NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	99		Excitement	7.3 [352]		MVP	Mitch Richmond (SAC): +22.8%
Sacramento Kings	103		Comeback	4.1 [407]		LVP	Armen Gilliam (MIL): -28.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sherman Douglas	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13	0.14	0.00	0.01	11	80%	0.13	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
David Wood	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.04	0.01	5	64%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Darrin Hancock	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Perry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	5	40%	0.07	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Vin Baker	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Glenn Robinson	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	21	56%	-0.00	3	-0.07	10	70%	-0.00
Joe Wolf	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.23,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.14	-0.14	-0.00	10	33%	-0.22	2	-0.05	7	71%	-0.03
Armen Gilliam	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.28	-0.16	-0.14	-0.02	14	41%	-0.15	5	-0.13	6	67%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.08	0.13	-0.01	18	68%	0.28	3	-0.05	8	87%	0.03
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.01	18	58%	0.14	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Duane Causwell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Gamble	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.01	16	61%	0.09	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	57%	0.02	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Olden Polynice	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	13	47%	0.00	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03
Billy Owens	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lionel Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Tyus Edney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.07	0.01	3	33%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.6	2.4	24.4	16.7	24.6	1.8	35.3	134.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +52.6%

MIL -0.8%

SAC +0.2%

MIL -4.1%

SAC +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAC	NBA	MIL	SAC	NBA
this game	16.7	14.8	15.6	108.8	112.0	104.4
season	16.0	15.4		103.9	102.4
opponent	15.4	15.5		106.0	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.1	17.2	18.7	15.1	16.7
SAC	14.6	12.8	16.4	15.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vin Baker	18	19	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.10	10	-14	24	17.2	16.6	0.62	16.3	14.4	1.96
Darrin Hancock	12	12	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.00	2	-6	8	14.9	17.0	-2.08	10.5	15.4	-4.90
David Wood	42	40	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-1	-2	15.7	17.6	-1.92	13.4	15.8	-2.32
Elliot Perry	25	25	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.09	0	-4	4	16.9	16.7	0.27	15.4	14.5	0.93
Joe Wolf	24	26	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.04	-13	9	-22	20.5	15.4	5.07	16.5	14.1	2.42
Ray Allen	48	48	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.42	2	-6	8	16.8	16.7	0.14	15.9	13.5	2.46
Sherman Douglas	66	67	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	0	-4	16.7	16.9	-0.27	14.5	15.4	-0.93
Armen Gilliam	82	82	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-3	2	16.4	19.7	-3.26	14.5	16.6	-2.06
Glenn Robinson	81	82	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.41	-3	-1	-2	16.8	15.8	1.04	14.6	16.4	-1.84
Johnny Newman	57	59	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.27	-10	6	-16	16.4	17.3	-0.91	14.9	14.5	0.34

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Olden Polynice	65	66	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.43	7	-3	10	15.7	12.4	3.28	17.2	15.5	1.72
Mitch Richmond	79	79	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.34	7	-3	10	14.6	16.0	-1.44	16.8	15.9	0.93
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	60	61	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.26	8	-4	12	15.9	12.6	3.28	17.3	15.6	1.63
Lionel Simmons	50	50	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.29	3	1	2	13.9	15.8	-1.84	15.7	18.0	-2.28
Billy Owens	31	31	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.11	7	-3	10	16.6	13.8	2.74	19.0	15.6	3.40
Corliss Williamson	63	61	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.28	-4	8	-12	14.0	16.3	-2.26	15.5	19.2	-3.69
Michael Smith	56	55	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.11	-1	5	-6	14.4	15.3	-0.85	16.3	17.4	-1.10
Tyus Edney	32	30	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	8	-12	12.6	15.9	-3.28	15.6	17.3	-1.63
Kevin Gamble	8	7	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.05	1	3	-2	13.7	14.9	-1.11	19.0	16.5	2.46
Duane Causwell	16	15	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	10	-16	15.4	14.6	0.82	18.3	16.4	1.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.2,0.27,0.31,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.77,0.66,0.74,0.58,0.41,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.83,0.95,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 86, SEA 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.21,0.23,0.24,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.18,0.29,0.34,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.62,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.47,0.66,0.62,0.61,0.78,0.67,0.95,1	92.1%
HOU 93, DAL 102	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.27,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.59,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.74,0.82,0.76,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.78,0.83,0.88,0.98,1,1	91.6%
IND 91, ORL 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.37,0.4,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.98,1	90.9%