NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	102		Excitement	8.3 [211]		MVP	Terrence Ross (ORL): +42.1%
Orlando Magic	97		Comeback	4.5 [417]		LVP	Dwayne Bacon (ORL): -22.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.09	0.21	-0.01	16	65%	0.36	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Jimmy Butler	0.25	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.25	0.15	0.13	0.02	17	66%	0.29	1	-0.04	10	90%	0.06
Duncan Robinson	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.05	-0.04	14	50%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.01	0.08	-0.00	3	50%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.12,0.02,0.06,0.05	0.13	-0.06	0.02	9	86%	0.23	2	-0.18	3	100%	0.02
KZ Okpala	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Silva	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Precious Achiuwa	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Nunn	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	9	17%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.16	-0.06	-0.01	11	14%	-0.14	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.39,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.42	0.42	0.17	0.22	-0.04	19	74%	0.45	3	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.11,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.02	-0.00	27	67%	0.35	7	-0.22	3	67%	-0.01
Chuma Okeke	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	37%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khem Birch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Bamba	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Chasson Randle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	2	57%	0.02	2	-0.10	3	67%	-0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Michael Carter-Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.04	0.03	8	43%	-0.01	4	-0.14	5	60%	-0.03
Dwayne Bacon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.15,-0.17,-0.22	-0.22	-0.03	-0.18	0.01	9	41%	-0.18	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.4	25.4	15.0	26.0	1.8	31.2	126.7
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +17.9%

MIA +13.2%

ORL -2.3%

MIA +25.7%

ORL -4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	13.8	15.5	14.4	103.0	99.0	111.3
season	14.6	14.9		109.3	103.9
opponent	14.0	14.9		113.4	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.9	13.4	15.0	13.9	13.8
ORL	16.6	15.4	15.6	14.4	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	73	73	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.30	13	-8	21	14.0	13.3	0.65	16.1	13.6	2.44
Kelly Olynyk	68	68	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.29	12	-7	19	14.3	12.6	1.76	15.9	14.5	1.38
Tyler Herro	60	61	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.39	7	-2	9	13.0	15.0	-2.00	15.3	15.8	-0.52
Andre Iguodala	54	54	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.40	3	2	1	13.1	14.7	-1.61	15.3	15.6	-0.32
Duncan Robinson	75	73	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.40	-3	8	-11	13.9	13.6	0.27	15.1	16.4	-1.26
Goran Dragic	51	50	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.01	1	4	-3	13.7	13.9	-0.17	14.9	16.1	-1.18
KZ Okpala	45	44	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.05	2	3	-1	14.7	13.1	1.61	15.6	15.3	0.32
Precious Achiuwa	27	26	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	6	-7	12.3	14.4	-2.10	14.5	15.8	-1.31
Chris Silva	4	4	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.08	-6	11	-17	14.7	13.7	1.00	14.5	15.5	-1.00
Kendrick Nunn	38	37	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.04	-3	8	-11	14.7	13.2	1.45	16.0	15.1	0.83

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chuma Okeke	42	42	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.04	8	-13	21	15.6	15.3	0.28	14.0	13.6	0.45
Mo Bamba	21	22	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.04	5	-10	15	15.0	15.6	-0.65	12.6	14.1	-1.54
Khem Birch	24	25	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.00	1	-6	7	15.7	15.4	0.39	12.8	14.1	-1.27
Gary Clark	20	20	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-8	11	15.4	15.5	-0.07	13.5	13.8	-0.30
Chasson Randle	50	49	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.12	0	-5	5	15.2	15.7	-0.45	12.9	14.6	-1.72
Terrence Ross	71	71	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.26	-8	3	-11	15.5	15.4	0.02	12.8	16.4	-3.58
Al-Farouq Aminu	54	54	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.27	-9	4	-13	15.4	15.6	-0.24	14.3	13.2	1.16
Dwayne Bacon	62	64	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.48	-2	-3	1	15.7	15.0	0.73	14.7	12.1	2.59
Michael Carter-Williams	69	71	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.16	-13	8	-21	15.3	15.9	-0.62	14.4	12.2	2.24
Nikola Vucevic	77	77	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.40	-10	5	-15	15.6	15.0	0.65	14.1	12.6	1.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.31,0.37,0.35,0.26,0.32,0.43,0.4,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.71,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.64,0.6,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.09,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 106, TOR 100	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.81,0.78,0.71,0.75,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.22,0.03,0,0	92.4%
POR 87, PHX 81	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.34,0.41,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.82,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.47,0.36,0.09,0,0	92.4%
DET 92, MEM 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.61,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.57,0.77,0.53,0.65,0.61,0.54,0.37,0.1,0.04,0	91.9%