NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	96		Excitement	8.2 [248]		MVP	Josh Howard (DAL): +18.3%
Miami Heat	98		Comeback	37.9 [55]		LVP	Jason Terry (DAL): -20.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Howard	0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.14	0.06	0.02	13	75%	0.22	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Devin Harris	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.14	-0.01	0.14	-0.00	7	53%	0.18	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
Erick Dampier	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.01	7	74%	0.11	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.07
DeSagana Diop	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.07,0.13,0.13,-0.01	0.05	-0.08	-0.01	20	58%	0.15	3	-0.16	12	83%	-0.14
Marquis Daniels	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19	-0.13	-0.06	-0.00	9	20%	-0.14	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,-0.08,-0.2	0.01	-0.21	0.00	14	53%	-0.04	2	-0.16	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.17	0.17	-0.02	0.19	0.00	1	100%	0.24	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.21,0.15	0.15	0.19	0.05	0.09	26	60%	0.17	1	-0.02	18	72%	-0.03
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.06
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.10	0.07	0.00	8	36%	0.06	3	-0.09	6	33%	-0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	11	55%	0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	17	33%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.02	9	67%	0.08	7	-0.19	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.3	3.7	37.2	20.5	32.0	3.6	40.2	167.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +0.5%

MIA +11.3%

MIA +36.2%

MIA +5.8%

DAL -3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.8	14.3	15.6	101.1	102.1	104.4
season	16.4	15.5		109.0	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.6		102.3	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.1	15.0	15.5	16.9	15.8
MIA	11.6	13.8	17.3	15.1	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adrian Griffin	28	28	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.01	6	-8	14	15.7	15.9	-0.18	15.6	13.8	1.81
Erick Dampier	56	56	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.08	9	-11	20	16.3	15.2	1.12	15.1	13.2	1.93
DeSagana Diop	21	22	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	-1	0	15.8	15.9	-0.10	14.1	14.4	-0.30
Marquis Daniels	9	8	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.02	-7	5	-12	18.9	15.5	3.37	14.5	14.3	0.19
Keith Van Horn	19	19	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	8	-18	16.1	15.8	0.33	11.5	15.0	-3.49
Josh Howard	82	83	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.43	4	-6	10	15.9	15.6	0.26	15.2	8.8	6.33
Dirk Nowitzki	88	88	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.47	5	-7	12	15.6	18.9	-3.25	14.9	8.4	6.49
Devin Harris	40	41	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.26	-8	6	-14	15.6	16.0	-0.42	12.0	16.0	-3.97
Jason Terry	70	70	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.57	-2	0	-2	15.7	16.3	-0.65	14.6	13.5	1.18
Jerry Stackhouse	62	65	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.46	-6	4	-10	15.6	16.2	-0.61	13.2	16.6	-3.43

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	68	69	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.47	12	-10	22	14.1	14.8	-0.65	15.6	16.5	-0.96
James Posey	56	54	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.50	8	-6	14	13.7	15.2	-1.46	16.2	15.3	0.88
Jason Williams	69	69	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.47	5	-3	8	14.6	13.7	0.91	15.7	16.1	-0.38
Dwyane Wade	87	86	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.43	6	-4	10	14.2	15.8	-1.61	15.8	16.2	-0.42
Gary Payton	40	38	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.37	-6	8	-14	13.5	14.9	-1.37	15.3	16.2	-0.88
Alonzo Mourning	18	17	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.06	4	-2	6	13.8	14.4	-0.60	16.9	15.6	1.27
Shaquille O'Neal	71	72	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.09	-5	7	-12	15.0	12.4	2.60	16.1	15.2	0.88
Antoine Walker	71	70	-0.47	0.97	-1.44	-0.06	-14	16	-30	14.8	12.9	1.90	15.8	16.0	-0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.75,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.18,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.28,0.09,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 107, DAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.26,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.22,0.24,0.28,1	90.9%
CHI 106, BKN 107	0.5,0.49,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.76,0.65,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.24,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.37,0.45,0.58,1	90.5%
DET 107, CHA 108	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.64,0.63,0.77,0.75,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.29,0.38,0.34,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.28,0.55,0.73,1	89.4%