-3	5	-8	15.7	15.1	0.53	16.4	15.5	0.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.47,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.29,0.38,0.46,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.72,0.57,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 110, NYK 113	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.63,0.59,0.79,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.57,0.73,1	92.3%
MIN 79, NYK 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.2,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.18,0.38,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.63,0.67,0.81,1	91.5%
ORL 103, DEN 113	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.58,0.41,0.54,0.46,0.61,0.85,0.85,0.98,1	91.5%