NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	117		Excitement	6.7 [430]		MVP	Daeqwon Plowden (SAC): +41.8%
Orlando Magic	121		Comeback	1.1 [959]		LVP	Devin Carter (SAC): -11.2%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daeqwon Plowden	0.42	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.42	0.24	0.22	0.04	12	88%	0.42	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16	0.15	0.02	0.01	24	57%	0.16	0	0.00	10	90%	0.05
Doug McDermott	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Monk	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03	0.05	-0.02	0.00	12	54%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DaQuan Jeffries	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Precious Achiuwa	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	12	58%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Killian Hayes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dylan Cardwell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Maxime Raynaud	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Devin Carter	-0.11	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	12	54%	0.04	5	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Desmond Bane	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.18,0.23	0.23	0.14	0.07	-0.02	11	77%	0.27	2	-0.03	8	100%	0.05
Paolo Banchero	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.11	0.09	-0.00	22	58%	0.24	1	-0.04	8	87%	0.04
Tristan da Silva	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.06	0.01	7	90%	0.21	2	-0.04	6	83%	-0.00
Jamal Cain	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.04	0.01	6	92%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Suggs	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.11	0.11	-0.02	0.14	0.01	8	50%	0.18	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jase Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	1	125%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jevon Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	4	87%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Goga Bitadze	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	3	75%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jett Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	8	45%	-0.01	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Moritz Wagner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.7	0.0	30.6	0.0	25.3	0.0	35.0	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +23.5%

ORL +17.8%

ORL +2.2%

ORL +3.6%

ORL +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	ORL	NBA	SAC	ORL	NBA
this game	15.4	14.6	14.2	121.9	126.0	113.6
season	14.3	14.2		108.8	114.0
opponent	14.2	14.1		112.5	119.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.4	15.6	15.3	15.4	15.4
ORL	12.8	13.8	16.8	15.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DaQuan Jeffries	61	62	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-5	6	15.0	16.1	-1.10	14.6	14.5	0.17
Devin Carter	77	77	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-2	0	15.6	14.7	0.91	14.5	14.9	-0.45
Killian Hayes	21	23	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	0	-4	15.7	15.3	0.38	12.8	15.1	-2.31
Doug McDermott	61	60	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.08	-8	4	-12	15.3	15.6	-0.29	14.5	14.7	-0.22
Dylan Cardwell	60	61	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.12	-7	3	-10	15.7	14.9	0.80	14.8	14.2	0.60
Maxime Raynaud	88	90	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.44	2	-6	8	15.3	16.4	-1.05	14.7	12.3	2.40
Daeqwon Plowden	94	95	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.37	-4	0	-4	15.5	12.5	2.98	14.6	9.0	5.64
Malik Monk	76	76	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.43	-2	-2	0	15.4	15.3	0.08	15.0	13.1	1.87
DeMar DeRozan	82	83	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.41	-4	0	-4	15.5	14.6	0.91	14.7	13.8	0.94
Precious Achiuwa	82	83	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.41	-4	0	-4	15.5	14.6	0.91	14.7	13.8	0.94

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paolo Banchero	88	87	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.41	4	0	4	14.6	14.6	-0.05	15.5	14.3	1.20
Desmond Bane	96	95	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.37	4	0	4	14.6	0.0	14.58	15.4	16.0	-0.59
Wendell Carter Jr.	80	78	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.45	0	4	-4	14.4	15.6	-1.17	15.4	15.6	-0.17
Jamal Cain	79	80	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.32	4	0	4	14.9	13.0	1.92	15.2	16.4	-1.22
Jalen Suggs	76	76	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.37	2	2	0	14.7	14.0	0.67	15.4	15.3	0.15
Tristan da Silva	89	88	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.45	-2	6	-8	14.7	12.9	1.86	15.3	16.4	-1.05
Jase Richardson	33	33	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.08	9	-5	14	12.9	15.5	-2.60	15.2	15.5	-0.31
Goga Bitadze	55	56	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.03	6	-2	8	14.4	14.8	-0.34	15.2	15.7	-0.44
Jevon Carter	69	69	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.01	2	2	0	14.4	14.9	-0.48	15.6	15.1	0.48
Jett Howard	36	35	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	6	-8	13.2	15.4	-2.18	14.6	15.9	-1.33
Moritz Wagner	28	28	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	8	-12	16.4	13.8	2.61	15.5	15.4	0.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.79,0.91,0.98,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.93,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 94, WAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.8,0.74,0.77,0.81,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.69,0.85,0.91,0.86,0.93,0.91,0.95,1	93.4%
IND 82, POR 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.67,0.8,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.68,0.83,0.91,0.95,0.86,0.95,0.99,0.96,1	92.9%
ORL 96, MIL 103	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.58,0.67,0.61,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.89,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,1	92.7%