NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	83		Excitement	6.3 [554]		MVP	Morris Peterson (TOR): +19.5%
Toronto Raptors	89		Comeback	1.9 [681]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): -20.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	2	150%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dana Barros	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zeljko Rebraca	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	10	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Chucky Atkins	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.02	-0.06	0.05	15	56%	-0.07	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Jon Barry	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.15,-0.09,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.01	-0.09	-0.00	8	67%	0.00	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.08
Ben Wallace	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	6	14%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	0.01	13	44%	-0.10	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21	-0.16	-0.05	-0.00	18	38%	-0.06	5	-0.15	3	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.11	0.07	-0.01	12	71%	0.19	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	15	58%	0.07	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine Jackson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.04	-0.01	16	42%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	8	39%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Chris Childs	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	0.00	-0.01	8	45%	-0.01	5	-0.11	4	75%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.00	-0.00	15	30%	-0.08	2	-0.07	3	0%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	495.2	2.8	31.1	19.4	28.6	3.4	36.6	617.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +43.2%

DET -0.2%

TOR +1.1%

TOR +4.6%

TOR +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	TOR	NBA	DET	TOR	NBA
this game	16.4	17.3	15.6	97.6	103.5	102.3
season	15.7	16.2		101.9	100.3
opponent	15.6	15.8		100.9	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.5	17.7	16.1	17.4	16.4
TOR	16.8	17.4	18.2	16.9	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Curry	30	31	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.10	5	-11	16	15.4	16.9	-1.42	19.4	16.1	3.27
Dana Barros	1	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-8	10	7.0	16.5	-9.46	6.0	17.6	-11.60
Clifford Robinson	73	76	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.33	8	-14	22	15.8	19.9	-4.15	16.9	20.5	-3.59
Chucky Atkins	64	63	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.31	6	-12	18	15.6	18.7	-3.07	17.0	18.2	-1.22
Zeljko Rebraca	8	9	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.05	-10	4	-14	18.9	16.1	2.78	22.3	16.7	5.59
Jerry Stackhouse	69	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-6	6	16.0	18.0	-2.03	16.6	20.2	-3.59
Damon Jones	21	23	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.01	-12	6	-18	18.7	15.6	3.07	18.2	17.0	1.22
Jon Barry	38	38	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.22	-6	0	-6	16.5	16.2	0.27	18.0	16.8	1.16
Corliss Williamson	52	52	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.13	-11	5	-16	16.9	15.5	1.32	16.7	18.3	-1.55
Ben Wallace	69	68	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.25	-12	6	-18	17.1	13.0	4.13	17.4	17.2	0.20

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keon Clark	63	63	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.20	10	-4	14	17.2	17.7	-0.45	16.4	16.3	0.11
Alvin Williams	75	75	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.30	4	2	2	17.0	19.5	-2.55	16.4	16.1	0.29
Jerome Williams	37	35	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.23	5	1	4	18.9	16.2	2.70	17.1	15.8	1.25
Hakeem Olajuwon	24	24	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.06	9	-3	12	18.4	16.9	1.46	19.0	15.3	3.75
Chris Childs	58	57	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.21	3	3	0	17.8	16.4	1.38	15.6	17.9	-2.24
Dell Curry	34	33	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.07	7	-1	8	15.7	18.4	-2.63	17.0	16.0	1.01
Antonio Davis	72	71	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	6	-6	16.6	21.1	-4.47	15.9	18.4	-2.48
Morris Peterson	65	66	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.33	-6	12	-18	18.1	14.8	3.33	15.8	18.2	-2.32
Jermaine Jackson	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	8	-10	6.0	17.6	-11.60	7.0	16.5	-9.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.73,0.66,0.71,0.66,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.6,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.92,0.91,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 103, OKC 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.82,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.78,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.78,0.83,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.9,0.92,1,1,1	94.4%
DET 83, PHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.81,0.72,0.62,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.6%
BKN 101, LAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.78,0.8,0.77,0.89,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.84,0.91,1	93.4%