NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	91		Excitement	8.8 [198]		MVP	Bobby Portis (CHI): +14.6%
Orlando Magic	97		Comeback	2.2 [683]		LVP	Kris Dunn (CHI): -28.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Portis	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.09	0.00	11	58%	0.15	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Justin Holiday	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.01	-0.01	11	72%	0.27	2	-0.17	3	67%	-0.01
Robin Lopez	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	7	58%	0.12	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.04
Lauri Markkanen	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,0.04,0.04	-0.07	0.10	0.00	10	32%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Arcidiacono	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jabari Parker	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille Harrison	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wendell Carter Jr.	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	4	70%	0.02	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Zach LaVine	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.04,0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.2	-0.02	-0.18	-0.00	18	61%	0.04	6	-0.23	2	50%	-0.01
Kris Dunn	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.28	-0.07	-0.21	0.00	5	50%	0.00	4	-0.29	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
D.J. Augustin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.05	0.01	8	75%	0.15	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.11,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.06	0.01	21	59%	0.34	2	-0.22	2	50%	-0.05
Mo Bamba	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	6	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jonathan Isaac	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	53%	0.08	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Jerian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	67%	0.10	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	11	31%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.05	-0.11	0.00	9	36%	-0.14	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.11	-0.13	0.02	13	38%	-0.08	4	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.5	25.3	14.7	26.0	2.5	38.2	135.8
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI -25.7%

ORL +9.2%

ORL +50.3%

ORL +17.1%

CHI -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ORL	NBA	CHI	ORL	NBA
this game	14.0	15.7	14.3	93.8	100.0	109.3
season	14.6	14.9		104.2	107.2
opponent	14.3	14.3		107.2	112.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.5	14.0	13.8	14.7	14.0
ORL	13.7	14.3	19.0	16.6	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille Harrison	27	26	0.46	-0.96	1.43	0.14	11	-17	28	12.7	14.5	-1.72	15.4	15.8	-0.45
Bobby Portis	45	43	0.27	-0.77	1.03	0.15	4	-10	14	14.6	13.4	1.20	15.5	15.9	-0.40
Robin Lopez	58	55	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.07	4	-10	14	15.0	12.4	2.58	15.2	16.4	-1.18
Jabari Parker	11	11	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.09	-9	3	-12	14.5	13.9	0.54	9.3	16.5	-7.26
Ryan Arcidiacono	46	46	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.04	-9	3	-12	14.1	13.8	0.29	16.0	15.5	0.55
Kris Dunn	53	52	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.27	-2	-4	2	13.6	14.4	-0.74	15.5	15.9	-0.41
Zach LaVine	78	80	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.36	-2	-4	2	14.5	11.8	2.72	16.4	12.6	3.79
Wendell Carter Jr.	35	38	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.24	-11	5	-16	12.7	14.7	-2.02	16.5	15.2	1.25
Justin Holiday	76	76	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.52	-7	1	-8	13.9	14.1	-0.15	16.0	14.6	1.39
Lauri Markkanen	56	58	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.50	-9	3	-12	13.2	15.0	-1.85	15.9	15.5	0.37

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Evan Fournier	59	61	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.42	12	-6	18	16.1	15.1	0.95	14.5	13.1	1.34
Jonathan Isaac	50	52	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.41	3	3	0	16.8	14.6	2.21	13.3	14.8	-1.53
D.J. Augustin	64	64	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.26	8	-2	10	16.4	14.5	1.90	14.4	13.2	1.16
Nikola Vucevic	65	64	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.50	-3	9	-12	16.3	14.5	1.81	14.3	13.3	0.98
Terrence Ross	61	60	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	2	2	15.3	16.4	-1.17	13.6	14.5	-0.91
Mo Bamba	32	33	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.18	9	-3	12	14.5	16.3	-1.81	13.3	14.3	-0.98
Aaron Gordon	77	75	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.00	1	5	-4	15.5	16.7	-1.25	14.3	12.9	1.38
Jerian Grant	33	33	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.07	-2	8	-10	14.5	16.4	-1.90	13.2	14.4	-1.16
Jonathon Simmons	44	43	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	8	-10	15.0	16.3	-1.22	14.1	13.9	0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.74,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.69,0.77,0.73,0.63,0.66,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.6,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.57,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.66,0.39,0.64,0.55,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 86, LAL 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.81,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.47,0.4,0.58,0.38,0.55,0.67,0.42,1	90.8%
NOH 87, MIA 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.79,0.63,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.68,0.59,0.47,0.6,0.44,0.61,0.45,0.73,1	90.7%
CLE 93, CHA 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.78,0.69,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.53,0.64,0.55,0.58,1	90.3%