NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	129		Excitement	9.3 [140]		MVP	Bradley Beal (WAS): +55.2%
Miami Heat	134		Comeback	9.8 [230]		LVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): -14.0%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0.55	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.35,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.56,0.56,0.55	0.23	0.33	0.01	24	73%	0.59	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Davis Bertans	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.03	0.03	18	59%	0.15	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.02
Thomas Bryant	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.02	11	58%	0.11	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Ish Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	58%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton II	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Brown Jr.	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Johnathan Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaac Bonga	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jordan McRae	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0.02	15	44%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.09	-0.01	8	48%	-0.06	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.4	0.40	0.23	0.17	-0.00	14	83%	0.40	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.05,0.05,0.23,0.23,0.32	0.32	0.09	0.25	0.02	10	63%	0.44	2	-0.12	18	89%	0.10
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.08	-0.00	12	71%	0.27	4	-0.11	7	100%	0.04
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.02	0.00	7	87%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.00	0.00	7	81%	0.10	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	6	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.22,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.04	0.06	-0.01	8	44%	0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Nunn	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.00	10	64%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Meyers Leonard	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	8	35%	-0.08	4	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.7	1.7	31.5	15.3	26.6	2.4	26.6	2.7	20.6	153.2
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +16.1%

MIA +40.7%

MIA +0.7%

WAS -14.1%

MIA +6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	14.0	14.7	14.2	115.2	121.8	109.6
season	13.7	14.7		109.8	111.7
opponent	14.5	14.0		108.9	114.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
WAS	14.7	13.4	14.0	13.8	14.2	14.0
MIA	14.1	12.3	14.8	18.3	14.4	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton II	31	32	0.22	-0.72	0.95	-0.01	8	-13	21	14.0	14.0	0.08	14.6	14.7	-0.08
Isaac Bonga	45	44	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.09	-1	-4	3	13.4	14.4	-0.96	13.8	15.3	-1.48
Johnathan Williams	4	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.06	2	-7	9	7.0	14.2	-7.23	17.7	14.6	3.07
Isaiah Thomas	54	52	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	-3	1	14.1	13.8	0.34	14.1	15.2	-1.11
Thomas Bryant	35	35	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.14	1	-6	7	13.6	14.2	-0.58	15.1	14.5	0.68
Bradley Beal	79	79	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.31	4	-9	13	14.4	13.1	1.29	14.7	14.5	0.23
Ian Mahinmi	73	72	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.24	-5	0	-5	14.5	12.9	1.65	14.3	15.3	-1.01
Ish Smith	57	56	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.43	-2	-3	1	13.9	14.0	-0.12	15.7	13.6	2.03
Davis Bertans	65	65	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.36	-5	0	-5	14.0	13.9	0.17	15.0	14.2	0.89
Troy Brown Jr.	46	44	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.05	-16	11	-27	14.1	13.9	0.27	13.0	15.8	-2.80
Jordan McRae	71	68	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.27	-9	4	-13	13.6	14.6	-0.93	15.6	13.2	2.34

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goran Dragic	60	63	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.51	13	-8	21	14.8	14.6	0.19	14.3	13.6	0.64
Tyler Herro	68	71	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.30	11	-6	17	14.4	15.1	-0.67	14.0	13.9	0.15
Derrick Jones Jr.	65	65	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.29	9	-4	13	13.0	17.2	-4.19	13.2	15.1	-1.88
James Johnson	60	61	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.32	7	-2	9	14.3	15.1	-0.80	14.1	13.8	0.24
Jimmy Butler	69	71	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.27	1	4	-3	15.4	13.5	1.86	13.9	14.2	-0.31
Kelly Olynyk	44	44	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.07	6	-1	7	13.9	15.2	-1.36	14.6	13.5	1.09
Bam Adebayo	68	70	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.33	-4	9	-13	15.8	12.9	2.87	14.0	13.9	0.15
Duncan Robinson	33	33	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	10	-15	15.2	14.5	0.67	14.3	13.8	0.51
Meyers Leonard	29	28	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.09	-9	14	-23	15.0	14.6	0.43	14.1	13.9	0.18
Kendrick Nunn	54	54	-0.57	1.07	-1.64	-0.45	-4	9	-13	15.3	14.1	1.24	13.6	14.3	-0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.88,0.85,0.76,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.85,0.92,0.77,0.83,0.94,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.45,0.09,0.46,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 83, PHX 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.69,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.83,0.8,0.78,0.61,0.71,0.66,0.28,0.46,0.45,0.64,0.85,0.85,1	89.4%
MEM 83, CLE 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.49,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.82,0.77,0.76,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.68,0.54,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.94,0.83,0.55,0.55,0.16,0.27,0.54,0.75,0.72,0.86,0.92,1	87.4%
MEM 116, NOH 118	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.59,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.73,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.78,0.9,0.91,0.73,0.76,0.84,0.84,0.27,0.54,0.81,0.57,0.86,0.92,1	87.1%