NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	128		Excitement	8.6 [186]		MVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): +55.1%
Charlotte Hornets	120		Comeback	2.0 [193]		LVP	LaMelo Ball (CHA): -11.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.55	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.48,0.56,0.55,0.55	0.28	0.27	0.00	20	77%	0.55	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24	0.12	0.11	-0.01	13	75%	0.31	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Davion Mitchell	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.03	0.00	9	72%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.08	0.00	26	42%	0.06	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Kel'el Ware	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Myron Gardner	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Pelle Larsson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	8	52%	0.02	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.02
Dru Smith	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.02	-0.06	0.02	5	33%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kon Knueppel	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.27	0.27	0.22	0.07	0.02	14	87%	0.35	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Grant Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.10	0.09	-0.00	8	71%	0.19	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Brandon Miller	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	-0.05	-0.03	12	76%	0.20	3	-0.10	5	100%	0.02
Coby White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.09	-0.00	11	48%	0.15	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.00
Moussa Diabat�	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.01	6	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sion James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Miles Bridges	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	13	43%	0.03	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Josh Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Kalkbrenner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	3	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
LaMelo Ball	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.09	-0.01	22	46%	0.02	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	0.0	30.4	0.0	29.9	0.0	38.2	0.0
league avg	26.3	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +23.0%

CHA -8.2%

MIA +3.0%

MIA +32.0%

MIA +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	14.5	14.2	14.2	128.0	120.0	113.3
season	12.8	15.0		113.8	116.3
opponent	14.0	14.4		112.4	110.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.6	12.7	15.7	17.6	14.5
CHA	16.6	12.6	15.0	13.0	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Herro	95	94	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.25	9	-1	10	14.8	10.0	4.77	14.1	16.2	-2.07
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	100	100	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.27	8	0	8	14.5	0.0	14.53	14.2	0.0	14.22
Bam Adebayo	100	100	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.27	8	0	8	14.5	0.0	14.53	14.2	0.0	14.22
Dru Smith	77	76	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.23	8	0	8	15.3	11.8	3.51	14.8	12.3	2.54
Kel'el Ware	81	81	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.26	7	1	6	14.6	14.2	0.46	14.2	14.2	0.08
Davion Mitchell	66	66	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	9	-10	13.4	16.7	-3.34	14.7	13.2	1.54
Myron Gardner	45	45	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	-0.08	0	8	-8	13.7	15.2	-1.49	14.4	14.1	0.29
Pelle Larsson	66	67	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.02	-3	11	-14	13.4	16.7	-3.25	14.8	13.0	1.87
Kasparas Jaku?ionis	65	64	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	-0.02	-5	13	-18	14.6	14.3	0.29	15.2	12.5	2.64

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Coby White	84	84	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-10	12	14.7	11.6	3.09	13.8	18.4	-4.65
Josh Green	69	69	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-9	10	14.8	12.9	1.86	13.8	16.3	-2.50
Miles Bridges	73	74	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.01	-1	-7	6	14.4	13.7	0.76	14.1	15.8	-1.67
Ryan Kalkbrenner	82	83	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.27	-6	-2	-4	14.2	14.4	-0.27	15.1	11.6	3.47
Brandon Miller	97	98	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.30	-6	-2	-4	14.4	7.0	7.44	14.8	0.0	14.83
Moussa Diabat�	85	86	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.28	-7	-1	-6	14.1	15.1	-1.00	15.2	10.4	4.85
Sion James	98	99	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.26	-8	0	-8	14.5	1.5	12.98	14.6	7.0	7.61
Grant Williams	92	93	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	2	-12	14.4	12.0	2.41	14.8	11.3	3.49
Kon Knueppel	90	90	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.24	-9	1	-10	14.2	14.4	-0.20	14.7	12.9	1.81
LaMelo Ball	86	87	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.28	-9	1	-10	14.3	13.5	0.84	14.5	14.8	-0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.53,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.47,0.58,0.36,0.2,0.22,0.11,0.22,0.07,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 94, ORL 89	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.41,0.52,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.53,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.24,0.1,0.19,0.03,0.02,0.01,0	92.7%
WAS 106, TOR 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.47,0.35,0.27,0.14,0.21,0.03,0.08,0	92.5%
IND 94, MIL 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.59,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.43,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.03,0,0	92.4%