NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	105		Excitement	7.7 [263]		MVP	Kevin Durant (HOU): +30.3%
Miami Heat	115		Comeback	1.9 [328]		LVP	Amen Thompson (HOU): -13.4%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.35,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.3	0.19	0.08	-0.03	20	70%	0.30	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.05
Tari Eason	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.03	0.06	-0.02	12	42%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	7	47%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Reed Sheppard	0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	14	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Crawford	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Holiday	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Okogie	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorian Finney-Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alperen Sengun	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	14	43%	0.01	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Amen Thompson	-0.13	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	16	45%	-0.04	4	-0.10	12	50%	-0.12

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.08	-0.01	17	60%	0.21	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.04
Kel'el Ware	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.09	-0.00	10	65%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.07	-0.04	12	56%	0.17	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.03
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	12	75%	0.21	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Dru Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	10	52%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Pelle Larsson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	12	62%	0.14	3	-0.10	8	87%	-0.00
Davion Mitchell	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.04	0.01	10	50%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Simone Fontecchio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	5	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.6	3.3	26.6	0.0	34.0	0.0	32.0	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.0	29.0	14.3	29.6	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +58.9%

HOU -1.4%

MIA +4.3%

HOU -9.5%

HOU -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIA	NBA	HOU	MIA	NBA
this game	15.4	13.4	14.2	104.0	116.2	113.3
season	15.5	12.8		115.7	113.4
opponent	14.4	14.0		110.3	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.2	15.4	14.0	17.1	15.4
MIA	12.8	14.0	12.7	14.1	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Green	30	31	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.03	3	-13	16	17.0	14.7	2.37	14.0	13.1	0.96
Tari Eason	90	90	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.18	-5	-5	0	16.1	9.6	6.43	13.4	12.9	0.53
Isaiah Crawford	22	21	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.13	-10	0	-10	18.0	14.6	3.43	13.6	13.3	0.31
Reed Sheppard	98	98	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.13	-12	2	-14	15.7	5.0	10.68	13.3	24.0	-10.73
Clint Capela	73	70	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.09	-14	4	-18	15.9	14.0	1.94	13.1	14.1	-1.08
Kevin Durant	99	98	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	2	-14	15.5	6.5	9.05	13.3	24.0	-10.73
Amen Thompson	99	98	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	2	-14	15.5	6.5	9.05	13.3	24.0	-10.73
Josh Okogie	71	71	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.11	-14	4	-18	16.0	14.0	1.99	13.1	14.1	-1.02
Alperen Sengun	80	80	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.15	-13	3	-16	16.3	11.8	4.55	13.1	14.4	-1.23
Aaron Holiday	34	32	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.12	-14	4	-18	17.0	14.5	2.46	14.8	12.7	2.13
Dorian Finney-Smith	77	76	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.08	-18	8	-26	16.2	12.7	3.49	13.6	12.5	1.11

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kel'el Ware	88	90	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.14	17	-7	24	13.4	13.2	0.22	15.5	14.4	1.13
Bam Adebayo	93	95	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.16	8	2	6	13.3	14.5	-1.20	15.7	9.5	6.24
Pelle Larsson	87	88	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.18	7	3	4	13.6	11.7	1.85	15.9	11.9	3.95
Andrew Wiggins	74	75	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.26	4	6	-2	13.5	13.0	0.45	16.4	12.3	4.07
Tyler Herro	83	82	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.21	0	10	-10	13.5	12.8	0.67	16.1	12.3	3.76
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	59	61	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.00	7	3	4	12.8	14.2	-1.39	15.5	15.2	0.28
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	84	85	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.09	3	7	-4	13.1	15.1	-2.00	15.4	15.3	0.06
Simone Fontecchio	37	37	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.02	6	4	2	13.9	13.1	0.83	15.8	15.1	0.66
Davion Mitchell	73	73	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	10	-10	13.4	13.2	0.25	16.6	12.1	4.56
Dru Smith	76	74	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.03	4	6	-2	13.2	14.0	-0.87	15.1	16.0	-0.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.54,0.64,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.6,0.72,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.88,0.78,0.86,0.84,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 98, BKN 106	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.6,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.89,1,1,1	93.0%
TOR 84, DET 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.97,1,1	92.4%
BOS 86, POR 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.7,0.75,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.56,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.84,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.77,0.91,1	91.8%