NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	104		Excitement	7.7 [332]		MVP	P.J. Washington (CHA): +26.9%
Charlotte Hornets	103		Comeback	5.2 [407]		LVP	Joe Chealey (CHA): -10.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryn Forbes	0.25	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.12	0.17	0.03	7	75%	0.28	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Dejounte Murray	0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.17	0.12	0.05	-0.01	14	75%	0.22	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07	0.00	0.08	0.01	10	45%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Drew Eubanks	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	1	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.05	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	11	48%	0.06	1	-0.01	3	67%	0.00
Lonnie Walker IV	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.04	0.06	-0.01	6	42%	0.09	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Keldon Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	4	87%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.01	10	54%	0.04	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Derrick White	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.03	-0.01	9	60%	0.07	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Trey Lyles	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	35%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Washington	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.08,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.07	0.20	0.00	13	63%	0.31	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.05
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	6	53%	0.06	2	-0.04	3	0%	-0.05
Jalen McDaniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	7	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Miles Bridges	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	14	48%	0.00	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Cody Martin	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.02	8	81%	0.10	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Willy Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	4	67%	0.05	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.06	0.02	9	67%	0.03	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,-0.06	-0.06	0.04	-0.05	0.06	18	53%	0.20	1	-0.27	2	100%	0.02
Joe Chealey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	4	20%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	2.0	23.0	14.4	26.4	1.8	24.3	119.3
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA -1.4%

SAS +20.5%

CHA -20.1%

SAS +40.0%

SAS +11.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHA	NBA	SAS	CHA	NBA
this game	14.8	16.7	14.2	113.0	113.2	109.6
season	14.1	15.1		110.8	105.4
opponent	14.7	14.2		112.4	112.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.3	14.1	12.8	18.6	14.8
CHA	17.0	17.2	15.5	17.4	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dejounte Murray	55	53	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.43	3	-2	5	14.9	14.6	0.28	16.8	16.6	0.21
Lonnie Walker IV	43	42	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.06	13	-12	25	14.5	15.0	-0.51	18.0	15.7	2.28
Bryn Forbes	52	49	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.59	-5	6	-11	15.2	14.1	1.13	16.2	17.4	-1.17
Trey Lyles	64	63	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.53	-5	6	-11	14.9	14.5	0.38	16.2	18.0	-1.79
DeMar DeRozan	67	66	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.47	-3	4	-7	15.6	12.5	3.08	16.3	17.8	-1.43
Rudy Gay	48	48	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.26	-3	4	-7	15.5	14.0	1.46	16.7	16.7	0.05
Keldon Johnson	30	30	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.00	5	-4	9	12.4	15.9	-3.45	18.0	16.1	1.95
Patty Mills	40	42	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.14	6	-5	11	14.1	15.2	-1.13	17.4	16.2	1.17
Drew Eubanks	24	24	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.12	-4	5	-9	14.1	15.0	-0.86	15.4	17.2	-1.78
Derrick White	37	38	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.04	-2	3	-5	14.6	14.9	-0.28	16.6	16.8	-0.21

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Willy Hernangomez	36	35	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	3	-7	17.1	16.5	0.64	13.3	15.6	-2.33
Joe Chealey	25	25	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	3	-7	17.8	16.3	1.43	12.5	15.6	-3.08
Caleb Martin	50	50	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.37	8	-9	17	16.3	17.2	-0.86	15.4	14.0	1.36
Jalen McDaniels	49	50	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.31	2	-3	5	17.6	15.7	1.83	15.5	13.9	1.62
P.J. Washington	64	64	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.37	4	-5	9	16.7	16.9	-0.18	15.4	13.2	2.22
Cody Zeller	38	40	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.28	-1	0	-1	16.6	16.8	-0.30	13.6	15.7	-2.05
Terry Rozier	66	67	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.47	3	-4	7	16.3	17.8	-1.43	15.6	12.5	3.08
Miles Bridges	60	62	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.38	0	-1	1	16.5	17.1	-0.51	15.4	13.5	1.82
Cody Martin	67	67	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.17	-13	12	-25	16.5	17.4	-0.88	14.0	16.8	-2.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.76,0.76,0.84,0.81,0.76,0.74,0.81,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.7,0.63,0.48,0.46,0.34,0.38,0.48,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.17,0.24,0.15,0.04,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 78, IND 71	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.74,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.57,0.58,0.41,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.16,0.09,0.03,0	92.1%
POR 100, DEN 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.79,0.83,0.77,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.57,0.74,0.61,0.54,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.1,0.11,0.16,0.08,0	92.0%
PHX 95, UTA 83	0.5,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.74,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.76,0.69,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.19,0.1,0.04,0.02,0,0,0	91.9%