NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	104		Excitement	9.6 [92]		MVP	Kelly Oubre Jr. (PHI): +31.1%
Philadelphia 76ers	105		Comeback	6.2 [339]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (PHI): -14.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Haywood Highsmith	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.13	0.02	0.12	0.01	8	50%	0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Love	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	5	83%	0.15	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.01	9	56%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovic	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	125%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Delon Wright	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.03	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	62%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Jimmy Butler	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	18	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.01
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	0.01	-0.06	-0.00	11	62%	0.11	3	-0.15	2	50%	0.00
Tyler Herro	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.28,-0.28,-0.23,-0.23,-0.13,-0.18,-0.12,-0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.13	-0.09	0.01	0.05	27	44%	0.15	5	-0.28	3	100%	0.02

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.31	0.31	0.00	0.29	-0.02	9	48%	0.36	1	-0.05	5	100%	0.06
Joel Embiid	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.24,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.01	0.24	-0.01	17	52%	0.34	3	-0.08	10	90%	0.08
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.14	0.12	-0.00	12	83%	0.30	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Paul Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.00	3	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cameron Payne	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	1	150%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrese Maxey	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	16	50%	0.02	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Tobias Harris	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	10	41%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Buddy Hield	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	8	44%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	10	35%	-0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.2	3.6	27.2	16.4	28.2	2.8	38.5	149.0
league avg	25.7	2.3	28.0	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.3	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -7.7%

PHI +36.3%

PHI +9.4%

PHI +14.3%

MIA -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHI	NBA	MIA	PHI	NBA
this game	14.8	15.9	14.5	111.8	110.5	114.0
season	14.9	14.8		112.9	115.6
opponent	14.4	14.8		112.4	110.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.5	14.2	16.7	15.8	14.8
PHI	16.8	17.9	14.6	14.3	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Love	34	36	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.22	11	-12	23	13.6	15.4	-1.85	16.0	15.8	0.18
Delon Wright	42	43	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.20	8	-9	17	14.8	14.8	-0.00	16.9	15.0	1.91
Caleb Martin	47	46	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.09	-9	8	-17	15.1	14.5	0.61	16.0	15.7	0.31
Jaime Jaquez Jr.	44	47	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.43	8	-9	17	14.3	15.2	-0.85	15.0	16.7	-1.71
Nikola Jovic	29	29	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.08	-10	9	-19	14.7	14.8	-0.06	16.0	15.8	0.15
Jimmy Butler	76	76	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.40	-1	0	-1	14.6	15.4	-0.79	16.9	11.7	5.22
Haywood Highsmith	55	57	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.55	4	-5	9	14.7	14.8	-0.13	15.0	17.1	-2.07
Bam Adebayo	59	61	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.37	-8	7	-15	15.4	13.6	1.85	15.4	16.7	-1.27
Tyler Herro	79	80	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.37	-8	7	-15	15.0	13.3	1.74	15.6	17.4	-1.82

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Oubre Jr.	75	72	0.95	-0.45	1.40	0.63	11	-10	21	15.7	16.5	-0.87	14.6	15.4	-0.80
Kyle Lowry	59	58	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.54	1	0	1	15.4	16.6	-1.11	14.0	16.1	-2.12
Tyrese Maxey	87	85	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.42	1	0	1	16.1	12.9	3.26	14.2	20.6	-6.41
Joel Embiid	75	74	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.48	-2	3	-5	15.7	16.6	-0.93	14.8	14.6	0.23
Nicolas Batum	54	53	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.50	-10	11	-21	16.2	15.4	0.75	14.4	15.3	-0.90
Paul Reed	20	19	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.01	3	-2	5	16.6	15.7	0.93	14.6	14.8	-0.23
Cameron Payne	7	6	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.02	2	-1	3	10.3	16.3	-6.02	19.0	14.5	4.53
Tobias Harris	63	65	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.07	1	0	1	16.3	15.0	1.35	15.1	14.0	1.09
Buddy Hield	35	33	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	-0.11	-2	3	-5	16.1	15.7	0.35	17.2	13.4	3.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.47,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.29,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.3,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.68,0.7,0.59,0.45,0.38,0.29,0.45,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 85, BOS 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.18,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.42,1	90.6%
BKN 93, ORL 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.52,0.53,0.67,0.59,0.59,0.73,0.53,0.36,0.24,0.42,1	90.4%
LAL 92, GSW 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.42,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.31,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.28,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.29,0.45,0.74,1	89.9%