NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	115		Excitement	8.2 [226]		MVP	Clint Capela (ATL): +50.9%
Atlanta Hawks	123		Comeback	191.3 [10]		LVP	Tony Snell (ATL): -12.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Blake Griffin	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.10	0.10	-0.02	10	68%	0.22	1	-0.00	5	100%	0.05
Jerami Grant	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.3,0.13,0.13	0.14	-0.01	0.01	22	63%	0.15	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.04
Wayne Ellington	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.02	-0.02	11	64%	0.16	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Svi Mykhailiuk	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Delon Wright	0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	7	47%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jahlil Okafor	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sekou Doumbouya	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	-0.02	15	47%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	11	45%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Josh Jackson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	7	41%	0.02	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Isaiah Stewart	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Saddiq Bey	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clint Capela	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.5,0.51	0.51	0.12	0.42	0.03	18	56%	0.51	0	0.00	12	58%	-0.04
John Collins	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.12	0.03	24	58%	0.23	3	-0.06	5	80%	-0.01
Kevin Huerter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.01	0.03	12	65%	0.07	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Trae Young	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	-0.05	-0.01	26	54%	0.17	2	-0.12	19	68%	-0.00
Solomon Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.04	0.01	8	37%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Onyeka Okongwu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nathan Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Goodwin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.02	2	50%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	4	0%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	27.5	15.3	27.4	2.5	36.3	2.5	15.3	152.5
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	2.3	15.8	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +19.4%

ATL +7.9%

ATL +40.1%

DET -13.5%

DET -3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ATL	NBA	DET	ATL	NBA
this game	14.5	14.7	14.4	105.5	112.8	111.3
season	15.0	14.7		107.0	112.8
opponent	14.5	14.2		111.4	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DET	13.5	14.5	14.8	16.3	11.6	14.5
ATL	15.8	16.9	13.4	12.6	15.6	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Delon Wright	51	49	0.38	-0.88	1.26	0.20	6	-14	20	15.3	13.7	1.63	15.5	14.1	1.39
Isaiah Stewart	33	34	0.27	-0.77	1.05	-0.02	10	-18	28	13.5	14.9	-1.37	14.7	14.7	-0.04
Sekou Doumbouya	11	10	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-12	16	16.0	14.3	1.70	15.0	14.7	0.32
Saddiq Bey	16	16	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.02	3	-11	14	14.6	14.5	0.11	15.7	14.5	1.15
Svi Mykhailiuk	23	27	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.01	2	-10	12	15.7	14.1	1.56	13.1	15.2	-2.17
Josh Jackson	40	40	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.07	1	-9	10	15.0	14.2	0.80	14.9	14.6	0.35
Mason Plumlee	56	55	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.13	-16	8	-24	15.1	13.8	1.31	14.3	15.1	-0.77
Jahlil Okafor	19	17	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-6	4	14.5	14.5	0.07	17.3	14.2	3.07
Jerami Grant	86	86	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.32	-10	2	-12	13.7	17.3	-3.54	14.6	15.0	-0.32
Wayne Ellington	70	69	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.35	-11	3	-14	14.0	15.2	-1.19	14.6	14.9	-0.35
Derrick Rose	60	63	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.26	-14	6	-20	13.8	15.3	-1.45	13.9	15.8	-1.86
Blake Griffin	80	79	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.31	-13	5	-18	14.7	13.9	0.78	15.0	14.0	0.97

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clint Capela	80	79	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.33	17	-9	26	14.6	14.9	-0.31	14.8	13.6	1.24
Kevin Huerter	82	84	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.35	14	-6	20	14.4	15.6	-1.13	14.3	15.2	-0.90
John Collins	89	88	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.23	18	-10	28	14.8	14.1	0.68	14.4	14.6	-0.19
Trae Young	91	91	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.27	7	1	6	14.5	15.9	-1.42	14.3	15.2	-0.90
Solomon Hill	82	81	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.40	2	6	-4	14.8	14.4	0.40	14.1	15.6	-1.49
Rajon Rondo	24	23	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.09	4	4	0	15.7	14.4	1.28	16.5	13.9	2.60
Nathan Knight	10	11	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	12	-16	15.0	14.7	0.32	16.0	14.3	1.70
Tony Snell	36	35	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.18	0	8	-8	14.5	14.8	-0.27	14.5	14.5	-0.02
Brandon Goodwin	23	24	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.01	-7	15	-22	14.8	14.7	0.15	14.3	14.5	-0.23
Onyeka Okongwu	28	29	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.01	-11	19	-30	15.0	14.6	0.40	13.7	14.7	-1.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.36,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.18,0.13,0.22,0.16,0.11,0.14,0.28,0.34,0.22,0.15,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.46,0.19,0.29,0.43,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 103, MIA 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.32,0.41,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.2,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.13,0.18,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.78,0.99,1	89.9%
TOR 120, ATL 127	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.3,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.09,0.03,0.1,0.04,0.07,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.09,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.09,0.54,0.31,0.28,0.55,0.58,1	88.6%
POR 113, HOU 118	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.14,0.09,0.15,0.09,0.15,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.19,0.28,0.23,0.42,0.54,0.31,0.39,0.24,0.85,1	87.8%