NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	107		Excitement	5.0 [819]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +28.6%
Oklahoma City Thunder	100		Comeback	1.0 [304]		LVP	Kevin Martin (OKC): -14.1%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.21	0.04	-0.03	16	84%	0.34	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.02
Patrick Beverley	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.03	-0.04	11	58%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Omer Asik	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	-0.01	0.03	6	70%	0.12	2	-0.05	18	72%	-0.03
Francisco Garcia	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.01	14	60%	0.09	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Delfino	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	11	38%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Chandler Parsons	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	-0.02	12	36%	-0.04	3	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.02	-0.05	23	58%	0.20	3	-0.05	16	81%	0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	14	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	15	56%	0.05	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.04	8	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Liggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	6	50%	-0.05	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.14	-0.01	-0.01	10	14%	-0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	3.5	31.4	18.4	31.9	2.8	40.1	154.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +48.2%

HOU +4.7%

HOU +7.5%

OKC -12.3%

HOU +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	OKC	NBA	HOU	OKC	NBA
this game	15.1	14.8	15.4	110.3	104.2	104.1
season	14.2	14.8		107.9	109.3
opponent	15.5	15.4		100.6	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	17.4	18.5	12.4	13.3	15.1
OKC	16.9	15.8	14.2	12.9	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	85	82	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.17	16	-9	25	14.8	17.2	-2.47	14.9	13.9	0.97
Omer Asik	78	77	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.21	12	-5	17	14.2	18.7	-4.48	14.9	14.3	0.62
Patrick Beverley	81	79	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	4	-1	14.2	19.6	-5.36	14.7	15.1	-0.36
Chandler Parsons	85	85	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.32	2	5	-3	15.1	15.0	0.09	14.4	17.8	-3.45
Francisco Garcia	80	82	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.32	0	7	-7	14.6	17.2	-2.54	15.3	11.7	3.57
Aaron Brooks	39	37	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.03	8	-1	9	16.5	14.1	2.39	14.2	15.1	-0.93
Carlos Delfino	18	19	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	8	-9	19.3	14.1	5.22	15.1	14.7	0.36
Greg Smith	19	19	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.08	-5	12	-17	18.7	14.2	4.48	14.3	14.9	-0.62

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	13	11	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-7	7	13.5	15.0	-1.50	19.8	14.5	5.34
Kevin Martin	45	44	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-9	11	14.7	14.8	-0.05	16.3	14.1	2.26
Derek Fisher	60	60	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.30	7	-14	21	13.9	16.2	-2.25	15.4	14.6	0.79
Thabo Sefolosha	73	73	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.34	1	-8	9	14.9	14.3	0.54	14.2	17.7	-3.54
Kendrick Perkins	31	32	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.05	-13	6	-19	16.5	14.0	2.50	13.7	15.8	-2.13
DeAndre Liggins	33	35	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.12	-8	1	-9	14.5	14.9	-0.47	16.4	14.3	2.11
Serge Ibaka	70	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.31	-3	-4	1	15.2	13.5	1.73	14.8	15.9	-1.07
Kevin Durant	90	91	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.21	-8	1	-9	15.0	11.8	3.12	14.9	17.7	-2.75
Reggie Jackson	65	67	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.15	-13	6	-19	14.2	15.8	-1.59	14.7	16.0	-1.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.06,0.12,0.16,0.21,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.11,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 85, SAC 77	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.17,0.18,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0,0,0	95.4%
MIL 92, NJN 85	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.13,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0	94.9%
HOU 117, MIL 103	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.12,0.08,0.16,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%