NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	101		Excitement	7.5 [404]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (SAS): +17.1%
Houston Rockets	108		Comeback	2.2 [733]		LVP	Brandon Knight (HOU): -8.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.17	0.07	0.06	-0.04	24	53%	0.19	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Rudy Gay	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.04	0.14	0.01	9	59%	0.20	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Davis Bertans	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.02	7	79%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Bryn Forbes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.01	0.03	10	60%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.00	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0	0.04	-0.04	-0.00	18	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0,0,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	6	42%	0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.03	0.14	0.02	20	45%	0.16	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	11	70%	0.16	3	-0.07	8	62%	0.01
James Harden	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.04	0.03	34	51%	0.16	3	-0.09	9	89%	0.02
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.04	-0.01	14	54%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	1	150%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danuel House Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Brandon Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	1.8	23.5	14.4	28.0	1.5	25.7	120.7
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -7.8%

HOU +8.4%

HOU +47.9%

SAS -0.8%

HOU +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	14.9	15.4	14.3	106.3	113.7	109.3
season	14.8	14.8		111.7	114.0
opponent	14.4	14.4		109.3	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.2	16.2	14.5	13.6	14.9
HOU	14.2	14.4	13.7	19.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jakob Poeltl	32	32	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.15	4	-11	15	16.3	14.2	2.07	15.1	15.6	-0.48
Derrick White	54	53	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.19	3	-10	13	14.6	15.3	-0.72	16.5	14.1	2.40
Rudy Gay	67	67	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.22	3	-10	13	14.6	15.7	-1.20	16.0	14.0	2.05
Bryn Forbes	55	56	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.25	3	-10	13	14.3	15.8	-1.50	16.6	13.7	2.87
Davis Bertans	46	46	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.19	-1	-6	5	15.8	14.1	1.66	14.5	16.3	-1.81
Marco Belinelli	42	42	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.08	-9	2	-11	15.9	14.1	1.79	13.9	16.6	-2.74
Patty Mills	41	42	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.10	-10	3	-13	15.3	14.6	0.72	14.1	16.5	-2.40
LaMarcus Aldridge	63	63	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.14	-11	4	-15	14.2	16.3	-2.07	15.6	15.1	0.48
DeMar DeRozan	75	74	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.15	-17	10	-27	14.6	16.0	-1.45	15.4	15.4	0.04

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	80	81	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.17	14	-7	21	15.3	16.0	-0.70	14.8	15.4	-0.61
Eric Gordon	76	75	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.24	6	1	5	14.8	17.7	-2.84	14.5	16.3	-1.83
Danuel House Jr.	54	55	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.15	6	1	5	15.1	15.9	-0.78	15.2	14.5	0.74
Clint Capela	69	68	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.33	-1	8	-9	15.8	14.3	1.47	14.7	15.4	-0.75
Gary Clark	19	19	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.02	9	-2	11	13.7	15.8	-2.09	15.1	14.9	0.25
PJ Tucker	67	67	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.26	0	7	-7	16.2	13.6	2.61	14.5	15.9	-1.35
Nene	26	27	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.03	8	-1	9	14.3	15.8	-1.47	15.4	14.7	0.75
Gerald Green	61	60	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.28	-4	11	-15	16.0	14.4	1.60	14.9	14.8	0.12
Brandon Knight	23	23	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	10	-13	16.1	15.2	0.89	16.6	14.4	2.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.49,0.55,0.68,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.86,0.89,0.87,0.81,0.46,0.56,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 97, MEM 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.7,0.74,0.81,0.74,0.74,0.81,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.82,0.83,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.86,0.71,0.85,0.84,1	91.0%
MIL 107, NYK 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.81,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.85,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.89,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.78,0.86,0.71,0.94,0.99,1	90.7%
DET 101, NJN 105	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.81,0.9,0.96,0.92,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.95,0.87,0.9,0.64,0.78,0.83,1	90.5%