NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	113		Excitement	9.1 [153]		MVP	Maxime Raynaud (SAC): +33.8%
Sacramento Kings	117		Comeback	7.9 [87]		LVP	Derik Queen (NOP): -31.0%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeremiah Fears	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.2	0.18	0.04	0.01	19	68%	0.26	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Saddiq Bey	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.15	0.09	0.07	0.02	15	57%	0.15	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Jordan Hawkins	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.03	0.00	7	100%	0.18	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Micah Peavy	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	0.00	5	67%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Yves Missi	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	46%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Herbert Jones	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Trey Murphy III	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.1,-0.1	0.01	-0.12	-0.01	9	65%	0.02	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Zion Williamson	-0.22	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.19,-0.11,-0.11,-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	0.00	11	50%	-0.13	4	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Derik Queen	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.31,-0.31	-0.07	-0.24	-0.01	10	36%	-0.08	2	-0.23	2	100%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maxime Raynaud	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.31,0.35,0.21,0.34	0.34	0.21	0.10	-0.03	14	80%	0.48	1	-0.14	7	86%	-0.03
Daeqwon Plowden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.12	0.02	12	59%	0.21	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.07
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.01	11	64%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Precious Achiuwa	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	10	57%	0.08	3	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Dylan Cardwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	3	100%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Nique Clifford	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,-0.01,-0.03	-0.03	0.07	-0.09	0.00	16	68%	0.19	4	-0.22	2	50%	-0.02
Devin Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	10	39%	0.03	2	-0.09	3	33%	-0.03
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	6	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Killian Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	8	28%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	0.0	28.1	0.0	28.0	0.0	42.7	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +39.4%

SAC +0.6%

SAC +17.7%

NOP -10.0%

SAC +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	SAC	NBA	NOP	SAC	NBA
this game	14.1	14.9	14.2	114.1	118.2	113.6
season	14.1	14.4		112.0	109.1
opponent	14.1	14.2		119.1	116.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	13.5	13.3	15.1	14.7	14.1
SAC	13.6	15.5	17.6	13.6	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Micah Peavy	88	89	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.12	2	-6	8	14.2	12.9	1.34	15.4	10.7	4.73
Herbert Jones	34	35	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.08	7	-11	18	13.4	14.5	-1.09	14.6	15.1	-0.54
Yves Missi	62	62	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-6	8	14.1	14.1	-0.05	15.7	13.6	2.12
Jordan Hawkins	74	75	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-5	6	14.2	13.9	0.24	15.6	13.0	2.63
Saddiq Bey	97	97	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.40	-3	-1	-2	14.0	20.0	-6.02	15.1	6.5	8.62
Jeremiah Fears	99	99	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	14.1	0.0	14.10	14.9	0.0	14.95
Derik Queen	99	99	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	14.1	0.0	14.10	14.9	0.0	14.95
Zion Williamson	83	83	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.47	-5	1	-6	13.8	15.7	-1.89	15.0	14.6	0.39
Trey Murphy III	70	69	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.51	-5	1	-6	14.3	13.7	0.53	15.1	14.5	0.60

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Carter	66	68	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.45	5	-1	6	14.8	15.3	-0.48	13.9	14.6	-0.75
Doug McDermott	80	79	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.49	2	2	0	14.8	15.4	-0.52	14.5	12.5	2.01
Maxime Raynaud	81	82	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.44	2	2	0	14.6	16.4	-1.76	13.7	16.1	-2.43
Daeqwon Plowden	99	99	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	14.9	0.0	14.95	14.1	0.0	14.10
Nique Clifford	99	99	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	0	4	14.9	0.0	14.95	14.1	0.0	14.10
Dylan Cardwell	81	82	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.49	0	4	-4	15.4	13.1	2.31	14.2	13.6	0.62
DeMar DeRozan	48	48	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.06	1	3	-2	15.4	14.6	0.79	14.3	13.9	0.37
Precious Achiuwa	67	67	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.04	-4	8	-12	15.3	14.2	1.03	13.9	14.6	-0.73
Killian Hayes	74	73	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.07	-7	11	-18	15.4	13.6	1.86	13.9	14.7	-0.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.13,0.16,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.31,0.22,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.32,0.22,0.34,0.43,0.33,0.44,0.31,0.11,0.18,0.39,0.45,0.68,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 103, ORL 108	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.3,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.18,0.16,0.1,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.24,0.31,0.29,0.21,0.34,0.19,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.15,0.22,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.91,1	91.3%
MEM 109, DEN 117	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.24,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.24,0.23,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.31,0.55,0.84,1,1	91.1%
MIA 77, CHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.26,0.35,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.38,0.78,0.8,0.99,1	91.1%