NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	109		Excitement	8.6 [210]		MVP	Evan Fournier (ORL): +44.2%
Orlando Magic	111		Comeback	7.1 [231]		LVP	Nikola Vucevic (ORL): -23.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.03	0.10	-0.01	13	48%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.07	0.01	15	64%	0.20	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Patty Mills	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	9	68%	0.12	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Jakob Poeltl	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.06	0.00	4	90%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Marco Belinelli	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	6	40%	0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Rudy Gay	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.04	12	58%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	6	83%	0.10	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0	-0.00	0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.12	2	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Bryn Forbes	-0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	13	46%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.1	-0.05	-0.07	-0.02	4	37%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.21,0.46,0.44	0.44	0.17	0.32	0.04	15	76%	0.53	2	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.33,0.41,0.41,0.39	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.00	13	69%	0.41	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.05
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.04	0.09	-0.03	8	59%	0.16	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Markelle Fultz	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.01	8	57%	0.08	0	0.00	7	100%	0.03
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	8	59%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Michael Carter-Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	43%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Wes Iwundu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.04	0.01	15	37%	-0.02	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.03
Mo Bamba	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.13	-0.11	-0.00	16	29%	-0.15	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	25.1	14.8	27.4	2.3	36.0	132.3
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -11.9%

ORL +36.8%

ORL +13.9%

ORL +7.2%

ORL +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ORL	NBA	SAS	ORL	NBA
this game	15.5	14.8	14.2	114.7	116.8	109.6
season	14.1	14.7		110.8	107.1
opponent	14.2	14.2		108.9	112.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.7	12.9	16.0	16.9	15.5
ORL	14.7	15.9	13.5	15.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marco Belinelli	33	33	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.02	9	-11	20	13.7	16.5	-2.84	16.0	14.1	1.89
Rudy Gay	42	43	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.07	9	-11	20	13.0	17.5	-4.48	15.7	14.0	1.61
Jakob Poeltl	34	35	0.16	-0.66	0.81	-0.14	10	-12	22	13.5	16.7	-3.19	16.1	14.0	2.18
Patty Mills	37	39	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.25	13	-15	28	13.5	16.9	-3.38	16.6	13.5	3.05
Dejounte Murray	40	40	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	4	-10	17.1	14.4	2.68	14.0	15.3	-1.33
Derrick White	45	45	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.43	6	-8	14	14.1	16.8	-2.69	14.5	15.0	-0.53
LaMarcus Aldridge	61	60	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.21	-10	8	-18	16.7	13.5	3.19	14.0	16.1	-2.18
Bryn Forbes	59	57	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.21	-15	13	-28	16.5	14.1	2.40	14.0	15.9	-1.88
Trey Lyles	53	52	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.37	-11	9	-20	17.5	13.0	4.48	14.0	15.7	-1.61
DeMar DeRozan	71	71	-0.87	0.37	-1.24	-0.43	-15	13	-28	16.7	12.0	4.75	14.4	15.8	-1.37

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Vucevic	72	74	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.41	16	-14	30	14.0	17.2	-3.23	16.2	13.1	3.09
Evan Fournier	62	65	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.33	14	-12	26	14.0	16.2	-2.21	16.2	14.1	2.16
Aaron Gordon	73	75	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.42	5	-3	8	14.8	14.8	-0.01	15.0	17.6	-2.66
Markelle Fultz	48	51	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.22	11	-9	20	13.7	15.9	-2.14	16.3	14.7	1.53
Al-Farouq Aminu	59	60	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.06	8	-6	14	14.0	16.1	-2.12	16.6	13.7	2.86
Terrence Ross	55	52	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.47	-12	14	-26	15.9	13.1	2.80	14.7	16.5	-1.76
Michael Carter-Williams	18	18	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.07	-1	3	-4	15.1	14.7	0.35	14.9	15.7	-0.74
D.J. Augustin	50	47	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.15	-6	8	-14	15.4	14.0	1.42	15.2	15.9	-0.66
Wes Iwundu	16	14	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.12	-13	15	-28	16.6	14.4	2.16	11.8	16.2	-4.41
Mo Bamba	23	21	-0.37	0.87	-1.25	0.04	-14	16	-30	17.2	14.0	3.23	13.1	16.2	-3.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.26,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.25,0.2,0.26,0.36,0.24,0.33,0.42,0.48,0.59,0.53,0.44,0.56,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.34,0.22,0.15,0.52,0.78,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 97, TOR 107	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.25,0.17,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.38,0.26,0.18,0.2,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.72,0.91,0.96,1	91.0%
MIA 77, CHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.26,0.35,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.38,0.78,0.8,0.99,1	90.6%
MIN 80, NOK 84	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.17,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.23,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.38,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.31,0.35,0.46,0.31,0.45,0.78,0.92,1	90.5%