NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	121		Excitement	9.6 [115]		MVP	Duncan Robinson (MIA): +57.1%
Miami Heat	135		Comeback	51.6 [53]		LVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): -12.4%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jabari Parker	0.25	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.07	0.15	-0.03	12	55%	0.25	0	0.00	5	60%	0.01
De'Andre Hunter	0.24	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.21	0.04	0.01	17	74%	0.24	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Allen Crabbe	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.05	0.00	3	87%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alex Len	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.00	6	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trae Young	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.03	0.02	-0.05	19	49%	0.14	4	-0.10	5	80%	0.00
Damian Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	1	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Cam Reddish	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	13	54%	0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre' Bembry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	5	40%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Huerter	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.04	-0.08	-0.01	8	56%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruno Fernando	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.03	-0.09	0.02	10	60%	0.03	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.44,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57	0.57	0.38	0.23	0.04	16	106%	0.57	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Nunn	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.19	0.05	-0.02	26	63%	0.29	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.04
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.02	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
KZ Okpala	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daryl Macon	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.05	-0.00	19	44%	0.09	3	-0.09	7	43%	-0.10
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.15	-0.09	0.07	18	73%	0.13	4	-0.14	5	80%	0.00
Chris Silva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.01	9	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	5	17%	-0.08	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.14	-0.02	-0.03	6	0%	-0.10	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.2	2.3	25.6	15.4	26.4	2.4	33.3	2.4	12.5	145.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +1.0%

MIA +4.8%

MIA +24.6%

MIA +17.3%

MIA +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.3	14.9	14.2	112.0	122.7	109.6
season	13.8	14.7		106.6	111.7
opponent	14.5	14.0		108.9	113.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ATL	12.5	12.1	14.7	18.4	14.5	14.3
MIA	15.2	15.6	15.3	13.1	15.5	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeAndre' Bembry	30	30	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.07	5	-19	24	12.4	15.0	-2.60	14.9	14.9	0.01
Kevin Huerter	52	54	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.07	4	-18	22	14.2	14.3	-0.05	15.0	14.8	0.21
Bruno Fernando	15	16	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.14	6	-20	26	11.5	14.7	-3.19	16.2	14.7	1.59
Jabari Parker	62	63	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.35	-12	-2	-10	14.4	14.1	0.33	15.0	14.7	0.37
Damian Jones	25	27	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.08	-3	-11	8	14.7	14.2	0.52	16.0	14.5	1.52
Cam Reddish	49	47	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.09	-5	-9	4	14.1	14.4	-0.28	14.9	14.9	0.04
Allen Crabbe	45	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.18	2	-16	18	14.1	14.4	-0.32	14.4	15.3	-0.89
Alex Len	45	45	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.09	-11	-3	-8	14.8	13.9	0.86	14.3	15.3	-0.94
De'Andre Hunter	82	83	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.04	-17	3	-20	14.5	13.7	0.72	14.8	15.2	-0.39
Trae Young	81	84	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	0.08	-24	10	-34	14.9	12.4	2.49	15.0	14.6	0.41
Vince Carter	54	54	-0.98	0.48	-1.47	-0.54	-15	1	-16	14.4	14.1	0.33	14.5	15.3	-0.77

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmy Butler	85	84	1.08	-0.58	1.66	0.14	32	-18	50	14.6	16.0	-1.44	15.2	11.1	4.11
Derrick Jones Jr.	71	68	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.31	16	-2	18	14.9	14.9	-0.09	15.0	13.0	1.95
Bam Adebayo	90	89	0.70	-0.20	0.89	-0.07	26	-12	38	14.5	16.8	-2.33	14.6	12.6	2.06
Duncan Robinson	88	86	0.68	-0.18	0.87	-0.08	26	-12	38	14.4	16.7	-2.30	14.9	11.9	2.97
Kendrick Nunn	88	87	0.66	-0.16	0.81	-0.08	25	-11	36	14.8	15.3	-0.48	14.5	13.4	1.05
Meyers Leonard	24	24	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.06	9	5	4	15.9	14.6	1.26	14.0	14.4	-0.36
KZ Okpala	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	16	-18	16.0	14.9	1.12	16.0	14.3	1.74
Daryl Macon	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	16	-18	16.0	14.9	1.12	16.0	14.3	1.74
Chris Silva	15	14	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.11	-10	24	-34	16.6	14.6	1.98	11.1	14.8	-3.68
Kelly Olynyk	38	39	-0.60	1.10	-1.69	-0.01	-20	34	-54	15.8	14.4	1.41	11.5	15.8	-4.33
Tyler Herro	49	47	-0.82	1.32	-2.15	0.06	-30	44	-74	15.5	14.4	1.12	12.7	15.5	-2.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.74,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.51,0.58,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.33,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.27,0.2,0.45,0.33,0.05,0.54,0.8,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 107, NOH 114	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.46,0.56,0.63,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.62,0.43,0.25,0.32,0.47,0.24,0.33,0.39,0.28,0.1,0.42,0.54,0.61,0.71,0.96,0.95,1	86.3%
NOH 98, SAS 105	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.44,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.54,0.43,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.25,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.46,0.55,0.54,0.77,0.98,1	86.2%
NOK 102, MIA 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.43,0.32,0.41,0.47,0.28,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.16,0.54,0.69,0.94,0.91,0.99,1	86.1%