NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	71		Excitement	7.7 [168]		MVP	Lindsey Hunter (DET): +10.2%
Detroit Pistons	75		Comeback	5.0 [266]		LVP	Jeff McInnis (WAS): -58.5%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Calbert Cheaney	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.05	0.00	9	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Mitch Richmond	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03,-0.06,-0.06	0.03	-0.12	-0.03	14	65%	0.13	3	-0.19	6	100%	0.05
Chris Whitney	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	17	41%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	0.00	6	25%	-0.08	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	-0.18	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.11	0.00	8	45%	-0.13	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.11
Jeff McInnis	-0.59	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.39,-0.43,-0.59	-0.19	-0.38	0.02	12	36%	-0.17	6	-0.42	4	50%	-0.04

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	0.00	9	73%	0.18	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.08
Eric Montross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.06	-0.00	2	50%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	3	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loy Vaught	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.05	0.00	13	56%	-0.00	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	2	60%	0.01	1	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Joe Dumars	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bison Dele	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	5	33%	-0.01	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.03
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.07	0.00	5	36%	-0.08	3	-0.10	4	75%	-0.01
Grant Hill	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.31,-0.36,-0.3,-0.3,-0.31	-0.31	-0.16	-0.16	-0.01	17	44%	-0.06	5	-0.25	9	56%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.5	25.3	16.8	25.2	2.5	40.4	137.4
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +26.0%

DET +30.8%

WAS -9.9%

DET +9.5%

WAS -6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	DET	NBA	WAS	DET	NBA
this game	17.5	17.2	15.8	85.5	90.4	99.6
season	15.5	16.6		98.8	101.4
opponent	16.1	15.9		97.9	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	18.1	16.6	17.0	18.4	17.5
DET	17.1	16.1	18.1	17.6	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Whitney	16	16	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.02	2	-6	8	17.7	17.4	0.24	17.2	17.2	0.06
Terry Davis	33	34	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-6	8	17.6	17.4	0.19	17.6	16.9	0.75
Tracy Murray	23	24	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.02	2	-6	8	16.6	17.8	-1.28	17.2	17.2	0.00
Ben Wallace	30	29	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.08	-3	-1	-2	17.1	17.7	-0.67	16.4	17.6	-1.27
Otis Thorpe	68	67	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.37	-4	0	-4	18.1	14.9	3.21	17.6	15.6	1.96
Calbert Cheaney	39	37	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.38	-4	0	-4	18.2	16.9	1.24	16.6	17.7	-1.10
Juwan Howard	74	76	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.44	-3	-1	-2	17.2	20.1	-2.94	17.3	15.9	1.47
Jeff McInnis	67	67	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.40	-6	2	-8	17.4	17.7	-0.24	17.2	17.2	-0.06
Mitch Richmond	65	65	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.40	-6	2	-8	17.3	18.1	-0.79	17.2	17.4	-0.24

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Loy Vaught	57	56	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.28	20	-16	36	16.5	18.7	-2.22	17.7	17.1	0.51
Lindsey Hunter	69	71	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.54	10	-6	16	16.8	19.0	-2.16	17.4	17.9	-0.49
Joe Dumars	57	57	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.38	7	-3	10	17.5	16.5	1.03	17.4	17.7	-0.29
Grant Hill	63	61	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.34	6	-2	8	17.3	17.0	0.20	17.3	18.0	-0.63
Eric Montross	38	37	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.24	1	3	-2	16.5	17.8	-1.35	17.5	17.5	0.08
Bison Dele	45	46	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.15	3	1	2	17.8	16.5	1.35	17.5	17.5	-0.08
Jerry Stackhouse	33	32	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.01	-5	9	-14	16.5	17.7	-1.20	17.3	17.6	-0.35
Jud Buechler	28	29	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	-0.10	-6	10	-16	17.6	17.0	0.61	18.0	17.2	0.72
Jerome Williams	25	26	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	0.08	-16	20	-36	19.4	16.2	3.20	17.7	17.4	0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.42,0.29,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.25,0.21,0.67,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 97, TOR 100	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.3,0.26,0.47,0.57,0.58,0.47,0.54,0.4,0.19,0.28,0.57,0.73,1	91.6%
SAS 91, SEA 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.67,0.85,1	91.0%
LAL 90, PHI 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.48,0.54,0.65,0.48,0.43,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.18,0.14,0.29,0.77,0.92,1	90.7%