NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	118		Excitement	9.2 [156]		MVP	De'Aaron Fox (SAC): +71.5%
Sacramento Kings	113		Comeback	2.1 [706]		LVP	Harrison Barnes (SAC): -11.7%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pascal Siakam	0.60	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.14,0.23,0.6	0.09	0.51	0.00	15	61%	0.64	1	-0.04	8	87%	0.09
Kyle Lowry	0.53	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.33,0.3,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53	0.22	0.29	-0.02	15	86%	0.59	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Norman Powell	0.35	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.18	0.18	0.01	21	67%	0.38	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
OG Anunoby	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	7	67%	0.13	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.05
Serge Ibaka	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.01	0.03	10	62%	0.07	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.04
Marc Gasol	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	5	30%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick McCaw	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Thomas	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Terence Davis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.18,0.35,0.51,0.72	0.72	0.13	0.58	0.00	16	67%	0.77	3	-0.06	10	100%	0.14
Alex Len	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.11	0.06	0.00	9	71%	0.17	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	11	62%	0.12	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Richaun Holmes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	4	67%	0.10	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.06
Nemanja Bjelica	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	12	54%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.02	0.02	-0.06	0.06	-0.01	10	43%	0.11	3	-0.09	1	0%	-0.01
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.03	0.02	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Harry Giles III	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Buddy Hield	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	-0.01	12	46%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.11	-0.00	10	41%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.5	26.4	15.4	27.5	2.5	42.2	143.8
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +77.6%

SAC -26.9%

SAC -13.6%

TOR +5.9%

TOR +7.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	SAC	NBA	TOR	SAC	NBA
this game	13.5	15.3	14.2	119.2	111.9	109.6
season	14.0	14.3		109.9	109.0
opponent	14.5	14.5		110.9	104.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	12.6	15.0	11.9	14.7	13.5
SAC	16.2	16.9	14.8	13.6	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Norman Powell	87	89	0.91	-0.41	1.31	0.41	17	-12	29	13.3	14.9	-1.64	15.5	13.8	1.67
Kyle Lowry	75	76	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.29	16	-11	27	13.2	14.2	-0.97	15.6	14.4	1.21
Serge Ibaka	73	75	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.30	15	-10	25	13.5	13.5	0.02	15.5	14.7	0.88
Pascal Siakam	79	80	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.33	10	-5	15	12.8	16.1	-3.29	15.7	13.9	1.83
OG Anunoby	81	83	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.29	10	-5	15	13.3	14.2	-0.91	15.3	15.3	0.04
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	11	12	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.00	-3	8	-11	15.7	13.2	2.53	14.9	15.4	-0.44
Marc Gasol	32	32	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.01	-5	10	-15	13.8	13.3	0.50	15.7	15.1	0.60
Terence Davis	12	12	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.06	-10	15	-25	14.3	13.4	0.98	14.4	15.4	-1.01
Matt Thomas	10	10	-0.28	0.79	-1.07	-0.05	-8	13	-21	13.3	13.5	-0.19	12.7	15.6	-2.89
Patrick McCaw	35	36	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	0.15	-17	22	-39	15.1	12.6	2.49	13.6	16.2	-2.59

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cory Joseph	37	37	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.33	18	-23	41	14.3	15.9	-1.55	13.8	13.3	0.45
Buddy Hield	46	47	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.07	7	-12	19	16.2	14.5	1.67	13.9	13.1	0.84
Alex Len	32	29	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.08	5	-10	15	14.3	15.8	-1.41	14.6	13.0	1.62
Richaun Holmes	39	40	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.44	16	-21	37	14.8	15.6	-0.75	14.1	13.1	1.05
Nemanja Bjelica	63	62	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	0	-5	15.2	15.4	-0.18	13.8	13.0	0.80
Kent Bazemore	57	55	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.49	5	-10	15	14.3	16.6	-2.23	13.6	13.4	0.20
Harrison Barnes	72	71	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.33	-3	-2	-1	15.4	15.0	0.48	12.9	14.9	-1.93
Bogdan Bogdanovic	64	61	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.08	-17	12	-29	15.6	14.9	0.70	13.5	13.4	0.04
Harry Giles III	30	30	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	0.17	-26	21	-47	16.9	14.6	2.31	11.5	14.3	-2.79
De'Aaron Fox	65	63	-0.88	0.38	-1.26	-0.15	-25	20	-45	15.7	14.5	1.21	13.2	13.9	-0.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.4,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.3,0.19,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.39,0.25,0.34,0.43,0.62,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.22,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 103, MIA 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.5,0.57,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.26,0.24,0.4,0.55,0.37,0.15,0.08,0	91.6%
DAL 114, LAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.35,0.42,0.46,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.56,0.62,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.45,0.28,0.24,0.17,0	91.5%
SAS 111, PHX 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.67,0.64,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.35,0.31,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.53,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.44,0.16,0	90.9%