NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	113		Excitement	9.0 [148]		MVP	Brandon Ingram (NOP): +58.4%
Denver Nuggets	108		Comeback	2.2 [207]		LVP	Steven Adams (NOP): -24.8%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Ingram	0.58	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.23,0.58	0.07	0.53	0.01	23	58%	0.69	4	-0.11	6	100%	0.09
Zion Williamson	0.28	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.13	0.15	0.00	13	75%	0.40	4	-0.13	14	79%	0.00
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.03	-0.00	15	65%	0.16	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Josh Hart	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.06	0.01	9	60%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Eric Bledsoe	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.04	0.07	-0.00	8	37%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kira Lewis Jr.	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaxson Hayes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Nicolo Melli	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.11	-0.13	0.01	4	29%	-0.08	3	-0.17	6	33%	-0.08

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.22,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.47,0.45	0.45	0.12	0.33	0.00	19	76%	0.60	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1	0.10	0.13	-0.03	0.00	16	68%	0.11	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
JaMychal Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.04	0.04	14	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
PJ Dozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	64%	0.07	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	2	67%	0.06	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	4	60%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.06
Will Barton	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.09	-0.01	19	42%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Facundo Campazzo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.4	24.8	14.7	21.3	2.4	38.4	131.4
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +12.6%

NOP +46.6%

NOP +1.0%

DEN -7.8%

DEN -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	DEN	NBA	NOP	DEN	NBA
this game	15.3	14.2	14.4	115.3	111.3	111.3
season	14.0	15.0		112.4	116.0
opponent	14.4	14.4		112.3	112.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	14.5	14.1	17.3	15.5	15.3
DEN	13.2	14.7	13.3	15.8	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Hart	60	59	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.31	12	-7	19	14.5	16.6	-2.10	14.6	13.7	0.95
Brandon Ingram	74	72	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.49	3	2	1	15.5	14.7	0.83	14.1	14.7	-0.65
Kira Lewis Jr.	35	33	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.06	11	-6	17	14.7	15.6	-0.86	14.2	14.2	0.01
Zion Williamson	72	71	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.36	-3	8	-11	14.7	16.9	-2.21	14.6	13.2	1.48
Jaxson Hayes	25	24	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.03	8	-3	11	14.4	15.6	-1.15	14.9	14.0	0.90
Steven Adams	73	73	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.38	-5	10	-15	15.6	14.4	1.15	14.0	14.9	-0.90
Nicolo Melli	26	26	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.01	8	-3	11	16.9	14.7	2.21	13.2	14.6	-1.48
Eric Bledsoe	63	64	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.29	-6	11	-17	15.6	14.7	0.86	14.2	14.2	-0.01
Nickeil Alexander-Walker	62	63	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	-0.16	-3	8	-11	15.8	14.4	1.48	14.1	14.5	-0.45

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
PJ Dozier	46	47	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.14	-3	-2	-1	13.8	14.6	-0.86	14.6	16.0	-1.43
Michael Porter Jr.	72	71	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.28	4	-9	13	14.1	14.6	-0.54	15.6	14.5	1.12
Paul Millsap	58	60	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.29	3	-8	11	14.6	13.8	0.78	16.1	14.0	2.07
JaMychal Green	36	36	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.04	-7	2	-9	14.0	14.4	-0.33	13.5	16.3	-2.79
Nikola Jokic	69	70	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.35	3	-8	11	14.1	14.7	-0.62	16.1	13.4	2.66
Will Barton	73	72	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.36	3	-8	11	14.2	14.5	-0.35	15.7	14.2	1.50
Isaiah Hartenstein	22	22	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	5	-15	15.2	13.9	1.28	13.5	15.8	-2.26
Facundo Campazzo	41	41	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.02	-11	6	-17	13.8	14.6	-0.75	15.2	15.4	-0.22
Jamal Murray	68	71	-0.76	0.26	-1.01	-0.55	-7	2	-9	14.7	13.0	1.72	15.2	15.7	-0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.33,0.42,0.21,0.39,0.67,0.68,0.54,0.45,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 94, CHI 90	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.47,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.38,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.46,0.68,0.46,0.45,0.28,0	91.6%
SEA 104, GSW 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.47,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.71,0.56,0.15,0	90.4%
NYK 107, HOU 102	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.25,0.38,0.48,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.48,0.32,0.31,0.47,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.31,0.42,0	90.2%