NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	125		Excitement	3.0 [1145]		MVP	Sam Merrill (CLE): +16.9%
Detroit Pistons	94		Comeback	1.1 [557]		LVP	Ausar Thompson (DET): -5.4%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Merrill	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.20	0.00	0.03	10	96%	0.19	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Evan Mobley	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	0.00	0.03	10	68%	0.09	2	-0.02	11	55%	-0.01
Donovan Mitchell	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.00	22	52%	0.07	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Dean Wade	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	125%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Allen	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	14	56%	0.08	2	-0.03	13	54%	-0.03
Thomas Bryant	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	4	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylon Tyson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nae'Qwan Tomlin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Craig Porter Jr.	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Ellis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	150%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schröder	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	100%	0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.06	7	56%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
James Harden	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	-0.05	10	32%	-0.02	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	7	76%	0.09	3	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Caris LeVert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	5	79%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Isaiah Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Daniss Jenkins	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.02	12	53%	0.01	1	-0.00	8	87%	0.00
Ronald Holland II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chaz Lanier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tolu Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Sasser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	12	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Duren	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	7	44%	0.02	3	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Paul Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cade Cunningham	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.11	0.00	-0.08	16	37%	0.01	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	6	28%	-0.05	1	-0.00	6	83%	0.00
Ausar Thompson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	7	31%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	1.7	38.3	13.4	34.0	0.0	34.9	0.0
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.2	14.2	29.8	2.1	32.8	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +32.0%

CLE +3.1%

CLE +10.7%

CLE +2.8%

CLE +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	DET	NBA	CLE	DET	NBA
this game	14.2	14.3	14.2	125.0	92.2	113.5
season	13.9	14.3		116.3	114.9
opponent	14.4	14.6		107.5	112.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	14.5	13.3	15.0	13.9	14.2
DET	15.2	15.4	14.4	12.2	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dennis Schröder	88	90	0.52	-0.02	0.53	-0.45	33	-2	35	14.3	13.5	0.77	14.6	11.8	2.77
Evan Mobley	90	93	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.38	30	1	29	14.2	13.9	0.31	14.6	11.3	3.23
Donovan Mitchell	88	92	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.32	28	3	25	14.3	13.1	1.25	14.5	12.1	2.41
Sam Merrill	82	84	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.41	29	2	27	14.5	12.9	1.51	14.5	13.4	1.01
James Harden	82	83	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.53	32	-1	33	14.3	13.7	0.56	14.7	12.4	2.28
Dean Wade	71	72	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.39	24	7	17	14.4	13.7	0.69	14.7	13.2	1.57
Jarrett Allen	56	58	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.01	11	20	-9	14.5	13.8	0.73	14.7	13.7	1.08
Max Strus	64	64	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.30	19	12	7	14.5	13.7	0.80	14.3	14.2	0.10
Thomas Bryant	28	27	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.14	5	26	-21	13.9	14.3	-0.35	12.2	15.0	-2.79
Jaylon Tyson	28	27	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.14	5	26	-21	13.9	14.3	-0.35	12.2	15.0	-2.79
Nae'Qwan Tomlin	28	27	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.14	5	26	-21	13.9	14.3	-0.35	12.2	15.0	-2.79
Craig Porter Jr.	28	27	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.14	5	26	-21	13.9	14.3	-0.35	12.2	15.0	-2.79
Keon Ellis	28	27	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.14	5	26	-21	13.9	14.3	-0.35	12.2	15.0	-2.79

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronald Holland II	27	28	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.14	-5	-26	21	12.2	15.0	-2.79	13.9	14.3	-0.35
Chaz Lanier	27	28	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.14	-5	-26	21	12.2	15.0	-2.79	13.9	14.3	-0.35
Tolu Smith	27	28	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.14	-5	-26	21	12.2	15.0	-2.79	13.9	14.3	-0.35
Isaiah Stewart	26	26	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.02	-3	-28	25	14.2	14.3	-0.06	15.8	13.6	2.20
Paul Reed	27	26	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.13	-10	-21	11	16.0	13.7	2.35	14.9	13.9	0.95
Jalen Duren	63	63	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.32	-21	-10	-11	14.6	13.7	0.86	14.1	14.4	-0.27
Tobias Harris	67	66	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.44	-27	-4	-23	14.7	13.5	1.11	14.5	13.6	0.81
Daniss Jenkins	91	91	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.38	-25	-6	-19	14.0	16.2	-2.14	14.4	11.8	2.64
Ausar Thompson	83	82	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.44	-27	-4	-23	14.5	13.4	1.11	14.1	14.4	-0.25
Caris LeVert	63	62	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.30	-25	-6	-19	15.1	13.0	2.06	14.5	13.7	0.84
Marcus Sasser	94	93	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	0.47	-32	1	-33	14.2	15.5	-1.33	14.3	12.3	2.04
Cade Cunningham	84	82	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-33	2	-35	14.7	12.2	2.49	14.0	15.2	-1.20
Duncan Robinson	80	76	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.45	-32	1	-33	14.8	12.2	2.67	14.2	14.2	-0.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.23,0.24,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 106, DAL 81	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.2%
MEM 112, LAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.28,0.32,0.25,0.29,0.27,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.2%
OKC 126, LAC 85	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.17,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.1%