NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	119		Excitement	8.3 [237]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (CHI): +38.5%
New York Knicks	115		Comeback	1.6 [676]		LVP	Lonzo Ball (CHI): -23.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.38	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.13,0.21,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.38	0.18	0.25	0.04	19	69%	0.42	2	-0.04	11	91%	0.00
Zach LaVine	0.29	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.21,0.13,0.29	0.09	0.20	-0.00	18	64%	0.35	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.12
Nikola Vucevic	0.11	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.11,0.11	0.15	-0.01	0.03	18	71%	0.15	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Troy Brown Jr.	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	2	125%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ayo Dosunmu	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Javonte Green	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alex Caruso	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.10	-0.11	-0.01	7	37%	-0.03	4	-0.18	2	100%	0.01
Lonzo Ball	-0.24	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.11	-0.13	-0.01	14	29%	-0.18	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitchell Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.06	0.00	5	69%	0.15	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.03
Alec Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.06	0.01	10	53%	0.10	1	-0.02	10	90%	-0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.00	6	80%	0.11	3	-0.04	8	100%	0.04
Kevin Knox II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	1	150%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0,0	0.00	0.08	-0.06	0.02	14	57%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Grimes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julius Randle	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,0,0.07,0.16,0.14,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.02	0.04	21	64%	0.27	7	-0.30	5	40%	-0.16
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	2	40%	-0.00	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Obi Toppin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.02	6	67%	0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Immanuel Quickley	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.08	0.03	17	44%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.4	28.3	14.5	27.2	2.5	33.7	136.7
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +5.3%

CHI +15.6%

CHI +18.8%

CHI +9.2%

CHI +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	NYK	NBA	CHI	NYK	NBA
this game	14.5	13.8	14.5	117.8	112.7	110.8
season	14.5	15.1		110.9	109.4
opponent	14.6	14.5		109.6	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.3	14.0	15.4	14.5	14.5
NYK	15.0	14.2	13.4	12.7	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alex Caruso	64	66	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.23	21	-17	38	13.7	16.0	-2.25	13.8	13.8	0.04
Zach LaVine	70	70	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.35	7	-3	10	15.6	12.1	3.58	14.2	13.0	1.26
Nikola Vucevic	66	66	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.31	7	-3	10	16.3	11.2	5.07	14.4	12.9	1.50
DeMar DeRozan	82	84	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.58	-3	7	-10	13.8	17.8	-4.00	13.5	15.2	-1.69
Lonzo Ball	71	72	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.46	-9	13	-22	14.7	14.1	0.63	14.0	13.5	0.52
Ayo Dosunmu	35	38	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.06	6	-2	8	13.3	15.2	-1.84	13.6	14.0	-0.41
Javonte Green	63	59	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.06	-3	7	-10	15.2	13.4	1.76	13.8	13.9	-0.17
Derrick Jones Jr.	32	34	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	7	-10	12.2	15.6	-3.45	13.4	14.1	-0.72
Troy Brown Jr.	22	21	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.06	-3	7	-10	13.8	14.7	-0.93	12.9	14.1	-1.17

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mitchell Robinson	59	61	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.06	7	-11	18	14.2	13.4	0.76	14.7	14.3	0.36
Quentin Grimes	14	12	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.11	4	-8	12	13.1	14.0	-0.88	13.0	14.8	-1.75
Kevin Knox II	8	8	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.07	2	-6	8	12.0	14.0	-1.99	14.2	14.6	-0.32
Obi Toppin	43	41	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.04	-6	2	-8	14.0	13.7	0.33	13.0	15.6	-2.52
Taj Gibson	6	6	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.06	-7	3	-10	14.8	13.8	1.06	21.5	14.1	7.39
Alec Burks	93	93	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.46	3	-7	10	13.4	18.8	-5.42	14.4	16.2	-1.85
Immanuel Quickley	81	80	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.32	-2	-2	0	13.7	14.2	-0.51	14.9	13.0	1.89
Evan Fournier	66	66	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.35	-5	1	-6	14.0	13.6	0.39	15.6	12.5	3.06
Julius Randle	81	81	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.49	-2	-2	0	14.2	12.6	1.59	14.9	13.0	1.86
Derrick Rose	59	57	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.28	-14	10	-24	14.0	13.6	0.40	13.0	16.5	-3.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.38,0.45,0.34,0.23,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.47,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.53,0.54,0.31,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 97, DET 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.29,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.43,0.47,0.37,0.31,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.29,0.33,0.73,0	90.4%
MIA 91, MIL 87	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.32,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.25,0.28,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.14,0.17,0.26,0.3,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.2,0.27,0.22,0.4,0.34,0.53,0.36,0.32,0.37,0	90.2%
GSW 106, PHX 104	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.2,0.21,0.29,0.37,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.15,0	89.7%