NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	101		Excitement	6.3 [540]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +25.4%
Cleveland Cavaliers	106		Comeback	2.1 [751]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -28.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.17	0.06	0.03	8	83%	0.21	0	0.00	7	100%	0.04
Jimmy Butler	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.08	0.16	-0.03	0.05	18	66%	0.11	1	-0.03	8	100%	0.03
Nikola Mirotic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Tony Snell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	71%	0.09	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Brooks	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	4	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	12	38%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Rose	-0.28	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.28	-0.13	-0.17	-0.02	24	31%	-0.27	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.25	0.25	0.21	0.05	0.01	24	63%	0.25	0	0.00	12	75%	0.03
Kyrie Irving	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.04	-0.01	16	68%	0.20	3	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Iman Shumpert	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	10	65%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	7	67%	0.12	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.04
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	1	125%	0.10	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.04
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.01	11	55%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.17	-0.02	-0.01	7	6%	-0.12	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	3.0	34.2	17.5	27.7	3.0	47.0	157.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +64.9%

CHI -8.3%

CHI -17.0%

CLE +8.2%

CLE +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	CLE	NBA	CHI	CLE	NBA
this game	15.6	17.1	15.1	114.8	120.5	104.2
season	15.5	15.9		105.4	108.7
opponent	14.9	15.2		104.1	102.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.0	16.9	14.8	14.8	15.6
CLE	17.5	14.4	18.6	18.0	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	48	48	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.06	1	-6	7	16.1	15.1	0.96	17.1	17.0	0.15
Tony Snell	10	9	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.10	-9	4	-13	15.2	15.7	-0.51	12.2	17.6	-5.41
Mike Dunleavy	68	67	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.43	9	-14	23	14.8	18.4	-3.56	17.9	14.6	3.29
Derrick Rose	78	77	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.34	5	-10	15	15.2	18.9	-3.67	17.7	12.5	5.29
Jimmy Butler	73	74	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.48	9	-14	23	15.5	16.5	-0.99	18.0	12.0	6.04
Joakim Noah	73	74	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-7	9	15.5	16.4	-0.91	17.8	13.1	4.77
Aaron Brooks	14	15	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.01	-12	7	-19	18.6	15.1	3.48	12.7	18.0	-5.24
Kirk Hinrich	42	42	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.23	-7	2	-9	15.8	15.5	0.26	16.2	17.9	-1.75
Nikola Mirotic	34	34	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	0.02	-23	18	-41	17.1	14.8	2.30	14.5	18.7	-4.16

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matthew Dellavedova	34	33	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.24	11	-6	17	15.9	17.9	-2.00	16.5	15.1	1.34
J.R. Smith	53	54	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.04	18	-13	31	16.1	18.6	-2.52	15.9	15.3	0.62
Iman Shumpert	74	76	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.38	0	5	-5	18.0	12.3	5.70	15.7	15.2	0.56
Tristan Thompson	72	71	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.36	-2	7	-9	17.9	13.6	4.30	15.1	18.1	-2.99
LeBron James	75	72	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.38	-4	9	-13	17.8	13.1	4.70	15.7	15.2	0.49
Kyrie Irving	72	74	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.33	-4	9	-13	17.2	16.3	0.94	15.1	18.3	-3.14
James Jones	13	13	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.03	8	-3	11	11.6	18.0	-6.41	17.6	15.3	2.31
Timofey Mozgov	44	44	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.06	-2	7	-9	16.8	17.4	-0.61	15.6	15.7	-0.07
Kendrick Perkins	3	3	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	5	-5	14.3	17.2	-2.84	16.0	15.6	0.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.61,0.62,0.56,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.93,0.81,0.95,0.95,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 95, SEA 103	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.43,0.42,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.75,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.8,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.94,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.89,0.84,0.99,1,1	92.6%
WAS 90, CHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.6,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.77,0.85,0.8,0.75,0.71,0.75,0.69,0.58,0.45,0.48,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.93,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.85,1	92.6%
BOS 89, CHI 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.8,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.77,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	92.4%