NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	103		Excitement	5.4 [648]		MVP	Danilo Gallinari (ATL): +21.8%
Atlanta Hawks	118		Comeback	2.6 [227]		LVP	Andre Iguodala (MIA): -9.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kendrick Nunn	0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.17	0.02	-0.01	13	75%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Trevor Ariza	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.00	0.01	8	81%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	-0.00	-0.02	10	60%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	13	48%	0.06	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.00	-0.02	0.05	13	58%	0.03	4	-0.10	7	100%	0.02
Bam Adebayo	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	12	53%	0.02	5	-0.10	6	67%	-0.01
Andre Iguodala	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	4	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.11	0.08	-0.03	11	65%	0.22	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Brandon Goodwin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.09	0.10	-0.01	10	71%	0.25	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.15	0.03	0.04	13	75%	0.16	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Huerter	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	-0.01	-0.03	9	61%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nathan Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	11	54%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
John Collins	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	14	67%	0.12	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Solomon Hill	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	6	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Onyeka Okongwu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	4	60%	0.02	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.0	32.0	14.8	24.3	2.5	30.2	129.1
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +31.4%

ATL +14.7%

ATL +7.8%

MIA -5.1%

ATL +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	14.6	16.1	14.4	108.4	126.9	111.3
season	14.6	14.7		109.3	112.8
opponent	14.5	14.9		111.4	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.4	14.1	17.0	13.0	14.6
ATL	15.6	14.2	16.5	18.3	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duncan Robinson	62	61	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.17	5	-20	25	13.7	16.2	-2.57	17.5	13.4	4.04
Kendrick Nunn	66	64	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.08	-4	-11	7	14.2	15.3	-1.12	16.9	14.2	2.68
Jimmy Butler	70	72	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.12	0	-15	15	13.8	16.7	-2.92	17.4	11.5	5.89
Trevor Ariza	65	61	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.08	-4	-11	7	14.3	15.2	-0.97	16.0	16.3	-0.30
Bam Adebayo	74	70	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.02	-6	-9	3	14.3	15.6	-1.29	16.3	15.6	0.69
Dewayne Dedmon	21	23	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.04	-9	-6	-3	15.6	14.3	1.29	15.6	16.3	-0.69
Tyler Herro	34	33	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.09	-20	5	-25	16.3	13.6	2.64	13.4	17.6	-4.22
Andre Iguodala	46	47	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.01	-17	2	-19	15.0	14.2	0.84	15.1	17.1	-1.94
Goran Dragic	37	34	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.03	-20	5	-25	16.6	13.3	3.27	13.4	17.7	-4.31

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Goodwin	40	43	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.06	19	-4	23	14.5	17.2	-2.70	16.2	13.2	2.91
Lou Williams	42	41	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.01	16	-1	17	13.9	17.9	-4.02	15.5	13.8	1.70
Danilo Gallinari	41	42	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.02	13	2	11	16.5	15.7	0.81	14.6	14.5	0.13
Nathan Knight	21	22	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.03	9	6	3	14.0	16.7	-2.76	16.9	13.9	2.99
John Collins	64	64	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.07	10	5	5	16.1	16.1	-0.03	14.5	14.8	-0.31
Solomon Hill	68	69	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	12	-9	17.5	12.2	5.31	14.0	16.0	-1.92
Kevin Huerter	71	73	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.00	6	9	-3	15.5	17.9	-2.33	14.1	16.0	-1.92
Onyeka Okongwu	56	57	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.15	-2	17	-19	16.6	15.4	1.22	14.1	15.3	-1.25
Bogdan Bogdanovic	62	64	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.03	1	14	-13	17.6	13.0	4.63	13.7	16.5	-2.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.88,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 89, POR 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.66,0.69,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.69,0.74,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.76,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1	93.9%
GSW 95, UTA 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.78,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%
POR 76, UTA 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.73,0.78,0.72,0.74,0.84,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.8%