NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	104		Excitement	9.3 [112]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +26.8%
Miami Heat	105		Comeback	2.8 [489]		LVP	De'Aaron Fox (SAC): -23.8%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Bagley III	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.18	0.05	0.01	8	106%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.00	8	65%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Buddy Hield	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.05	0.02	15	60%	0.18	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	90%	0.11	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Kyle Guy	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	6	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrese Haliburton	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	10	50%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Richaun Holmes	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.21	0.01	-0.21	0.00	4	50%	-0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	-0.24	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.1,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.2,0.03,-0.24	-0.04	-0.18	0.01	26	50%	-0.09	5	-0.15	8	37%	-0.09

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.27	0.27	0.10	0.18	0.01	19	56%	0.27	0	0.00	16	87%	0.02
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	-0.01	9	78%	0.18	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.07	0.00	4	87%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Precious Achiuwa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.00	4	75%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	9	61%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
KZ Okpala	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.03	-0.10	-0.01	12	54%	-0.01	4	-0.11	4	75%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	0.01	-0.14	0.01	11	69%	0.15	5	-0.28	4	100%	0.03
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.12	-0.08	0.00	5	8%	-0.13	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.7	31.5	15.0	26.5	2.0	32.0	132.0
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +29.9%

MIA +29.7%

MIA +6.3%

SAC -21.0%

MIA +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIA	NBA	SAC	MIA	NBA
this game	16.0	14.6	14.4	109.5	112.9	111.3
season	14.0	14.6		112.2	109.3
opponent	14.9	14.4		110.4	115.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.8	17.9	15.7	15.8	16.0
MIA	13.4	13.4	16.3	15.5	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Guy	31	31	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.19	5	-6	11	15.4	16.3	-0.96	14.3	14.8	-0.45
Marvin Bagley III	50	49	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.06	-2	1	-3	16.3	15.6	0.68	15.2	14.0	1.23
Harrison Barnes	49	48	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.05	-5	4	-9	16.3	15.7	0.63	14.1	15.2	-1.03
Hassan Whiteside	42	42	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.05	-6	5	-11	15.5	16.4	-0.94	12.8	16.1	-3.26
Cory Joseph	31	29	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.07	-11	10	-21	15.3	16.3	-1.05	13.1	15.3	-2.21
Richaun Holmes	53	51	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.42	5	-6	11	16.4	15.5	0.94	16.1	12.8	3.26
Buddy Hield	73	72	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.44	4	-5	9	15.7	17.1	-1.48	14.9	13.7	1.17
Tyrese Haliburton	62	60	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-1	1	15.9	16.2	-0.28	14.1	15.5	-1.38
De'Aaron Fox	61	60	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.41	-1	0	-1	16.8	14.6	2.15	15.3	13.5	1.81

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duncan Robinson	66	70	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.45	6	-5	11	14.8	14.1	0.67	16.1	15.8	0.22
Andre Iguodala	49	49	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.31	8	-7	15	15.1	14.1	0.97	16.8	15.2	1.64
Bam Adebayo	69	71	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.47	-1	2	-3	14.7	14.4	0.34	15.9	16.4	-0.50
Tyler Herro	78	78	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.35	1	0	1	14.7	14.0	0.74	15.9	16.4	-0.43
Kelly Olynyk	50	50	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.14	14	-13	27	14.5	14.7	-0.18	16.3	15.6	0.68
Jimmy Butler	67	68	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.46	-7	8	-15	14.2	15.7	-1.43	15.5	17.3	-1.76
Max Strus	25	26	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.19	-3	4	-7	15.7	14.2	1.44	16.0	16.0	0.05
Gabe Vincent	21	21	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.01	2	-1	3	14.1	14.8	-0.68	16.3	15.9	0.37
Precious Achiuwa	25	25	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	2	-3	13.8	14.9	-1.13	15.9	16.0	-0.11
KZ Okpala	15	17	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.19	-14	15	-29	13.7	14.8	-1.14	15.1	16.2	-1.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.28,0.28,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.78,0.87,0.88,0.76,0.63,0.59,0.76,0.67,0.81,0.78,0.71,0.37,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 96, UTA 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.71,0.62,0.66,0.78,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.57,0.72,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.69,0.84,0.68,0.58,1	90.6%
IND 82, ORL 84	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.76,0.85,0.83,0.78,0.87,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.74,0.69,0.8,0.82,0.76,0.71,0.91,0.73,1	90.4%
MIA 94, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.89,0.79,0.84,0.77,1	90.3%