NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	105		Excitement	7.0 [443]		MVP	Anthony Davis (LAL): +15.7%
Denver Nuggets	96		Comeback	1.3 [525]		LVP	Will Barton (DEN): -12.0%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Davis	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.14,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.16	0.06	0.09	-0.01	18	56%	0.18	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.05
Rajon Rondo	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	-0.00	6	79%	0.16	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Alex Caruso	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.06	-0.02	3	75%	0.10	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.04
Troy Daniels	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	3	86%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Dwight Howard	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	54%	0.07	1	-0.03	8	37%	-0.08
JaVale McGee	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.04	0.04	18	60%	0.09	4	-0.13	6	100%	0.03
Kyle Kuzma	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.00	6	43%	0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.00	12	21%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	-0.01	14	68%	0.22	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerami Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.01,0	0.00	0.06	-0.06	-0.01	17	55%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	11	27%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.12,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.00	-0.01	12	43%	0.01	5	-0.10	6	83%	0.05
Will Barton	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	11	23%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.3	30.5	16.5	28.5	2.4	33.6	137.9
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +52.5%

DEN -10.3%

LAL +22.8%

DEN -15.3%

LAL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DEN	NBA	LAL	DEN	NBA
this game	13.7	15.0	14.2	104.0	96.0	109.6
season	14.2	15.0		111.8	112.0
opponent	14.5	14.4		110.7	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.0	14.1	12.7	13.9	13.7
DEN	13.7	15.3	15.6	15.5	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alex Caruso	32	31	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.23	11	-2	13	14.2	13.4	0.84	15.7	14.7	1.04
Anthony Davis	79	78	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.18	11	-2	13	12.9	16.3	-3.32	15.0	15.1	-0.13
Kyle Kuzma	39	38	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.13	7	2	5	14.4	13.2	1.12	15.1	15.0	0.10
LeBron James	78	77	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.17	4	5	-1	14.1	12.2	1.89	15.1	14.8	0.27
Danny Green	67	67	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.22	2	7	-5	13.3	14.4	-1.11	14.9	15.1	-0.20
Troy Daniels	21	20	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.06	6	3	3	12.6	13.9	-1.33	13.8	15.3	-1.43
Rajon Rondo	52	51	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.03	8	1	7	13.9	13.4	0.44	15.0	15.0	-0.06
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	69	70	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.09	3	6	-3	12.8	15.5	-2.67	14.7	15.7	-0.97
Dwight Howard	37	37	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.15	-2	11	-13	15.2	12.8	2.35	15.8	14.5	1.22
JaVale McGee	31	31	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	-0.02	-5	14	-19	14.3	13.4	0.84	14.8	15.1	-0.31

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monte Morris	24	24	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-7	5	16.0	14.7	1.27	15.5	13.1	2.40
Paul Millsap	64	64	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-7	5	14.8	15.3	-0.49	13.1	14.7	-1.58
Malik Beasley	27	28	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.10	-3	-6	3	15.1	14.9	0.17	14.5	13.4	1.09
Mason Plumlee	26	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.12	-3	-6	3	14.7	15.1	-0.40	15.1	13.1	1.98
Gary Harris	70	70	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.10	-4	-5	1	14.9	15.1	-0.20	13.0	15.1	-2.05
Will Barton	78	78	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.18	-2	-7	5	14.9	15.1	-0.19	13.9	12.8	1.15
Nikola Jokic	74	73	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-3	-3	15.1	14.7	0.40	13.1	15.1	-1.98
Jerami Grant	36	37	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.10	-7	-2	-5	15.3	14.8	0.49	14.7	13.1	1.58
Juancho Hernangomez	25	26	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	0	-9	15.2	14.9	0.23	13.7	13.7	0.08
Jamal Murray	76	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	-2	-5	14.7	16.0	-1.27	13.1	15.5	-2.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.23,0.33,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.25,0.16,0.33,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 95, ATL 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.37,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.28,0.21,0.26,0.21,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.05,0.03,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.11,0.09,0.01,0	92.2%
IND 82, CLE 78	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.4,0.32,0.15,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.19,0.36,0.23,0.16,0	92.1%
MIL 87, PHI 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.3,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.34,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.15,0.21,0.17,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.31,0.2,0.07,0.1,0.09,0	92.0%