NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	113		Excitement	7.9 [276]		MVP	Zion Williamson (NOP): +56.6%
New Orleans Pelicans	108		Comeback	16.1 [105]		LVP	Brandon Ingram (NOP): -25.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.12,0.01,0.01,0.19,0.42,0.41	0.17	0.27	0.03	30	62%	0.47	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.24	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.07	0.18	0.00	12	59%	0.27	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.15	0.05	0.02	17	71%	0.25	2	-0.08	1	0%	-0.02
Jamal Murray	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.04,0.04	0.09	-0.04	0.01	18	62%	0.10	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Zeke Nnaji	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Facundo Campazzo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	62%	0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
JaMychal Green	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Dozier	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	6	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zion Williamson	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.38,0.57,0.57,0.57	0.57	0.28	0.30	0.02	19	87%	0.64	3	-0.08	7	86%	0.04
Josh Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.03	-0.02	6	71%	0.10	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.00	11	59%	0.10	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Kira Lewis Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jaxson Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.03
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.15,-0.2	-0.20	-0.01	-0.19	0.01	13	54%	-0.09	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Ingram	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19,-0.26	-0.26	-0.07	-0.17	0.02	17	38%	-0.19	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	25.3	15.3	23.7	2.4	33.6	126.1
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +55.2%

NOP -23.7%

NOP -6.0%

DEN +22.2%

DEN +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	NOP	NBA	DEN	NOP	NBA
this game	16.9	14.8	14.4	124.2	118.7	111.3
season	15.0	14.0		116.0	112.4
opponent	14.4	14.4		112.5	112.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	18.2	19.7	15.2	15.0	16.9
NOP	13.7	17.2	15.4	13.2	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Barton	67	68	1.05	-0.55	1.60	0.38	23	-18	41	16.8	17.1	-0.31	15.6	12.5	3.10
Nikola Jokic	75	76	1.02	-0.52	1.54	0.35	23	-18	41	16.7	17.4	-0.70	15.7	10.3	5.34
Michael Porter Jr.	72	74	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.31	16	-11	27	16.8	17.1	-0.25	15.7	10.8	4.88
Jamal Murray	74	74	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.49	9	-4	13	17.2	15.5	1.63	14.9	14.3	0.61
Paul Millsap	56	55	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.39	3	2	1	17.3	16.1	1.21	14.9	14.6	0.30
Zeke Nnaji	8	7	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	0.10	-11	16	-27	19.0	16.7	2.35	12.0	15.0	-3.02
PJ Dozier	45	43	-0.34	0.84	-1.17	-0.10	-8	13	-21	16.4	17.3	-0.86	13.5	16.0	-2.47
Facundo Campazzo	25	25	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	-0.04	-13	18	-31	16.0	17.2	-1.18	13.0	15.5	-2.41

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaxson Hayes	15	16	0.52	-1.02	1.54	-0.01	18	-23	41	10.3	15.7	-5.34	17.4	16.7	0.70
Kira Lewis Jr.	32	34	0.35	-0.85	1.20	0.09	9	-14	23	13.8	15.3	-1.56	15.8	17.5	-1.70
Zion Williamson	75	74	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.39	13	-18	31	13.8	19.3	-5.49	17.2	15.3	1.92
Eric Bledsoe	63	60	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.05	-2	-3	1	15.5	13.1	2.38	17.9	14.9	2.96
Josh Hart	54	55	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.28	-5	0	-5	14.4	15.3	-0.90	15.8	18.4	-2.58
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	74	74	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.37	-6	1	-7	14.4	16.3	-1.85	17.0	16.3	0.69
Steven Adams	76	75	-1.02	0.52	-1.54	-0.35	-23	18	-41	15.7	10.3	5.34	16.7	17.4	-0.70
Brandon Ingram	66	67	-1.25	0.75	-2.01	-0.40	-29	24	-53	16.4	10.6	5.72	16.8	17.0	-0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.64,0.65,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.65,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.7,0.64,0.74,0.65,0.69,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.54,0.48,0.7,0.8,0.84,0.92,0.76,0.72,0.85,0.63,0.55,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 94, PHI 89	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.82,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.83,0.66,0.73,0.69,0.37,0.24,0.16,0	89.5%
SAS 107, SAC 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.83,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.8,0.78,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.63,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.77,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.83,0.8,0.74,0.81,0.54,0.14,0.04,0	89.0%
DET 114, TOR 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.68,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.82,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.67,0.61,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.69,0.65,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.27,0	88.7%