NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	101		Excitement	5.8 [689]		MVP	Kevin Durant (GSW): +19.1%
Houston Rockets	92		Comeback	5.6 [454]		LVP	Trevor Ariza (HOU): -22.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.16	0.07	0.04	21	65%	0.22	2	-0.03	10	70%	-0.01
Stephen Curry	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.05,0.06,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.05	0.10	-0.02	22	61%	0.29	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.05	0.01	13	68%	0.16	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Nick Young	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quinn Cook	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick McCaw	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevon Looney	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Jordan Bell	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.13	-0.00	0.00	13	38%	-0.03	5	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clint Capela	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.02	0.01	10	77%	0.15	1	-0.01	6	33%	-0.04
Eric Gordon	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	22	48%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Ryan Anderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	64%	0.07	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	7	21%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	0.04	29	48%	0.03	5	-0.12	8	75%	-0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23	-0.23	-0.23	-0.05	-0.05	12	0%	-0.20	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.2	2.8	27.0	15.6	28.4	2.7	35.2	142.9
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +73.1%

HOU -7.8%

HOU -4.7%

HOU -10.3%

HOU -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	HOU	NBA	GSW	HOU	NBA
this game	15.3	16.2	14.7	109.8	101.1	107.5
season	13.7	14.6		112.6	112.8
opponent	14.8	15.1		105.6	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.7	14.0	13.9	18.6	15.3
HOU	14.1	18.7	18.8	13.3	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Curry	86	84	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.20	13	-4	17	15.2	17.7	-2.50	16.0	18.6	-2.62
Jordan Bell	30	30	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.05	17	-8	25	14.2	15.9	-1.72	18.1	15.2	2.90
Draymond Green	85	85	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.20	11	-2	13	15.0	19.0	-3.98	16.3	14.2	2.13
Kevin Durant	84	84	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.16	10	-1	11	15.3	15.9	-0.60	16.3	13.9	2.49
Nick Young	31	29	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.19	5	4	1	14.0	16.0	-2.00	17.4	15.5	1.90
Klay Thompson	59	60	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.14	0	9	-9	16.3	13.6	2.68	15.3	17.7	-2.41
Kevon Looney	34	33	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	8	-7	15.6	15.2	0.37	15.1	16.8	-1.72
Quinn Cook	3	3	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	7	-5	17.3	15.3	2.07	13.7	16.2	-2.57
Patrick McCaw	2	2	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	11	-13	18.5	15.3	3.24	10.5	16.3	-5.78
Shaun Livingston	46	45	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.18	-12	21	-33	16.3	14.4	1.87	16.1	16.2	-0.13

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	9	8	0.09	-0.59	0.69	-0.02	4	-13	17	15.2	16.3	-1.03	19.4	14.9	4.43
Gerald Green	38	39	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.23	10	-19	29	16.3	16.1	0.23	16.0	14.8	1.13
PJ Tucker	84	86	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.28	-1	-8	7	16.2	15.1	1.10	15.2	16.7	-1.43
Clint Capela	71	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.04	-13	4	-17	16.5	14.8	1.67	15.3	15.5	-0.19
Eric Gordon	76	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	-4	-1	16.0	16.7	-0.69	15.4	15.1	0.24
Ryan Anderson	16	15	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	3	-15	17.9	15.8	2.09	13.7	15.6	-1.98
James Harden	82	84	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.21	-13	4	-17	16.3	15.2	1.03	14.9	19.4	-4.43
Trevor Ariza	79	81	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.20	-15	6	-21	15.4	20.9	-5.49	15.4	14.6	0.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.81,0.8,0.76,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.48,0.37,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.02,0.06,0.13,0.03,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 108, IND 98	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.61,0.68,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.3,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	93.8%
SAS 102, DAL 89	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.71,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.64,0.73,0.76,0.84,0.86,0.83,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.65,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.26,0.19,0.09,0.14,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.6%
BOS 89, ATL 81	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.81,0.83,0.87,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.88,0.88,0.81,0.8,0.72,0.7,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.55,0.48,0.4,0.25,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.01,0.03,0,0	93.3%