NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	93		Excitement	7.7 [344]		MVP	Franz Wagner (ORL): +23.9%
Orlando Magic	95		Comeback	4.4 [203]		LVP	Cole Anthony (ORL): -13.5%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick White	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.16	0.07	0.08	-0.00	14	57%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.04	0.00	14	58%	0.15	6	-0.14	5	80%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.01	0.09	-0.08	0.02	22	64%	0.19	7	-0.21	12	100%	0.11
Kristaps Porzingis	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	-0.04	10	30%	0.02	2	-0.06	3	33%	-0.02
Sam Hauser	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Payton Pritchard	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Franz Wagner	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.26,0.24	0.24	0.03	0.18	-0.03	27	48%	0.27	1	-0.03	12	58%	-0.03
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.08	-0.00	8	56%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Caleb Houstan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	1	150%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Black	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.04	-0.01	8	45%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jonathan Isaac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paolo Banchero	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	25	50%	-0.00	4	-0.10	8	87%	0.03
Cole Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.14,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	0.00	4	50%	0.01	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	34.4	2.8	29.3	16.5	32.2	2.8	47.0	164.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +11.6%

BOS -16.6%

ORL +20.4%

ORL +24.9%

ORL +9.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	ORL	NBA	BOS	ORL	NBA
this game	15.9	15.4	14.4	102.2	102.2	113.1
season	15.3	15.4		118.7	108.5
opponent	14.4	14.5		108.9	109.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.4	16.3	18.1	16.7	15.9
ORL	13.3	15.7	17.9	15.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Kornet	36	37	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.04	8	-10	18	15.7	16.1	-0.40	16.1	14.9	1.13
Sam Hauser	26	25	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.08	0	-2	2	15.1	16.3	-1.20	16.0	15.1	0.85
Derrick White	73	76	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.35	4	-6	10	16.4	14.2	2.13	16.0	12.7	3.27
Al Horford	63	66	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.42	6	-8	14	15.7	16.6	-0.92	16.2	13.3	2.98
Jayson Tatum	75	78	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.36	2	-4	6	15.1	19.7	-4.63	15.3	15.9	-0.66
Jaylen Brown	67	65	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.23	-8	6	-14	16.5	14.4	2.06	14.5	17.5	-3.04
Payton Pritchard	47	47	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	4	-10	16.5	15.3	1.24	15.7	15.0	0.66
Kristaps Porzingis	68	71	-0.86	0.36	-1.22	-0.39	-16	14	-30	16.1	15.3	0.84	14.1	19.5	-5.40

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Harris	43	41	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.24	9	-7	16	15.9	14.9	1.03	16.6	15.4	1.19
Anthony Black	25	27	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.02	16	-14	30	15.8	15.2	0.63	16.0	15.9	0.15
Cole Anthony	26	27	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.00	15	-13	28	15.8	15.2	0.65	16.3	15.8	0.57
Franz Wagner	76	74	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.48	-4	6	-10	15.0	17.2	-2.20	15.9	15.9	-0.01
Jonathan Isaac	32	33	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.07	10	-8	18	14.4	15.9	-1.48	17.2	15.2	1.91
Paolo Banchero	80	78	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.39	-3	5	-8	15.5	14.5	1.06	15.9	16.2	-0.26
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	64	60	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.42	-10	12	-22	15.0	16.2	-1.21	15.2	17.4	-2.15
Wendell Carter Jr.	60	57	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.41	-10	12	-22	16.1	14.1	1.95	15.5	16.7	-1.19
Cory Joseph	53	53	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.21	-9	11	-20	15.2	15.7	-0.52	15.6	16.4	-0.88
Caleb Houstan	6	5	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	6	-10	14.8	15.4	-0.58	18.2	15.8	2.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.36,0.43,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.31,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.72,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.74,0.85,0.8,0.85,0.96,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.72,0.67,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 98, CHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.76,0.83,0.89,0.92,0.85,0.98,1	90.4%
NJN 97, SEA 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.71,0.74,0.84,0.9,0.86,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.9,0.92,1	90.4%
CLE 99, WAS 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.95,0.89,0.89,0.82,1	90.2%