NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	113		Excitement	7.7 [281]		MVP	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): +22.2%
Orlando Magic	108		Comeback	3.0 [563]		LVP	Tristan da Silva (ORL): -16.6%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.07,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.15	0.09	0.02	27	62%	0.28	3	-0.06	11	82%	0.01
Ajay Mitchell	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.03	0.09	-0.02	12	55%	0.16	2	-0.02	5	100%	0.05
Chet Holmgren	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.03	0.04	14	61%	0.09	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Jaylin Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	7	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Cason Wallace	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	6	64%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Joe	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared McCain	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	42%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Alex Caruso	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	3	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Hartenstein	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Desmond Bane	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.11	0.04	11	73%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Suggs	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.02	12	58%	0.11	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paolo Banchero	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.12	0.01	0.05	21	67%	0.17	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.02
Goga Bitadze	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	9	46%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.00
Jevon Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	11	46%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jamal Cain	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Noah Penda	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Moritz Wagner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	36%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jett Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	7	21%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tristan da Silva	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.10	0.04	12	46%	-0.07	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	0.6	29.2	14.4	26.8	0.1	41.4	137.4
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.0	14.3	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +14.7%

OKC +12.9%

OKC +15.4%

OKC +2.7%

OKC +4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	ORL	NBA	OKC	ORL	NBA
this game	13.3	14.9	14.2	109.7	106.9	113.4
season	13.8	14.2		116.3	113.5
opponent	14.2	14.6		111.5	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.0	12.9	13.3	13.9	13.3
ORL	15.6	13.8	16.7	13.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alex Caruso	96	94	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.37	12	-7	19	13.5	10.9	2.60	15.1	12.7	2.39
Cason Wallace	96	95	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.23	16	-11	27	13.6	8.9	4.75	15.2	10.3	4.90
Jaylin Williams	93	92	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.22	15	-10	25	13.6	10.3	3.30	15.2	12.2	2.98
Chet Holmgren	86	86	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.40	4	1	3	13.3	13.0	0.34	14.6	17.0	-2.42
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	103	101	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	0	5	13.3	0.0	13.28	14.9	0.0	14.94
Jared McCain	27	27	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.03	9	-4	13	14.1	13.0	1.07	14.8	15.0	-0.17
Aaron Wiggins	50	49	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.00	7	-2	9	13.1	13.5	-0.39	14.7	15.2	-0.48
Isaiah Joe	47	46	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	4	-3	14.5	12.2	2.30	15.7	14.3	1.39
Ajay Mitchell	80	79	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.31	-13	18	-31	13.6	12.2	1.43	14.4	16.8	-2.40
Isaiah Hartenstein	35	35	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.17	2	3	-1	14.6	12.6	2.00	14.4	15.2	-0.87
Luguentz Dort	53	50	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	0.04	-12	17	-29	13.4	13.2	0.24	14.3	15.5	-1.19

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wendell Carter Jr.	83	84	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.14	6	-11	17	14.9	14.9	-0.00	14.0	10.1	3.89
Tristan da Silva	86	87	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.29	11	-16	27	14.6	16.7	-2.11	13.6	11.4	2.18
Goga Bitadze	13	12	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.07	-1	-4	3	15.4	14.9	0.51	14.4	13.1	1.28
Jalen Suggs	87	89	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.30	6	-11	17	14.6	17.0	-2.39	13.3	12.9	0.49
Desmond Bane	97	100	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.28	0	-5	5	14.9	15.0	-0.06	13.3	11.3	2.01
Jett Howard	68	68	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.10	-14	9	-23	15.6	13.6	1.98	13.7	12.5	1.16
Noah Penda	36	36	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.13	-16	11	-27	15.5	14.6	0.87	13.2	13.3	-0.05
Jevon Carter	80	81	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.10	-9	4	-13	15.1	14.3	0.77	13.4	13.0	0.42
Jamal Cain	45	47	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.29	-3	-2	-1	14.0	15.7	-1.78	13.8	12.9	0.89
Paolo Banchero	97	99	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.38	-1	-4	3	14.8	17.2	-2.40	13.4	9.5	3.93
Moritz Wagner	60	60	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	0.04	-21	16	-37	16.0	13.4	2.57	13.3	13.3	-0.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.39,0.3,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.73,0.65,0.66,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.38,0.47,0.31,0.15,0.28,0.21,0.11,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 94, CHI 86	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.33,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.59,0.4,0.48,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.09,0.07,0.05,0,0,0	92.3%
LAL 86, POR 83	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.36,0.42,0.26,0.25,0.17,0.15,0.22,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.02,0.02,0	90.6%
CLE 118, CHA 113	0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.33,0.4,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.27,0.14,0.02,0.03,0.01,0	90.4%