NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	118		Excitement	11.7 [22]		MVP	Terrence Ross (ORL): +31.7%
Indiana Pacers	120		Comeback	11.9 [134]		LVP	Aaron Gordon (ORL): -32.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.16,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.04	0.28	0.01	9	55%	0.32	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Dwayne Bacon	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.08	-0.00	12	67%	0.19	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Ennis III	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	7	64%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cole Anthony	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.01	7	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Gary Clark	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,0.23,0.23,0.14,-0.05	0.15	-0.19	0.02	14	65%	-0.02	1	-0.03	12	50%	-0.11
Khem Birch	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	6	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,0.07,-0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.22,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	29	41%	-0.00	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.33	0,0,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33	0.01	-0.32	0.02	10	77%	0.15	6	-0.48	2	50%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.02,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,0.31	0.31	0.02	0.32	0.03	18	56%	0.48	4	-0.16	5	100%	0.03
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21	0.21	0.02	0.21	0.01	13	60%	0.31	3	-0.10	4	75%	-0.06
Myles Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.14	0.07	0.01	14	76%	0.27	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Jeremy Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.15,0.23,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	-0.01	-0.01	14	61%	0.12	0	0.00	8	87%	0.04
Aaron Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	5	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	7	43%	0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.03	0.02	6	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goga Bitadze	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Edmond Sumner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.04	-0.09	0.02	13	50%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.1	1.8	26.0	14.7	26.7	1.0	32.0	1.8	18.1	147.1
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	2.3	15.8	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +45.4%

IND +6.5%

ORL -26.5%

IND +33.8%

ORL -9.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	IND	NBA	ORL	IND	NBA
this game	16.5	14.2	14.4	113.5	116.5	111.3
season	14.9	13.6		103.9	111.5
opponent	14.4	14.0		111.2	113.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ORL	15.8	15.9	16.0	18.6	15.8	16.5
IND	13.0	16.1	15.3	12.2	15.8	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Ennis III	55	55	0.13	-0.63	0.75	0.13	0	-2	2	16.6	16.3	0.33	14.4	14.1	0.28
Gary Clark	19	18	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.07	5	-7	12	16.2	16.6	-0.40	14.8	14.1	0.66
Khem Birch	52	53	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.07	-3	1	-4	16.2	16.7	-0.50	14.9	13.5	1.46
Dwayne Bacon	34	33	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	3	-8	17.0	16.2	0.82	13.8	14.4	-0.61
Evan Fournier	70	70	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.37	3	-5	8	16.2	17.0	-0.82	14.4	13.8	0.61
Terrence Ross	63	63	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.54	6	-8	14	16.8	16.0	0.79	14.2	14.3	-0.07
Aaron Gordon	75	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.56	6	-8	14	16.6	16.2	0.38	13.6	15.7	-2.07
Nikola Vucevic	81	79	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.30	-10	8	-18	16.5	16.3	0.28	14.3	14.1	0.20
Cole Anthony	71	71	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.49	-12	10	-22	16.2	17.2	-0.98	14.1	14.6	-0.57

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug McDermott	72	73	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.71	6	-4	10	14.2	14.2	0.06	15.9	17.8	-1.93
T.J. McConnell	59	59	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.66	0	2	-2	15.0	13.2	1.87	16.5	16.5	-0.01
Malcolm Brogdon	73	75	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.28	8	-6	14	14.2	14.2	0.05	16.2	17.3	-1.10
Domantas Sabonis	87	89	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.34	2	0	2	14.5	12.9	1.53	16.3	17.7	-1.46
Jeremy Lamb	54	54	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.59	-7	9	-16	14.0	14.5	-0.45	17.2	15.7	1.58
Justin Holiday	50	51	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.10	10	-8	18	12.9	15.5	-2.55	16.7	16.2	0.48
Myles Turner	83	83	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.29	8	-6	14	14.0	15.2	-1.20	16.9	14.9	1.97
Goga Bitadze	1	0	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	5	-8	0.0	14.4	-14.37	0.0	16.5	-16.48
Edmond Sumner	4	4	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.03	-5	7	-12	21.2	13.9	7.30	11.0	16.7	-5.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.41,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.7,0.72,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.68,0.74,0.65,0.39,0.76,0.64,0.76,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.32,0.28,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 120, MEM 125	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.58,0.69,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.84,0.46,0.31,0.45,0.22,0.42,1	87.5%
DET 92, TOR 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.55,0.66,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.7,0.6,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.72,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.22,0.15,1	87.0%
IND 110, MIN 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.73,0.62,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.54,0.68,0.55,0.43,0.58,1	86.7%