NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	128		Excitement	8.8 [159]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +63.7%
Utah Jazz	125		Comeback	5.3 [341]		LVP	Tim Hardaway Jr. (DEN): -14.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.64	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.23,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.47,0.47,0.35,0.44,0.64	0.28	0.37	0.01	19	90%	0.95	7	-0.31	12	92%	0.16
Nikola Joki?	0.28	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.14,0.28	0.06	0.20	-0.02	11	67%	0.39	3	-0.11	11	91%	0.16
Jonas Valan?i?nas	0.19	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.11	0.08	0.00	6	76%	0.19	0	0.00	5	100%	0.05
Jalen Pickett	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Julian Strawther	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	-0.01	11	62%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Zeke Nnaji	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	7	65%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Bruce Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.05	0.01	11	32%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keyonte George	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.21,0.42,0.5,0.64,0.29	0.29	0.19	0.14	0.03	22	73%	0.51	4	-0.22	5	80%	0.03
Kyle Filipowski	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.15	0.12	0.01	8	76%	0.26	0	0.00	9	89%	0.03
Ace Bailey	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.07	0.13	0.00	14	56%	0.20	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Svi Mykhailiuk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	10	68%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Oscar Tshiebwe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	5	80%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Konchar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cody Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Isaiah Collier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	8	62%	0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Elijah Harkless	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	5	17%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brice Sensabaugh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	10	36%	-0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	0.0	24.2	0.0	30.3	0.0	49.9	0.0
league avg	26.3	2.0	29.0	14.3	29.6	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +4.1%

DEN +58.9%

DEN +3.9%

UTA -17.2%

DEN +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	14.0	14.5	14.2	126.7	123.8	113.3
season	14.7	14.0		119.2	112.1
opponent	13.6	14.1		119.5	115.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.4	14.1	14.6	14.1	14.0
UTA	12.2	15.9	16.1	14.2	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	93	93	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.40	5	-2	7	14.2	12.1	2.05	14.4	14.9	-0.44
Christian Braun	88	88	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.36	0	3	-3	14.4	11.6	2.75	14.4	15.2	-0.79
Bruce Brown	90	89	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.13	5	-2	7	14.1	13.6	0.42	14.6	13.3	1.28
Tim Hardaway Jr.	90	89	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.13	5	-2	7	14.1	13.6	0.42	14.6	13.3	1.28
Jonas Valan?i?nas	55	54	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.04	8	-5	13	14.0	14.0	-0.02	14.3	14.7	-0.40
Nikola Joki?	93	94	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.36	-3	6	-9	13.9	14.7	-0.80	14.3	16.4	-2.11
Zeke Nnaji	36	37	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.32	-5	8	-13	14.6	13.7	0.89	14.8	14.3	0.46
Julian Strawther	66	66	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	2	-1	14.5	13.1	1.46	14.3	14.7	-0.34
Jalen Pickett	72	71	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.06	-1	4	-5	14.5	12.7	1.80	14.4	14.7	-0.38

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Isaiah Collier	70	71	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	1	-5	14.3	14.7	-0.40	14.5	13.0	1.48
Oscar Tshiebwe	71	72	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.09	-8	5	-13	14.5	14.5	-0.05	14.3	13.3	0.98
Cody Williams	50	49	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.22	-4	1	-5	13.4	15.5	-2.11	14.1	13.9	0.14
Ace Bailey	91	91	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.33	-2	-1	-1	14.5	14.3	0.18	14.4	10.7	3.67
Svi Mykhailiuk	87	87	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.33	-2	-1	-1	14.4	14.9	-0.54	14.4	11.9	2.50
Elijah Harkless	78	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	2	-7	14.5	14.3	0.21	14.0	13.9	0.12
Keyonte George	84	83	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-2	1	14.3	15.2	-0.93	14.1	13.7	0.35
Kyle Filipowski	84	84	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-1	-1	14.3	15.2	-0.93	14.0	13.9	0.08
John Konchar	88	88	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	-1	-1	14.3	15.7	-1.41	14.2	12.7	1.51
Brice Sensabaugh	100	100	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.36	-3	0	-3	14.6	5.0	9.56	14.1	1.0	13.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.41,0.34,0.42,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.48,0.32,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.32,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.23,0.13,0.16,0.22,0.25,0.46,0.84,0.63,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 95, OKC 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.26,0.33,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.21,0.54,0.68,0.58,0	91.0%
POR 80, HOU 79	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.24,0.34,0.47,0.37,0.55,0.58,0	90.9%
TOR 104, BKN 103	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.5,0.54,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.48,0.6,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.33,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.39,0.54,0.77,0.72,0	90.4%