NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	113		Excitement	8.1 [262]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): +34.7%
Brooklyn Nets	117		Comeback	24.9 [39]		LVP	Derrick Jones Jr. (MIA): -10.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0.35	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.35	0.22	0.14	0.01	18	73%	0.38	1	-0.03	9	100%	0.04
Bam Adebayo	0.26	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.26,0.26	0.15	0.11	0.00	13	79%	0.28	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.08	-0.01	4	75%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02	0.04	-0.03	-0.00	7	57%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Nunn	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	10	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	13	50%	0.07	2	-0.09	8	62%	-0.03
Meyers Leonard	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.11	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	8	33%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02

Brooklyn Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodions Kurucs	0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.19	0.03	0.02	9	95%	0.20	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.06	0.00	6	83%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caris LeVert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.09,-0.15,0.14,0.14	0.14	-0.05	0.19	-0.00	15	37%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.03	0.00	6	85%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	4	80%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Spencer Dinwiddie	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	19	57%	0.13	2	-0.05	8	50%	-0.07
Taurean Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.06	-0.00	17	50%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dzanan Musa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Harris	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.05	0.00	9	37%	0.02	3	-0.06	6	67%	0.02
Justin Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.7	25.2	14.8	22.2	1.7	34.2	126.2
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BKN +13.7%

BKN +1.5%

BKN +30.3%

BKN +5.7%

MIA -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BKN	NBA	MIA	BKN	NBA
this game	14.4	14.9	14.2	115.3	118.2	109.6
season	14.7	14.1		111.7	108.0
opponent	14.1	14.5		109.4	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	10.3	14.9	16.8	16.3	14.4
BKN	15.4	14.5	13.9	15.7	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Johnson	26	27	0.33	-0.83	1.15	0.06	9	-13	22	13.2	14.8	-1.55	15.2	14.7	0.44
Tyler Herro	60	61	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.13	2	-6	8	14.6	14.0	0.60	14.6	15.3	-0.68
Meyers Leonard	55	57	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.15	-1	-3	2	14.3	14.4	-0.05	14.7	15.1	-0.43
Kendrick Nunn	48	47	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	1	-6	14.3	14.5	-0.19	14.6	15.1	-0.52
Goran Dragic	58	58	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.46	9	-13	22	14.2	14.7	-0.52	15.4	14.1	1.23
Derrick Jones Jr.	48	50	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.42	7	-11	18	13.4	15.3	-1.99	15.5	14.3	1.19
Duncan Robinson	54	55	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.45	-10	6	-16	14.9	13.7	1.20	14.9	14.8	0.13
Bam Adebayo	68	67	-0.92	0.42	-1.34	-0.45	-16	12	-28	14.8	13.4	1.39	14.6	15.4	-0.75
Jimmy Butler	73	73	-0.93	0.43	-1.37	-0.49	-15	11	-26	14.7	13.4	1.30	14.7	15.5	-0.80

Brooklyn Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarrett Allen	54	55	1.10	-0.60	1.70	0.39	24	-20	44	14.4	15.4	-1.06	15.8	12.6	3.18
Taurean Prince	63	64	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.45	16	-12	28	14.6	15.3	-0.69	14.9	13.4	1.55
Spencer Dinwiddie	70	72	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.39	18	-14	32	14.5	15.9	-1.40	15.1	12.5	2.59
Joe Harris	72	71	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.26	21	-17	38	14.6	15.6	-1.05	15.2	12.1	3.17
Caris LeVert	49	47	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.56	-11	15	-26	15.7	14.0	1.71	13.0	15.6	-2.59
Justin Anderson	26	24	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.08	-7	11	-18	15.2	14.8	0.39	11.8	15.2	-3.36
Dzanan Musa	27	25	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.08	-7	11	-18	15.1	14.8	0.28	12.2	15.1	-2.96
Rodions Kurucs	46	46	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.26	4	0	4	14.4	15.3	-0.85	16.3	12.7	3.61
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot	43	43	-0.57	1.07	-1.65	-0.05	-18	22	-40	15.6	14.3	1.26	13.1	15.4	-2.27
DeAndre Jordan	45	43	-0.60	1.10	-1.70	-0.01	-20	24	-44	15.4	14.4	1.06	12.6	15.8	-3.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.27,0.3,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.5,0.48,0.33,0.29,0.19,0.11,0.19,0.07,0.1,0.29,0.33,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 107, ORL 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.25,0.31,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.26,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.19,0.14,0.27,0.3,0.2,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.41,1	90.0%
MIA 70, NYK 72	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.35,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.18,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.21,0.3,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.22,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.29,0.17,0.58,1	89.9%
CHA 100, MIL 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.2,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.33,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.36,0.21,0.43,0.47,1	89.9%