NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	100		Excitement	7.8 [320]		MVP	Patty Mills (SAS): +23.8%
Atlanta Hawks	108		Comeback	6.0 [152]		LVP	Dejounte Murray (SAS): -24.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patty Mills	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.24	0.17	0.04	-0.03	6	107%	0.24	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Trey Lyles	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	4	67%	0.06	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.03
DeMar DeRozan	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.01	16	63%	0.17	3	-0.12	3	67%	-0.00
Bryn Forbes	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	-0.01	-0.02	16	46%	0.04	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Derrick White	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	36%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	14	47%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jakob Poeltl	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	0.00	10	36%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.00	10	25%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lonnie Walker IV	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	-0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.14	-0.12	-0.00	7	19%	-0.11	3	-0.13	2	50%	-0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
De'Andre Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.09	-0.00	13	57%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Trae Young	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.11	-0.00	23	56%	0.22	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.03
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.07	-0.00	7	47%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Cam Reddish	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	6	86%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Jabari Parker	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	14	63%	0.10	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Damian Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruno Fernando	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alex Len	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	20%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Kevin Huerter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	0.00	9	39%	0.03	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre' Bembry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	6	50%	0.02	5	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.7	26.2	14.8	30.0	1.8	42.0	140.8
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +48.9%

SAS -5.5%

ATL +6.7%

ATL +0.5%

SAS -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ATL	NBA	SAS	ATL	NBA
this game	14.3	13.7	14.2	96.2	105.9	109.6
season	14.1	13.8		110.8	106.6
opponent	14.0	14.2		113.9	112.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.7	14.1	15.3	13.0	14.3
ATL	12.4	14.2	12.3	15.8	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick White	42	41	0.34	-0.84	1.18	0.07	9	-17	26	15.5	13.5	2.02	11.7	15.0	-3.26
Patty Mills	60	60	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.08	6	-14	20	12.9	16.2	-3.23	13.2	14.4	-1.19
Lonnie Walker IV	7	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-7	6	15.1	14.2	0.91	9.7	13.9	-4.24
Jakob Poeltl	31	31	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	-2	-4	15.4	13.8	1.60	11.7	14.5	-2.75
Rudy Gay	55	56	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-8	8	14.7	13.9	0.76	13.6	13.7	-0.11
DeMar DeRozan	78	75	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.19	-2	-6	4	13.6	16.3	-2.63	14.7	10.8	3.92
Bryn Forbes	63	63	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-2	-4	14.0	14.7	-0.72	15.3	11.1	4.22
LaMarcus Aldridge	73	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.30	-2	-6	4	13.8	15.4	-1.60	14.5	11.7	2.75
Trey Lyles	44	42	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.19	-8	0	-8	14.3	14.3	0.03	13.1	14.1	-1.00
Marco Belinelli	26	26	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.25	-12	4	-16	16.3	13.6	2.73	12.5	14.1	-1.55
Dejounte Murray	41	39	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.22	-18	10	-28	14.8	14.0	0.84	13.9	13.5	0.47

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
De'Andre Hunter	75	75	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.25	11	-3	14	14.8	10.6	4.22	14.2	14.5	-0.26
Vince Carter	35	35	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.29	6	2	4	13.4	13.8	-0.43	14.1	14.4	-0.32
Kevin Huerter	54	52	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.16	9	-1	10	13.3	14.1	-0.77	14.5	14.1	0.48
Bruno Fernando	31	31	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.05	12	-4	16	14.7	13.2	1.47	13.6	14.6	-0.98
DeAndre' Bembry	45	45	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.34	0	8	-8	11.8	15.1	-3.32	13.7	14.8	-1.07
Damian Jones	41	41	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.25	0	8	-8	12.3	14.5	-2.20	14.4	14.2	0.19
Trae Young	61	64	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.08	2	6	-4	14.6	12.3	2.32	13.9	14.9	-1.06
Cam Reddish	59	63	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	7	-6	13.7	13.6	0.13	14.4	14.1	0.29
Jabari Parker	66	67	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.08	4	4	0	13.9	13.2	0.67	14.6	13.8	0.76
Tyrone Wallace	14	15	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.01	-1	9	-10	10.4	14.2	-3.74	16.2	14.0	2.22
Alex Len	29	32	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.04	-4	12	-16	14.4	13.4	1.01	14.8	14.1	0.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.47,0.38,0.24,0.17,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.38,0.48,0.33,0.32,0.59,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.96,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 106, CLE 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.76,0.83,0.9,0.93,0.97,0.98,1	93.9%
MEM 78, ORL 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.3,0.33,0.38,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.84,0.91,0.95,1	92.2%
HOU 110, DAL 117	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.3,0.23,0.26,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.37,0.7,0.8,0.83,0.93,0.93,0.99,1,1	92.0%