NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	6.1 [592]		MVP	Duncan Robinson (MIA): +17.0%
Philadelphia 76ers	104		Comeback	3.1 [134]		LVP	Al Horford (PHI): -12.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.09	0.08	-0.00	11	62%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kendrick Nunn	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.13	0.12	0.02	0.01	18	62%	0.15	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.09
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.03	0.01	9	68%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.02	16	61%	0.11	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Meyers Leonard	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	7	43%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	11	41%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	11	52%	0.03	4	-0.09	5	80%	0.01

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	16	54%	0.10	2	-0.04	5	80%	-0.00
Furkan Korkmaz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Simmons	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.01	-0.03	13	57%	0.09	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Raul Neto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Matisse Thybulle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	3	83%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
James Ennis III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	17	47%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Joel Embiid	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.04	0.03	19	51%	0.04	1	-0.07	5	100%	0.02
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	6	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.12	-0.12	-0.00	-0.12	0.00	9	50%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	3.4	26.5	14.8	27.3	2.8	38.1	138.1
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +41.2%

PHI -5.1%

MIA +12.6%

PHI -1.9%

MIA +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHI	NBA	MIA	PHI	NBA
this game	15.6	13.7	14.2	110.2	106.1	109.6
season	14.7	14.8		111.7	110.0
opponent	14.1	14.5		108.5	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.1	13.1	17.3	16.0	15.6
PHI	12.0	16.2	13.4	13.3	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Nunn	85	84	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.26	19	-15	34	15.3	17.8	-2.45	14.4	9.6	4.79
Derrick Jones Jr.	68	66	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.31	7	-3	10	14.7	17.7	-2.96	13.7	13.8	-0.10
Bam Adebayo	69	68	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.31	2	2	0	15.8	15.3	0.47	14.4	12.3	2.03
Duncan Robinson	77	78	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.51	-6	10	-16	16.5	12.6	3.85	13.2	16.0	-2.90
Tyler Herro	50	50	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.09	4	0	4	15.9	15.4	0.44	13.3	14.2	-0.91
Jimmy Butler	69	70	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.35	-6	10	-16	15.6	15.7	-0.07	13.1	15.5	-2.41
Meyers Leonard	56	57	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.13	-1	5	-6	16.7	14.3	2.42	13.8	13.7	0.06
Kelly Olynyk	16	17	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.06	1	3	-2	12.4	16.3	-3.83	14.8	13.5	1.23

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	64	65	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.49	21	-25	46	12.9	15.4	-2.46	16.6	13.7	2.89
Tobias Harris	79	79	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.46	16	-20	36	13.8	13.6	0.21	15.9	14.4	1.52
James Ennis III	32	33	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.05	-2	-2	0	11.7	14.8	-3.10	16.0	15.5	0.54
Raul Neto	12	11	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.09	-8	4	-12	16.9	13.3	3.61	12.4	16.1	-3.69
Furkan Korkmaz	15	15	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.05	-8	4	-12	16.1	13.3	2.74	13.9	16.0	-2.10
Josh Richardson	73	72	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.39	3	-7	10	14.7	11.0	3.74	16.1	14.4	1.66
Ben Simmons	86	87	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.48	4	-8	12	13.3	16.9	-3.61	16.1	12.4	3.69
Matisse Thybulle	31	31	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.05	-14	10	-24	12.0	14.5	-2.51	15.2	15.9	-0.70
Mike Scott	24	24	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	0.04	-21	17	-38	14.6	13.5	1.11	14.0	16.2	-2.18
Joel Embiid	74	73	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.29	-11	7	-18	14.4	11.8	2.59	15.0	17.6	-2.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.19,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 100, DEN 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.25,0.31,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.1%
DET 119, MIA 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.67,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.27,0.29,0.23,0.11,0.15,0.27,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.2%
ATL 133, CLE 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.71,0.76,0.7,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.7,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.24,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.19,0.18,0.26,0.22,0.14,0.09,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.1%